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Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced resolved images of the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) Sgr A* and M87*, which present the largest shadows on the sky. In the next decade, technological improvements and extensions to the array will enable access to a greater number of sources, unlocking studies of a larger population of SMBHs through direct imaging. In this paper, we identify 12 of the most promising sources beyond Sgr A* and M87* based on their angular size and millimeter flux density. For each of these sources, we make theoretical predictions for their observable properties by ray tracing general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models appropriately scaled to each target’s mass, distance, and flux density. We predict that these sources would have somewhat higher Eddington ratios than M87*, which may result in larger optical and Faraday depths than previous EHT targets. Despite this, we find that visibility amplitude size constraints can plausibly recover masses within a factor of 2, although the unknown jet contribution remains a significant uncertainty. We find that the linearly polarized structure evolves substantially with the Eddington ratio, with greater evolution at larger inclinations, complicating potential spin inferences for inclined sources. We discuss the importance of 345 GHz observations, milli-Jansky baseline sensitivity, and independent inclination constraints for future observations with upgrades to the EHT through ground updates with the next-generation EHT program and extensions to space through the black hole Explorer. 

Abstract A spinning black hole (BH) accreting from a disk of strongly magnetized plasma via a magnetically arrested disk is known to produce an efficient electromagnetic jet powered by the BH’s spin energy. We present general relativistic radiative magnetohydrodynamic simulations of magnetically arrested systems covering a range of sub- to super-Eddington accretion rates. Using the numerical results from these simulations, we develop formulae to describe the magnetization, jet efficiency, and spin evolution of an accreting BH as a function of its spin and accretion rate. A BH with near-Eddington accretion experiences a mild degree of spin-down because of angular momentum loss through the jet, leading to an equilibrium spin of 0.8 rather than 1.0 at the Eddington limit. As the accretion rate increases above Eddington, the spin-down effect becomes progressively stronger, ultimately converging on previous predictions based on nonradiative simulations. In particular, spin evolution drives highly super-Eddington systems toward a BH spin near zero. The formulae developed in this letter may be applied to galaxy- and cosmological-scale simulations that include BHs. If magnetically arrested disk accretion is common among supermassive BHs, the present results have broad implications for active galactic nucleus feedback and cosmological spin evolution. 

Abstract Fueling and feedback couple supermassive black holes (SMBHs) to their host galaxies across many orders of magnitude in spatial and temporal scales, making this problem notoriously challenging to simulate. We use a multi-zone computational method based on the general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) code KHARMA that allows us to span 7 orders of magnitude in spatial scale, to simulate accretion onto a non-spinning SMBH from an external medium with a Bondi radius ofR_B≈ 2 × 10⁵GM_•/c², whereM_•is the SMBH mass. For the classic idealized Bondi problem, spherical gas accretion without magnetic fields, our simulation results agree very well with the general relativistic analytic solution. Meanwhile, when the accreting gas is magnetized, the SMBH magnetosphere becomes saturated with a strong magnetic field. The density profile varies as ∼r⁻¹rather thanr^−3/2and the accretion rate $\dot{M}$is consequently suppressed by over 2 orders of magnitude below the Bondi rate ${\dot{M}}_{\mathrm{B}}$. We find continuous energy feedback from the accretion flow to the external medium at a level of $\sim {10}^{-2}\dot{M}{c}^2\sim 5\times {10}^{-5}{\dot{M}}_{\mathrm{B}}{c}^2$. Energy transport across these widely disparate scales occurs via turbulent convection triggered by magnetic field reconnection near the SMBH. Thus, strong magnetic fields that accumulate on horizon scales transform the flow dynamics far from the SMBH and naturally explain observed extremely low accretion rates compared to the Bondi rate, as well as at least part of the energy feedback. 

Abstract The recent Chandra-JWST discovery of a quasar in thez≈ 10.1 galaxy UHZ1 reveals that accreting supermassive black holes were already in place 470 million years after the Big Bang. The Chandra X-ray source detected in UHZ1 is a Compton-thick quasar with a bolometric luminosity ofL_bol∼ 5 × 10⁴⁵erg s⁻¹, which corresponds to an estimated black hole (BH) mass of ∼4 × 10⁷M_⊙, assuming accretion at the Eddington rate. JWST NIRCAM and NIRSpec data yield a stellar mass estimate for UHZ1 comparable to its BH mass. These characteristics are in excellent agreement with prior theoretical predictions for a unique class of transient, high-redshift objects, overmassive black hole galaxies (OBGs) by Natarajan et al., that harbor a heavy initial black hole seed that likely formed from the direct collapse of the gas. Given the excellent agreement between the observed multiwavelength properties of UHZ1 and theoretical model template predictions, we suggest that UHZ1 is the first detected OBG candidate. Our assertion rests on multiple lines of concordant evidence between model predictions and the following observed properties of UHZ1: its X-ray detection and the estimated ratio of the X-ray flux to the IR flux, which is consistent with theoretical expectations for a heavy initial BH seed; its high measured redshift ofz≈ 10.1, as predicted for the transient OBG stage (9 <z< 12); the amplitude and shape of the detected JWST spectral energy distribution (SED) between 1 and 5μm, which is in very good agreement with simulated template SEDs for OBGs; and the extended JWST morphology of UHZ1, which is suggestive of a recent merge and is also expected for the formation of transient OBGs. As the first OBG candidate, UHZ1 provides compelling evidence for the formation of heavy initial seeds from direct collapse in the early Universe. 

ABSTRACT In this paper, we introduce a novel data augmentation methodology based on Conditional Progressive Generative Adversarial Networks (CPGAN) to generate diverse black hole (BH) images, accounting for variations in spin and electron temperature prescriptions. These generated images are valuable resources for training deep learning algorithms to accurately estimate black hole parameters from observational data. Our model can generate BH images for any spin value within the range of [−1, 1], given an electron temperature distribution. To validate the effectiveness of our approach, we employ a convolutional neural network to predict the BH spin using both the GRMHD images and the images generated by our proposed model. Our results demonstrate a significant performance improvement when training is conducted with the augmented data set while testing is performed using GRMHD simulated data, as indicated by the high R2 score. Consequently, we propose that GANs can be employed as cost-effective models for black hole image generation and reliably augment training data sets for other parametrization algorithms. 

While supermassive black-hole masses have been cataloged across cosmic time, only a few dozen of them have robust spin measurements. By extending and improving the existing Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array, the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) will enable multifrequency, polarimetric movies on event-horizon scales, which will place new constraints on the space-time and accretion flow. By combining this information, it is anticipated that the ngEHT may be able to measure tens of supermassive black-hole masses and spins. In this white paper, we discuss existing spin measurements and many proposed techniques with which the ngEHT could potentially measure spins of target supermassive black holes. Spins measured by the ngEHT would represent a completely new sample of sources that, unlike pre-existing samples, would not be biased towards objects with high accretion rates. Such a sample would provide new insights into the accretion, feedback, and cosmic assembly of supermassive black holes. 

ABSTRACT The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) collaboration has produced the first resolved images of the supermassive black holes at the centre of our galaxy and at the centre of the elliptical galaxy M87. As both technology and analysis pipelines improve, it will soon become possible to produce spectral index maps of black hole accretion flows on event horizon scales. In this work, we predict spectral index maps of both M87* and Sgr A* by applying the general relativistic radiative transfer (GRRT) code ipole to a suite of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. We analytically show that the spectral index increases with increasing magnetic field strength, electron temperature, and optical depth. Consequently, spectral index maps grow more negative with increasing radius in almost all models, since all of these quantities tend to be maximized near the event horizon. Additionally, photon ring geodesics exhibit more positive spectral indices, since they sample the innermost regions of the accretion flow with the most extreme plasma conditions. Spectral index maps are sensitive to highly uncertain plasma heating prescriptions (the electron temperature and distribution function). However, if our understanding of these aspects of plasma physics can be tightened, even the spatially unresolved spectral index around 230 GHz can be used to discriminate between models. In particular, Standard and Normal Evolution (SANE) flows tend to exhibit more negative spectral indices than Magnetically Arrested Disc (MAD) flows due to differences in the characteristic magnetic field strength and temperature of emitting plasma. 

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration has successfully produced images of two supermassive black holes, enabling novel tests of black holes and their accretion flows on horizon scales. The EHT has so far published total intensity and linear polarization images, while upcoming images may include circular polarization, rotation measure, and spectral index, each of which reveals different aspects of the plasma and space-time. The next-generation EHT (ngEHT) will greatly enhance these studies through wider recorded bandwidths and additional stations, leading to greater signal-to-noise, orders of magnitude improvement in dynamic range, multi-frequency observations, and horizon-scale movies. In this paper, we review how each of these different observables informs us about the underlying properties of the plasma and the spacetime, and we discuss why polarimetric studies are well-suited to measurements with sparse, long-baseline coverage. 

ABSTRACT We introduce a new library of 535 194 model images of the supermassive black holes and Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) targets Sgr A* and M87*, computed by performing general relativistic radiative transfer calculations on general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics simulations. Then to infer underlying black hole and accretion flow parameters (spin, inclination, ion-to-electron temperature ratio, and magnetic field polarity), we train a random forest machine learning model on various hand-picked polarimetric observables computed from each image. Our random forest is capable of making meaningful predictions of spin, inclination, and the ion-to-electron temperature ratio, but has more difficulty inferring magnetic field polarity. To disentangle how physical parameters are encoded in different observables, we apply two different metrics to rank the importance of each observable at inferring each physical parameter. Details of the spatially resolved linear polarization morphology stand out as important discriminators between models. Bearing in mind the theoretical limitations and incompleteness of our image library, for the real M87* data, our machinery favours high-spin retrograde models with large ion-to-electron temperature ratios. Due to the time-variable nature of these targets, repeated polarimetric imaging will further improve model inference as the EHT and next-generation (EHT) continue to develop and monitor their targets. 

Abstract We explore the characteristics of actively accreting massive black holes (MBHs) within dwarf galaxies in the Romulus25cosmological hydrodynamic simulation. We examine the MBH occupation fraction, X-ray active fractions, and active galactic nucleus (AGN) scaling relations within dwarf galaxies of stellar mass 10⁸M_⊙<M_star< 10¹⁰M_⊙out to redshiftz= 2. In the local universe, the MBH occupation fraction is consistent with observed constraints, dropping below unity atM_star< 3 × 10¹⁰M_⊙,M₂₀₀< 3 × 10¹¹M_⊙. Local dwarf AGN in Romulus25follow observed scaling relations between AGN X-ray luminosity, stellar mass, and star formation rate, though they exhibit slightly higher active fractions and number densities than comparable X-ray observations. Sincez= 2, the MBH occupation fraction has decreased, the population of dwarf AGN has become overall less luminous, and as a result the overall number density of dwarf AGN has diminished. We predict the existence of a large population of MBHs in the local universe with low X-ray luminosities and high contamination from X-ray binaries and the hot interstellar medium that are undetectable by current X-ray surveys. These hidden MBHs make up 76% of all MBHs in local dwarf galaxies and include many MBHs that are undermassive relative to their host galaxy’s stellar mass. Their detection relies on not only greater instrument sensitivity but also better modeling of X-ray contaminants or multiwavelength surveys. Our results indicate that dwarf AGN were substantially more active in the past, despite having low luminosity today, and that future deep X-ray surveys may uncover many hidden MBHs in dwarf galaxies out to at leastz= 2.