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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring concentrated rainfall and flooding to the western United States (US) and are hypothesized to have supported sustained hydroclimatic changes in the past. However, their ephemeral nature makes it challenging to document ARs in climate models and estimate their contribution to hydroclimate changes recorded by time-averaged paleoclimate archives. We present new climate model simulations of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16,000 years before the present), an interval characterized by widespread wetness in the western US, that demonstrate increased AR frequency and winter precipitation sourced from the southeastern North Pacific. These changes are amplified with freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic, indicating that North Atlantic cooling associated with weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key driver of HS1 climate in this region. As recent observations suggest potential weakening of AMOC, our identified connection between North Atlantic climate and northeast Pacific AR activity has implications for future western US hydroclimate.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available November 17, 2024
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring concentrated rainfall and flooding to the western United States (US) and are hypothesized to have supported sustained hydroclimatic changes in the past. However, their ephemeral nature makes it challenging to document ARs in climate models and estimate their contribution to hydroclimate changes recorded by time-averaged paleoclimate archives. We present new climate model simulations of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16,000 years before the present), an interval characterized by widespread wetness in the western US, that demonstrate increased AR frequency and winter precipitation sourced from the southeastern North Pacific. These changes are amplified with freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic, indicating that North Atlantic cooling associated with weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key driver of HS1 climate in this region. As recent observations suggest potential weakening of AMOC, our identified connection between North Atlantic climate and northeast Pacific AR activity has implications for future western US hydroclimate.
Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 15, 2024 -
Very high tropical alpine ice cores provide a distinct paleoclimate record for climate changes in the middle and upper troposphere. However, the climatic interpretation of a key proxy, the stable water oxygen isotopic ratio in ice cores (δ18Oice), remains an outstanding problem. Here, combining proxy records with climate models, modern satellite measurements, and radiative-convective equilibrium theory, we show that the tropical δ18Oiceis an indicator of the temperature of the middle and upper troposphere, with a glacial cooling of −7.35° ± 1.1°C (66% CI). Moreover, it severs as a “Goldilocks-type” indicator of global mean surface temperature change, providing the first estimate of glacial stage cooling that is independent of marine proxies as −5.9° ± 1.2°C. Combined with all estimations available gives the maximum likelihood estimate of glacial cooling as −5.85° ± 0.51°C.
Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 8, 2024 -
Abstract Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene.
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Abstract Speleothem initial uranium isotope ratios ((234U/238U)i) can be influenced by processes along the seepage water flow‐path including alpha‐recoil into porewater during238U decay and hostrock weathering, the balance of which can reflect the infiltration rate. Thus, speleothem (234U/238U)imay provide information about past changes in rainfall amounts. However, the utility of (234U/238U)ias a paleo‐infiltration proxy has only been explored in a limited set of rainfall regimes. We present a speleothem (234U/238U)irecord from Mawmluh Cave in northeast India, an area influenced by the Indian Summer Monsoon, covering 1964–2012 CE. Speleothem (234U/238U)iwas relatively constant from 1964 to 1984 but then linearly increased by 0.05 over ∼15 years, a trend that does not correspond with observed rainfall changes. To evaluate potential drivers of (234U/238U)ivariability, we model the evolution of water (234U/238U) in a simple karst system using an advection‐reaction model parameterized by Mawmluh Cave variables. Although varying infiltration influences modeled water (234U/238U), the larger, sustained change observed in the speleothem record can only be modeled by varying the U concentration and (234U/238U) of the weathering hostrock. This suggests that larger shifts in speleothem (234U/238U)imay result from flow path changes, bringing waters in contact with hostrock of variable U characteristics. Consideration of published Mawmluh Cave records suggests that these mechanisms may also explain variability in stalagmite (234U/238U)ion precessional timescales. Further examination of speleothems (234U/238U)ifrom climates characterized by high rainfall and extensive weathering is warranted to better constrain the controls on (234U/238U)iin these dynamic environments.