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Abstract While it is commonly accepted that ecosystem dynamics are nonlinear, what is often not acknowledged is that nonlinearity implies scale-dependence. With the increasing availability of high-resolution ecological time series, there is a growing need to understand how scale and resolution in the data affect the construction and interpretation of causal networks—specifically, networks mapping how changes in one variable drive changes in others as part of a shared dynamic system (“dynamic causation”). We use Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a method specifically designed to measure dynamic causation, to study the effects of varying temporal and taxonomic/functional resolution in data when constructing ecological causal networks. As the system is viewed at different scales relationships will appear and disappear. The relationship between data resolution and interaction presence is not random: the temporal scale at which a relationship is uncovered identifies a biologically relevant scale that drives changes in population abundance. Further, causal relationships between taxonomic aggregates (low-resolution) are shown to be influenced by the number of interactions between their component species (high-resolution). Because no single level of resolution captures all the causal links in a system, a more complete understanding requires multiple levels when constructing causal networks. 

Abstract Data-driven, model-free analytics are natural choices for discovery and forecasting of complex, nonlinear systems. Methods that operate in the system state-space require either an explicit multidimensional state-space, or, one approximated from available observations. Since observational data are frequently sampled with noise, it is possible that noise can corrupt the state-space representation degrading analytical performance. Here, we evaluate the synthesis of empirical mode decomposition with empirical dynamic modeling, which we term empirical mode modeling, to increase the information content of state-space representations in the presence of noise. Evaluation of a mathematical, and, an ecologically important geophysical application across three different state-space representations suggests that empirical mode modeling may be a useful technique for data-driven, model-free, state-space analysis in the presence of noise. 

A central tenant of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is nutrient reduction to levels supportive of ecosystem health. A particular focus is phosphorus. We examine links between agricultural production and phosphorus concentration in the Everglades headwaters: Kissimmee River basin and Lake Okeechobee, considered an important source of water for restoration efforts. Over a span of 47 years we find strong correspondence between milk production in Florida and total phosphate in the lake, and, over the last decade, evidence that phosphorus concentrations in the lake water column may have initiated a long-anticipated decline. 

Abstract Frogs are an ecologically diverse and phylogenetically ancient group of anuran amphibians that include important vertebrate cell and developmental model systems, notably the genusXenopus. Here we report a high-quality reference genome sequence for the western clawed frog,Xenopus tropicalis, along with draft chromosome-scale sequences of three distantly related emerging model frog species,Eleutherodactylus coqui,Engystomops pustulosus, andHymenochirus boettgeri. Frog chromosomes have remained remarkably stable since the Mesozoic Era, with limited Robertsonian (i.e., arm-preserving) translocations and end-to-end fusions found among the smaller chromosomes. Conservation of synteny includes conservation of centromere locations, marked by centromeric tandem repeats associated with Cenp-a binding surrounded by pericentromeric LINE/L1 elements. This work explores the structure of chromosomes across frogs, using a dense meiotic linkage map forX. tropicalisand chromatin conformation capture (Hi-C) data for all species. Abundant satellite repeats occupy the unusually long (~20 megabase) terminal regions of each chromosome that coincide with high rates of recombination. Both embryonic and differentiated cells show reproducible associations of centromeric chromatin and of telomeres, reflecting a Rabl-like configuration. Our comparative analyses reveal 13 conserved ancestral anuran chromosomes from which contemporary frog genomes were constructed.