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The study aims to analyze climate variability and farmers’ perception in Southern Ethiopia. Gridded annual temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for the period between 1983 and 2014. Using a multistage sampling technique, 403 farm households were surveyed to substantiate farmers’ perceptions about climate variability and change. The study applied a nonparametric Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall’s trend tests to detect the magnitude and statistical significance of climate variability and binary logit regression model to find factors influencing farm households’ perceptions about climate variability over three agroecological zones (AEZs). The trend analysis reveals that positive trends were observed in the annual maximum temperature, 0.02°C/year ( p < 0.01 ) in the lowland and 0.04°C/year ( p < 0.01 ) in the highland AEZs. The positive trend in annual minimum temperature was consistent in all AEZs and significant ( p < 0.01 ). An upward trend in the annual total rainfall (10 mm/year) ( p < 0.05 ) was recorded in the midland AEZ. Over 60% of farmers have perceived increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in all AEZs. However, farmers’ perception about rainfall in the midland AEZ contradicts with meteorological analysis. Results from themore »binary logit model inform that farmers’ climate change perceptions are significantly influenced by their access to climate and market information, agroecology, education, agricultural input, and village market distance. Based on these results, it is recommended to enhance farm households’ capacity by providing timely weather and climate information along with institutional actions such as agricultural extension services.« less

The association between elevation (agro-climatic zones, ACZs) and the mean annual total rainfall (MATRF) is not straightforward in different parts of the world. This study sought to estimate the amount of MATRF across four elevation zones of Jema watershed, which is situated in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia, by employing an appropriate interpolation method. The elevation of the watershed ranges from 1895 to 3518 m a.s.l. For the sake of this study, 34 sample MATRF data were extracted from satellite and nearby gauge stations that were recorded from 1983 to 2010. These data sources were reconstructed by International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, USA, at a scale of 10 km by 10 km. An elevation data set generated from a digital elevation model with 30-m resolution (DEM 30 m) was considered as a covariable to estimate the MATRF. To identify the optimal interpolation model, mean errors were computed using cross-validation statistics. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) analysis showed that ordinary cokriging (OCK) was the most accurate model with a predictive power of 87.3%. The root-mean-square standardized (RMSSE) analysis showed that the best precision value (0.72) occurred in OCK. Stable and Gaussian trend lines together with local polynomialmore »types of trend removal, and an elliptical neighborhood search function could perform best to maximize the accuracy and the precision of estimating MATRF. Elevation, as a covariable, enhanced the degree of accuracy and precision of estimation. The value of the trend line function (least square) between the MATRF and elevation was very weak (R2 = 0.07), whereas the value of trend line function (least square) between the MATRF and the longitude coordinates (east–west direction) was medium (R2 = 0.34). The estimated MATRF for the entire watershed under study ranged from 1228 to 1640 mm. To conclude, elevation could contribute to the estimation of the MATRF. The value of the MATRF showed a declining pattern from the lower to higher elevation areas of the watershed.« less