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Abstract A recent study using the first 21 months of the OSNAP time series revealed that the export of dense waters in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic―as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)―can be almost wholly attributed to surface‐forced water mass transformation (SFWMT) in the Irminger and Iceland basins, thus suggesting a minor role for other means of transformation, such as diapycnal mixing. To understand whether this result is valid over a period that exceeds the current observational record, we use four different ocean reanalysis products to investigate the relationship between surface buoyancy forcing and dense water production in this region. We also reexplore this relationship with the now available 6‐year OSNAP time series. Our analysis finds that although surface transformation in the eastern subpolar gyre dominates the production of deep waters, mixing processes downstream of the Greenland Scotland Ridge are also responsible for the production of waters carried within the AMOC's lower limb both in the observations and reanalyses. Further analysis of the reanalyses shows that SFWMT partly explains MOC interannual variability, the remaining portion can be attributed to basin storage and mixing. Compared to the observations, the reanalyses exhibit stronger MOC variance but comparable SFWMT variance on interannual timescales. 

The RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array-Western Boundary Time Series) programme has produced a continuous time series of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26N that started in April 2004. This release of the time series covers the period from April 2004 to February 2023. The 26N AMOC time series is derived from measurements of temperature, salinity, pressure and water velocity from an array of moored instruments that extend from the east coast of the Bahamas to the continental shelf off Africa east of the Canary Islands. The AMOC calculation also uses estimates of the transport in the Florida Strait derived from sub-sea cable measurements calibrated by regular hydrographic cruises. The component of the AMOC associated with the wind driven Ekman layer is derived from ERA5 reanalysis. This release of the data includes a document with a brief description of the calculation of the AMOC time series and references to more detailed description in published papers. The 26N AMOC time series and the data from the moored array are curated by the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC). The RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS programme is a joint effort between NERC in the UK (Principal Investigator Ben Moat since 2021, Eleanor Frajka-Williams since 2020 to 2021, David Smeed 2012 to 2020, and Stuart Cunningham from 2004 to 2012), NOAA (PIs Ryan Smith and Denis Volkov) and NSF (PIs Prof. Bill Johns and Prof. Shane Elipot, Uni. Miami) in the USA. 

Abstract We characterise, and explore the drivers of, differences in the internal variability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) across five NEMO-based CMIP6 class climate models. While the variability of AMOC variability is dominated by its lower dense limb in all models, there is large diversity in the timescale, multidecadal variability, and latitudinal coherence of AMOC across models. In particular, the UK models have much weaker AMOC multidecadal variability and latitudinal coherence. The model diversity is associated with differences in salinity-governed surface density variations which drive high-density water mass transformation (WMT) in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas (GIN) and the Arctic. Specifically, GIN Seas WMT shows large multidecadal variability which has a major impact on AMOC variability in non-UK models. In contrast, the smaller variability in GIN Seas WMT in the UK models has limited impact on the lower latitude AMOC via the Denmark strait overflow mass transport. This leads to a latitudinally less coherent and weaker multidecadal variability of the AMOC lower limb. Such differences between UK and non-UK models are related to differences in model mean states and densification processes in the Arctic and GIN Seas. Consequently, we recommend further in-depth studies to better understand and constrain processes driving salinity changes in the Arctic and GIN Seas for more reliable representation of the AMOC in climate models. 

Wintertime convection in the North Atlantic Ocean is a key component of the global climate as it produces dense waters at high latitudes that flow equatorward as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Recent work has highlighted the dominant role of the Irminger and Iceland basins in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water. Dense water formation in these basins is mainly explained by buoyancy forcing that transforms surface waters to the deep waters of the AMOC lower limb. Air-sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field are both key determinants of the buoyancy-driven transformation. We analyze these contributions to the transformation in order to better understand the connection between atmospheric forcing and the densification of surface water. More precisely, we study the impact of air-sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field on the transformation of subpolar mode water (SPMW) in the Iceland Basin, a water mass that “pre-conditions” dense water formation downstream. Analyses using 40 years of observations (1980–2019) reveal that the variance in SPMW transformation is mainly influenced by the variance in density at the ocean surface. This surface density is set by a combination of advection, wind-driven upwelling and surface fluxes. Our study shows that the latter explains ∼ 30 % of the variance in outcrop area as expressed by the surface area between the outcropped SPMW isopycnals. The key role of the surface density in SPMW transformation partly explains the unusually large SPMW transformation in winter 2014–2015 over the Iceland Basin. 

Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key mechanism in the climate system, delivers warm and salty waters from the subtropical gyre to the subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas, where they are transformed into denser waters flowing southward in the lower AMOC limb. The prevailing hypothesis is that dense waters formed in the Labrador and Nordic Seas are the sources for the AMOC lower limb. However, recent observations reveal that convection in the Labrador Sea contributes minimally to the total overturning of the subpolar gyre. In this study, we show that the AMOC is instead primarily composed of waters formed in the Nordic Seas and Irminger and Iceland basins. A first direct estimate of heat and freshwater fluxes over these basins demonstrates that buoyancy forcing during the winter months can almost wholly account for the dense waters of the subpolar North Atlantic that are exported as part of the AMOC.