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1. Mechanisms of Low-Frequency Variability in North Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport and AMOC

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0614.1  

   Oldenburg, Dylan ; Wills, Robert C. ; Armour, Kyle C. ; Thompson, LuAnne ; Jackson, Laura C. ( March 2021 , Journal of Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Ocean heat transport (OHT) plays a key role in climate and its variability. Here, we identify modes of low-frequency North Atlantic OHT variability by applying a low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to output from three global climate models. The first low-frequency component (LFC), computed using this method, is an index of OHT variability that maximizes the ratio of low-frequency variance (occurring at decadal and longer timescales) to total variance. Lead-lag regressions of atmospheric and ocean variables onto the LFC timeseries illuminate the dominant mechanisms controlling low-frequency OHT variability. Anomalous northwesterly winds from eastern North America over the North Atlantic act to increase upper ocean density in the Labrador Sea region, enhancing deep convection, which later increases OHT via changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The strengthened AMOC carries warm, salty water into the subpolar gyre, reducing deep convection and weakening AMOC and OHT. This mechanism, where changes in AMOC and OHT are driven primarily by changes in Labrador Sea deep convection, holds not only in models where the climatological (i.e., time-mean) deep convection is concentrated in the Labrador Sea, but also in models where the climatological deep convection is concentrated in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas or the Irminger and Iceland Basins. These results suggest that despite recent observational evidence suggesting that the Labrador Sea plays a minor role in driving the climatological AMOC, the Labrador Sea may still play an important role in driving low-frequency variability in AMOC and OHT. 

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2. Historical Reconstruction of Subpolar North Atlantic Overturning and Its Relationship to Density

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017732  

   Roussenov, Vassil M. ; Williams, Richard G. ; Lozier, M. Susan ; Holliday, N. Penny ; Smith, Doug M. ( May 2022 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans)

   The connections between the overturning of the subpolar North Atlantic and regional density changes are assessed on interannual and decadal timescales using historical, data‐based reconstructions of the overturning over the last 60 years and forward model integrations with buoyancy and wind forcing. The data‐based reconstructions reveal a dominant eastern basin contribution to the subpolar overturning in density space and changes in the overturning reaching ±2.5 Sv, which are both in accord with the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP). The zonally integrated geostrophic velocity across the basin is connected to boundary contrasts in Montgomery potential in density space. The overturning for the eastern side of the basin is strongly correlated with density changes in the Irminger and Labrador Seas, while the overturning for the western side is correlated with boundary density changes in the Labrador Sea. These boundary density signals are a consequence of local atmospheric forcing and transport of upstream density changes. In forward model experiments, a localized density increase over the Irminger Sea increases the overturning over both sides of the basin due to dense waters spreading to the Labrador Sea. Conversely, a localized density increase over the Labrador Sea only increases the overturning for the western basin and instead eventually decreases the overturning for the eastern basin. Labrador Sea density provides a useful overturning metric by its direct control of the overturning over the western side and lower latitudes of the subpolar basin.

    

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3. Role of Air-sea Fluxes and Ocean Surface Density in the Production of Deep Waters in the Eastern Subpolar Gyre of the North Atlantic

   https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1353-2021  

   Petit, Tillys ; Lozier, Susan M. ; Josey, Simon A. ; Cunningham, Stuart A. ( October 2021 , Ocean science)

   Wintertime convection in the North Atlantic Ocean is a key component of the global climate as it produces dense waters at high latitudes that flow equatorward as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Recent work has highlighted the dominant role of the Irminger and Iceland basins in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water. Dense water formation in these basins is mainly explained by buoyancy forcing that transforms surface waters to the deep waters of the AMOC lower limb. Air-sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field are both key determinants of the buoyancy-driven transformation. We analyze these contributions to the transformation in order to better understand the connection between atmospheric forcing and the densification of surface water. More precisely, we study the impact of air-sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field on the transformation of subpolar mode water (SPMW) in the Iceland Basin, a water mass that “pre-conditions” dense water formation downstream. Analyses using 40 years of observations (1980–2019) reveal that the variance in SPMW transformation is mainly influenced by the variance in density at the ocean surface. This surface density is set by a combination of advection, wind-driven upwelling and surface fluxes. Our study shows that the latter explains ∼ 30 % of the variance in outcrop area as expressed by the surface area between the outcropped SPMW isopycnals. The key role of the surface density in SPMW transformation partly explains the unusually large SPMW transformation in winter 2014–2015 over the Iceland Basin. 

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4. Slowdown and Recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and a Persistent North Atlantic Warming Hole Induced by Arctic Sea Ice Decline

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097967  

   Ferster, Brady S. ; Simon, Amélie ; Fedorov, Alexey ; Mignot, Juliette ; Guilyardi, Eric ( August 2022 , Geophysical Research Letters)

   We investigate the impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and North Atlantic climate in a coupled general circulation model (IPSL‐CM5A2) perturbation experiment, wherein Arctic sea ice is reduced until reaching an equilibrium of an ice‐free summer. After several decades we observe AMOC weakening caused by reduced dense water formation in the Iceland basin due to the warming of surface waters, and later compensated by intensification of dense water formation in the Western Subpolar North Atlantic. Consequently, AMOC slightly weakens in deep, dense waters but recovers through shallower, less dense waters overturning. In parallel, wind‐driven intensification and southeastward expansion of the subpolar gyre cause a depth‐extended cold anomaly ∼2°C around 50°N that resembles the North Atlantic “warming hole.” We conclude that compensating dense water formations drive AMOC changes following sea ice retreat and that a warming hole can develop independently of the AMOC modulation.

    

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5. Wind‐Forced Upwelling Along the West Greenland Shelfbreak: Implications for Labrador Sea Water Formation

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018952  

   Pacini, Astrid ; Pickart, Robert S. ( March 2023 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans)

   Arctic‐origin and Greenland meltwaters circulate cyclonically in the boundary current system encircling the Labrador Sea. The ability of this freshwater to penetrate the interior basin has important consequences for dense water formation and the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. However, the precise mechanisms by which the freshwater is transported offshore, and the magnitude of this flux, remain uncertain. Here, we investigate wind‐driven upwelling northwest of Cape Farewell using 4 years of high‐resolution data from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program west Greenland mooring array, deployed from September 2014–2018, along with Argo, shipboard, and atmospheric reanalysis data. A total of 49 upwelling events were identified corresponding to enhanced northwesterly winds, followed by reduced along‐stream flow of the boundary current and anomalously dense water present on the outer shelf. The events occur during the development stage of forward Greenland tip jets. During the storms, a cross‐stream Ekman cell develops that transports freshwater offshore in the surface layer and warm, saline, Atlantic‐origin waters onshore at depth. The net fluxes of heat and freshwater for a representative storm are computed. Using a one‐dimensional mixing model, it is shown that the freshwater input resulting from the locus of winter storms could significantly limit the wintertime development of the mixed layer and hence the production of Labrador Sea Water in the southeastern part of the basin.

    

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