Search for: All records

Quantifying nitrogen uptake rates across different forest types is critical for a range of ecological questions, including the parameterization of global climate change models. However, few measurements of forest nitrogen uptake rates are available due to the intensive labor required to collect in situ data. Here, we seek to optimize data collection efforts by identifying measurements that must be made in situ and those that can be omitted or approximated from databases. We estimated nitrogen uptake rates in 18 mature monodominant forest stands comprising 13 species of diverse taxonomy at the Morton Arboretum in Lisle, IL, USA. We measured all nitrogen concentrations, foliage allocation, and fine root biomass in situ. We estimated wood biomass increments by in situ stem diameter and stem core measurements combined with allometric equations. We estimated fine root turnover rates from database values. We analyzed similar published data from monodominant forest FACE sites. At least in monodominant forests, accurate estimates of forest nitrogen uptake rates appear to require in situ measurements of fine root productivity and are appreciably better paired with in situ measurements of foliage productivity. Generally, wood productivity and tissue nitrogen concentrations may be taken from trait databases at higher taxonomic levels. Careful sorting of foliage or fine roots to species is time consuming but has little effect on estimates of nitrogen uptake rate. By directing research efforts to critical in situ measurements only, future studies can maximize research effort to identify the drivers of varied nitrogen uptake patterns across gradients. 

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships. 

Abstract Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized.Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis.Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales.We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.