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Creators/Authors contains: "Mostafavi, Ali"

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  1. Abstract Understanding the relationship between urban form and structure and spatial inequality of property flood risk has been a longstanding challenge in urban planning and emergency management. Here we explore eight urban form and structure features to explain variability in spatial inequality of property flood risk among 2567 US counties. Using datasets related to human mobility and facility distribution, we identify notable variation in spatial inequality of property flood risk, particularly in coastline and metropolitan counties. The results reveal variations in spatial inequality of property flood risk can be explained based on principal components of development density, economic activity, and centrality and segregation. The classification and regression tree model further demonstrates how these principal components interact and form pathways that explain spatial inequality of property flood risk. The findings underscore the critical role of urban planning in mitigating flood risk inequality, offering valuable insights for crafting integrated strategies as urbanization progresses. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025
  2. Abstract The resilience of internet service is crucial for ensuring consistent communication, situational awareness, facilitating emergency response in our digitally-dependent society. However, due to empirical data constraints, there has been limited research on internet service disruptions during extreme weather events. To bridge this gap, this study utilizes observational datasets on internet performance to quantitatively assess the extent of internet disruption during two recent extreme weather events. Taking Harris County in the United States as the study region, we jointly analyzed the hazard severity and the associated internet disruptions in the context of two extreme weather events. The results show that the hazard events significantly impacted regional internet connectivity. There exists a pronounced temporal synchronicity between the magnitude of disruption and hazard severity: as the severity of hazards intensifies, internet disruptions correspondingly escalate, and eventually return to baseline levels post-event. The spatial analyses show that internet service disruptions can happen even in areas that are not directly impacted by hazards, demonstrating that the repercussions of hazards extend beyond the immediate area of impact. This interplay of temporal synchronization and spatial variance underscores the complex relationships between hazard severity and Internet disruption. Furthermore, the socio-demographic analysis suggests that vulnerable communities, already grappling with myriad challenges, face exacerbated service disruptions during these hazard events, emphasizing the need for prioritized disaster mitigation strategies and interventions for improving the resilience of internet services. To the best of our knowledge, this research is among the first studies to examine the Internet disruptions during hazardous events using a quantitative observational dataset. The insights obtained hold significant implications for city administrators, guiding them towards more resilient and equitable infrastructure planning. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025
  3. Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 1, 2025
  4. Abstract Infrastructure resilience plays an important role in mitigating the negative impacts of natural hazards by ensuring the continued accessibility and availability of resources. Increasingly, equity is recognized as essential for infrastructure resilience. Yet, after about a decade of research on equity in infrastructure resilience, what is missing is a systematic overview of the state of the art and a research agenda across different infrastructures and hazards. To address this gap, this paper presents a systematic review of equity literature on infrastructure resilience in relation to natural hazard events. In our systematic review of 99 studies, we followed an 8-dimensional assessment framework that recognizes 4 equity definitions including distributional-demographic, distributional-spatial, procedural, and capacity equity. Significant findings show that (1) the majority of studies found were located in the US, (2) interest in equity in infrastructure resilience has been exponentially rising, (3) most data collection methods used descriptive and open-data, particularly with none of the non-US studies using human mobility data, (4) limited quantitative studies used non-linear analysis such as agent-based modeling and gravity networks, (5) distributional equity is mostly studied through disruptions in power, water, and transportation caused by flooding and tropical cyclones, and (6) other equity aspects, such as procedural equity, remain understudied. We propose that future research directions could quantify the social costs of infrastructure resilience and advocate a better integration of equity into resilience decision-making. This study fills a critical gap in how equity considerations can be integrated into infrastructure resilience against natural hazards, providing a comprehensive overview of the field and developing future research directions to enhance societal outcomes during and after disasters. As such, this paper is meant to inform and inspire researchers, engineers, and community leaders to understand the equity implications of their work and to embed equity at the heart of infrastructure resilience plans. 
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  5. Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 1, 2025
  6. Free, publicly-accessible full text available June 1, 2025
  7. Abstract Timely, accurate, and reliable information is essential for decision-makers, emergency managers, and infrastructure operators during flood events. This study demonstrates that a proposed machine learning model,MaxFloodCast, trained on physics-based hydrodynamic simulations in Harris County, offers efficient and interpretable flood inundation depth predictions. Achieving an average$$R^2$$ R 2 of 0.949 and a Root Mean Square Error of 0.61 ft (0.19 m) on unseen data, it proves reliable in forecasting peak flood inundation depths. Validated against Hurricane Harvey and Tropical Storm Imelda,MaxFloodCastshows the potential in supporting near-time floodplain management and emergency operations. The model’s interpretability aids decision-makers in offering critical information to inform flood mitigation strategies, to prioritize areas with critical facilities and to examine how rainfall in other watersheds influences flood exposure in one area. TheMaxFloodCastmodel enables accurate and interpretable inundation depth predictions while significantly reducing computational time, thereby supporting emergency response efforts and flood risk management more effectively. 
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  8. There has been significant progress in improving the performance of graph neural networks (GNNs) through enhancements in graph data, model architecture design, and training strategies. For fairness in graphs, recent studies achieve fair representations and predictions through either graph data pre-processing (e.g., node feature masking, and topology rewiring) or fair training strategies (e.g., regularization, adversarial debiasing, and fair contrastive learning). How to achieve fairness in graphs from the model architecture perspective is less explored. More importantly, GNNs exhibit worse fairness performance compared to multilayer perception since their model architecture (i.e., neighbor aggregation) amplifies biases. To this end, we aim to achieve fairness via a new GNN architecture. We propose Fair Message Passing (FMP) designed within a unified optimization framework for GNNs. Notably, FMP explicitly renders sensitive attribute usage in forward propagation for node classification task using cross-entropy loss without data pre-processing. In FMP, the aggregation is first adopted to utilize neighbors' information and then the bias mitigation step explicitly pushes demographic group node presentation centers together.In this way, FMP scheme can aggregate useful information from neighbors and mitigate bias to achieve better fairness and prediction tradeoff performance. Experiments on node classification tasks demonstrate that the proposed FMP outperforms several baselines in terms of fairness and accuracy on three real-world datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/zhimengj0326/FMP. 
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