Search for: All records

Wild waterbirds, and especially wild waterfowl, are considered to be a reservoir for avian influenza viruses, with transmission likely occurring at the agricultural-wildlife interface. In the past few decades, avian influenza has repeatedly emerged in China along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF), where extensive habitat conversion has occurred. Rapid environmental changes in the EAAF, especially distributional changes in rice paddy agriculture, have the potential to affect both the movements of wild migratory birds and the likelihood of spillover at the agricultural-wildlife interface. To begin to understand the potential implications such changes may have on waterfowl and disease transmission risk, we created dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMM) based on waterfowl telemetry data. We used these dBBMM models to create hypothetical scenarios that would predict likely changes in waterfowl distribution relative to recent changes in rice distribution quantified through remote sensing. Our models examined a range of responses in which increased availability of rice paddies would drive increased use by waterfowl and decreased availability would result in decreased use, predicted from empirical data. Results from our scenarios suggested that in southeast China, relatively small decreases in rice agriculture could lead to dramatic loss of stopover habitat, and in northeast China, increasesmore »in rice paddies should provide new areas that can be used by waterfowl. Finally, we explored the implications of how such scenarios of changing waterfowl distribution may affect the potential for avian influenza transmission. Our results provide advance understanding of changing disease transmission threats by incorporating real-world data that predicts differences in habitat utilization by migratory birds over time.« less

Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations. We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage. Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America (change in annual risk from 32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) in the most extreme emissions scenario. Following low-end and medium scenarios compared to high-end scenarios indicates a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk over cropland.