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Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations. 

Biotic interactions structure ecological communities but abiotic factors affect the strength of these relationships. These interactions are difficult to study in soils due to their vast biodiversity and the many environmental factors that affect soil species. The McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), Antarctica, are relatively simple soil ecosystems compared to temperate soils, making them an excellent study system for the trophic relationships of soil. Soil microbes and relatively few species of nematodes, rotifers, tardigrades, springtails, and mites are patchily distributed across the cold, dry landscape, which lacks vascular plants and terrestrial vertebrates. However, glacier and permafrost melt are expected to cause shifts in soil moisture and solutes across this ecosystem. To test how increased moisture and salinity affect soil invertebrates and their biotic interactions, we established a laboratory microcosm experiment (4 community × 2 moisture × 2 salinity treatments). Community treatments were: (1) Bacteria only (control), (2) Scottnema (S. lindsayae + bacteria), (3) Eudorylaimus (E. antarcticus + bacteria), and (4) Mixed (S. lindsayae + E. antarcticus + bacteria). Salinity and moisture treatments were control and high. High moisture reduced S. lindsayae adults, while high salinity reduced the total S. lindsayae population. We found that S. lindsayae exerted top-down control over soil bacteria populations, but this effect was dependent on salinity treatment. In the high salinity treatment, bacteria were released from top-down pressure as S. lindsayae declined. Ours was the first study to empirically demonstrate, although in lab microcosm conditions, top-down control in the MDV soil food web. 

Precipitation changes among years and locations along gradients of mean annual precipitation (MAP). The way those changes interact and affect populations of soil organisms from arid to moist environments remains unknown. Temporal and spatial changes in precipitation could lead to shifts in functional composition of soil communities that are involved in key aspects of ecosystem functioning such as ecosystem primary production and carbon cycling. We experimentally reduced and increased growing-season precipitation for 2 y in field plots at arid, semiarid, and mesic grasslands to investigate temporal and spatial precipitation controls on the abundance and community functional composition of soil nematodes, a hyper-abundant and functionally diverse metazoan in terrestrial ecosystems. We found that total nematode abundance decreased with greater growing-season precipitation following increases in the abundance of predaceous nematodes that consumed and limited the abundance of nematodes lower in the trophic structure, including root feeders. The magnitude of these nematode responses to temporal changes in precipitation increased along the spatial gradient of long-term MAP, and significant effects only occurred at the mesic site. Contrary to the temporal pattern, nematode abundance increased with greater long-term MAP along the spatial gradient from arid to mesic grasslands. The projected increase in the frequency of extreme dry years in mesic grasslands will therefore weaken predation pressure belowground and increase populations of root-feeding nematodes, potentially leading to higher levels of plant infestation and plant damage that would exacerbate the negative effect of drought on ecosystem primary production and C cycling. 

Declines in grassland diversity in response to nutrient addition are a general consequence of global change. This decline in species richness may be driven by multiple underlying processes operating at different time‐scales. Nutrient addition can reduce diversity by enhancing the rate of local extinction via competitive exclusion, or by reducing the rate of colonization by constraining the pool of species able to colonize under new conditions. Partitioning net change into extinction and colonization rates will better delineate the long‐term effect of global change in grasslands.

We synthesized changes in richness in response to experimental fertilization with nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium with micronutrients across 30 grasslands. We quantified changes in local richness, colonization, and extinction over 8–10 years of nutrient addition, and compared these rates against control conditions to isolate the effect of nutrient addition from background dynamics.

Total richness at steady state in the control plots was the sum of equal, relatively high rates of local colonization and extinction. On aggregate, 30%–35% of initial species were lost and the same proportion of new species were gained at least once over a decade. Absolute turnover increased with site‐level richness but was proportionately greater at lower‐richness sites relative to starting richness. Loss of total richness with nutrient addition, especially N in combination with P or K, was driven by enhanced rates of extinction with a smaller contribution from reduced colonization. Enhanced extinction and reduced colonization were disproportionately among native species, perennials, and forbs. Reduced colonization plateaued after the first few (<5) years after nutrient addition, while enhanced extinction continued throughout the first decade.

Synthesis. Our results indicate a high rate of colonizations and extinctions underlying the richness of ambient communities and that nutrient enhancement drives overall declines in diversity primarily by exclusion of previously established species. Moreover, enhanced extinction continues over long time‐scales, suggesting continuous, long‐term community responses and a need for long‐term study to fully realize the extinction impact of increased nutrients on grassland composition.