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Astrophysical black holes appear well-represented by the Kerr metric, whose maximal analytic extension contains a ringlike curvature singularity. We study a phenomenological regularized modification of Kerr, the modified Kerr-Hayward metric, which removes curvature blowup at the level of the stationary metric while preserving in detail many features of polarized black hole images now testable by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). To establish this, we produce new general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) simulations of a magnetized plasma in a Kerr-Hayward spacetime, then we extend the EHT analysis framework to perform polarized radiative transfer in this spacetime. We detail our methodology for implementing this modified spacetime into an open-source pipeline. From fluid quantities such as the magnetic flux parameter and jet efficiency, to image quantities such as the polarization pattern and the photon ring structure, our results for the Kerr-Hayward metric appear functionally indistinguishable from the Kerr metric. Our study finds that under the assumptions of a fixed-background GRMHD and polarized radiative transfer pipeline, this regularized phenomenological modification to the Kerr metric can yield observables that are effectively indistinguishable in EHT measurements. 

Abstract Light orbiting an accreting black hole may impact the disk or jet multiple times before escaping to the observer, at a variety of angles with respect to the local magnetic field. In this Letter, we characterize the imprints of these long path lengths and disparate magnetic field impacts in synchrotron spectra of hot accretion disks, as the strongly lensed “photon ring” exhibits a higher synchrotron turnover frequency in each lensed subimage. We apply tools of varying complexity: first, we develop a minimal, unlensed one-zone model that isolates the first two subimages of the accretion flow. By varying the magnetic field geometry encountered by each subimage, we show that distinctive spectral signatures emerge in both total intensity and fractional linear polarization. Second, we examine a semianalytic radiatively inefficient accretion flow model, in which we find that there is generally a frequency at which the first indirect image outshines the direct image even in total flux density. Lastly, we demonstrate that even general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulation snapshots show this spectral character. We find a typical correction to the unresolved spectrum of order 10% near the turnover frequency that grows with increasing viewing inclination, growing to order unity at higher frequencies. We predict sensitive spectral studies of the cores of Messier 87* and Sagittarius A* at frequencies exceeding 300 GHz to constrain the existence of the photon ring even without imaging, with prospects for photon ring detection even in other sources with unresolved shadows. 

Abstract Recent Event Horizon Telescope results have demonstrated unique and transformative science in gravitational physics and black hole astrophysics enabled by event-horizon-scale imaging of supermassive black holes (SMBHs). Nevertheless, the angular resolution of current ground-based very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) arrays limits such studies to only two sources, precluding systematic investigations of horizon-scale emission across a nearby SMBH population. The proposed black hole Explorer (BHEX), a millimeter/submillimeter space VLBI mission, would overcome this limitation by delivering substantially higher angular resolution. Here, we present a series of simulated observations to assess a population of nearby horizon-scale targets accessible with BHEX. Based on a recently developed SMBH number density model, we find that BHEX could infer black hole masses for ∼70–90 sources from size measurements, constrain magnetic field structures through linear polarization imaging for ∼20–30 sources, and resolve black hole shadows for ∼20–25 sources. Targeted observations of ∼50 nearby SMBHs are expected to yield measurements for ∼30 source sizes and ∼10 shadows and linear-polarization patterns. These projections are supported by detailed imaging simulations of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models for eleven nearby SMBHs. Together, our results highlight BHEX as a powerful facility for revealing the demographics of SMBH properties across diverse accretion states, radio loudness, host galaxy environments, and viewing geometries. 

Abstract The accretion and feedback processes governing supermassive black hole (SMBH) growth span an enormous range of spatial scales, from the Event Horizon to the circumgalactic medium. Recent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations demonstrate that strong magnetic fields can substantially suppress gas accretion onto black holes. These simulations show that magnetic fields create magnetically arrested disk states, reducing inflow rates by up to 2 orders of magnitude relative to classical predictions. We incorporate this magnetic suppression prescription from recent GRMHD studies into DarkSage, a semianalytic model that tracks SMBH and galaxy coevolution over cosmic time. Implementing the suppression across different accretion rate regimes, we explore its impact on the distribution of black hole masses, stellar masses in galaxies, and active galactic nucleus (AGN) luminosities. We find that restricting suppression to sub-Eddington accretors (f_Edd < 3 × 10⁻³) and rescaling AGN feedback efficiencies gives simultaneous agreement with the observed local distributions of both galaxy and black hole masses. At early cosmic times (z >  6), super-Eddington growth episodes dominate in our model, reproducing the high number densities of luminous AGN recently discovered by the James Webb Space Telescope. Our results highlight the critical sensitivity of galaxy assembly to the coupling between small-scale accretion physics and large-scale feedback regulation. Magnetic suppression of hot gas accretion can reconcile low-redshift constraints while preserving the rapid black hole growth required at early cosmic epochs, thereby providing a physically motivated bridge between horizon-scale GRMHD simulations and cosmological galaxy-formation models. 

Abstract Galaxies grow alongside central supermassive black holes (SMBHs) through fueling and feedback. However, the origins of this coevolution remain unclear and vary across modeling frameworks. Using semianalytic models (SAMs), we trace SMBH mass assembly acrossM_BH ∼ 10⁶⁻¹⁰M_⊙. We find significant discrepancies between observations and physics-based models of the local black hole mass function (BHMF), likely from differences in the stellar mass function and scaling relations used to infer the BHMF. Most physics-based models agree atz ∼ 1–4 and broadly match the JWST broad-line active galactic nucleus (AGN) BHMFs atz = 4–5. These models also reproduce the observed bolometric AGN luminosity evolution, except the SAMDark Sage, which predicts an excess. Interestingly, this pronounced “knee” in the bolometric AGN luminosity function predicted byDark SagearoundL_bol ∼ 10⁴⁶erg s⁻¹is consistent with the inferred abundance and luminosity of “little red dots” atz = 5–6, under the assumption that they are powered entirely by AGN activity. In contrast to other models,Dark Sagedeploys multiple growth channels for SMBHs that include mergers, hot-mode accretion, merger-driven cold-accretion, and secular-instability-driven accretion. We analyze the black hole mass buildup and accretion histories inDark Sage, which, unlike other models, also allows for super-Eddington accretion, and we find that, on average, SMBHs primarily grow through secular disk instabilities and merger-driven cold gas accretion modes. We also find that black hole mergers contribute the majority of the growth of ∼60% of the total mass budget only for the most massive SMBHs byz= 0. 

Abstract The coevolution of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and their host galaxies remains one of the central open questions in cosmology, rooted in the coupling between accretion, feedback, and the multiscale physics that links the event horizon to the circumgalactic medium. Here we bridge these scales by embedding a first-principles, GRMHD-informed prescription for black hole accretion and feedback—derived from multizone simulations that self-consistently connect inflows and outflows from the horizon to the Bondi radius—within cosmological magnetohydrodynamic zoom-in simulations of ∼10¹⁴M_⊙halos. These GRMHD results predict a “suppressed Bondi” regime in which magnetic stresses and relativistic winds strongly reduce effective accretion rates in a spin-dependent manner. We find that black holes cannot grow efficiently by accretion until they exceed ∼10⁷M_⊙, regardless of the feedback strength. Beyond this threshold, systems bifurcate: low-spin (η ∼ 0.02) black holes continue to accrete without quenching star formation, while high-spin (η ≳ 0.3) black holes quench effectively but become starved of further growth. Early, massive seeding partially alleviates this tension through merger-driven assembly, yet an additional cold or super-Eddington accretion mode appears essential to reproduce the observed SMBH population and the empirical black hole–galaxy scaling relations. Our results demonstrate that GRMHD-informed feedback models can account for the maintenance-mode behavior of low-luminosity active galactic nuclei like M87*, but cannot by themselves explain the full buildup of SMBH mass across cosmic time. A unified, multiregime framework is required to capture the evolving interplay between spin-dependent feedback, cold inflows, and mergers in driving coevolution. 

Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced resolved images of the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) Sgr A* and M87*, which present the largest shadows on the sky. In the next decade, technological improvements and extensions to the array will enable access to a greater number of sources, unlocking studies of a larger population of SMBHs through direct imaging. In this paper, we identify 12 of the most promising sources beyond Sgr A* and M87* based on their angular size and millimeter flux density. For each of these sources, we make theoretical predictions for their observable properties by ray tracing general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models appropriately scaled to each target’s mass, distance, and flux density. We predict that these sources would have somewhat higher Eddington ratios than M87*, which may result in larger optical and Faraday depths than previous EHT targets. Despite this, we find that visibility amplitude size constraints can plausibly recover masses within a factor of 2, although the unknown jet contribution remains a significant uncertainty. We find that the linearly polarized structure evolves substantially with the Eddington ratio, with greater evolution at larger inclinations, complicating potential spin inferences for inclined sources. We discuss the importance of 345 GHz observations, milli-Jansky baseline sensitivity, and independent inclination constraints for future observations with upgrades to the EHT through ground updates with the next-generation EHT program and extensions to space through the black hole Explorer. 

Abstract Recent multiwavelength observations of M87* revealed a high-energyγ-ray flare without a millimeter counterpart. We present a theoretical study of potential millimeter flares in M87*, using general relativistic magnetohydrodynamical simulations with varying black hole (BH) spins and magnetic field configurations. The emergence of a millimeter flare is strongly influenced by both spin and magnetic structure, with limited sensitivity to the electron distribution. We model the intensity light curve with a damped random walk and compare the characteristic timescale (τ) with recent Submillimeter Array observations, finding that simulatedτexceeds observed values by over an order of magnitude. For BH spina = +0.5, we identify a distinct flare followed by an order-of-magnitude flux drop. All Stokes parameters vary near the flare, including a sign reversal in the electric vector position angle. Mostβ_mmodes remain stable, but theEB-correlation phase is sensitive to both the flare peak and decay. We examine polarimetric signatures in photon subrings, focusing on modesn_s = (0, 1). Then_s = 0 signal closely matches the full image, whilen_s = 1 exhibits distinct behavior, highlighting the potential of space very long baseline interferometry to isolate subring features. Magnetic reconnection near the disk plane triggers a flux eruption that injects magnetized plasma into the jet funnel, enhancing outflow speeds and temporarily disrupting jet collimation before gradual recollimation. These results suggest transient variability near flares encodes key information about BH spin and magnetic structure, offering new probes of active galactic nuclei. 

Abstract A spinning black hole (BH) accreting from a disk of strongly magnetized plasma via a magnetically arrested disk is known to produce an efficient electromagnetic jet powered by the BH’s spin energy. We present general relativistic radiative magnetohydrodynamic simulations of magnetically arrested systems covering a range of sub- to super-Eddington accretion rates. Using the numerical results from these simulations, we develop formulae to describe the magnetization, jet efficiency, and spin evolution of an accreting BH as a function of its spin and accretion rate. A BH with near-Eddington accretion experiences a mild degree of spin-down because of angular momentum loss through the jet, leading to an equilibrium spin of 0.8 rather than 1.0 at the Eddington limit. As the accretion rate increases above Eddington, the spin-down effect becomes progressively stronger, ultimately converging on previous predictions based on nonradiative simulations. In particular, spin evolution drives highly super-Eddington systems toward a BH spin near zero. The formulae developed in this letter may be applied to galaxy- and cosmological-scale simulations that include BHs. If magnetically arrested disk accretion is common among supermassive BHs, the present results have broad implications for active galactic nucleus feedback and cosmological spin evolution. 

Abstract The recent Chandra-JWST discovery of a quasar in thez≈ 10.1 galaxy UHZ1 reveals that accreting supermassive black holes were already in place 470 million years after the Big Bang. The Chandra X-ray source detected in UHZ1 is a Compton-thick quasar with a bolometric luminosity ofL_bol∼ 5 × 10⁴⁵erg s⁻¹, which corresponds to an estimated black hole (BH) mass of ∼4 × 10⁷M_⊙, assuming accretion at the Eddington rate. JWST NIRCAM and NIRSpec data yield a stellar mass estimate for UHZ1 comparable to its BH mass. These characteristics are in excellent agreement with prior theoretical predictions for a unique class of transient, high-redshift objects, overmassive black hole galaxies (OBGs) by Natarajan et al., that harbor a heavy initial black hole seed that likely formed from the direct collapse of the gas. Given the excellent agreement between the observed multiwavelength properties of UHZ1 and theoretical model template predictions, we suggest that UHZ1 is the first detected OBG candidate. Our assertion rests on multiple lines of concordant evidence between model predictions and the following observed properties of UHZ1: its X-ray detection and the estimated ratio of the X-ray flux to the IR flux, which is consistent with theoretical expectations for a heavy initial BH seed; its high measured redshift ofz≈ 10.1, as predicted for the transient OBG stage (9 <z< 12); the amplitude and shape of the detected JWST spectral energy distribution (SED) between 1 and 5μm, which is in very good agreement with simulated template SEDs for OBGs; and the extended JWST morphology of UHZ1, which is suggestive of a recent merge and is also expected for the formation of transient OBGs. As the first OBG candidate, UHZ1 provides compelling evidence for the formation of heavy initial seeds from direct collapse in the early Universe.