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Background Prediction of the dynamics of new SARS-CoV-2 infections during the current COVID-19 pandemic is critical for public health planning of efficient health care allocation and monitoring the effects of policy interventions. We describe a new approach that forecasts the number of incident cases in the near future given past occurrences using only a small number of assumptions. Methods Our approach to forecasting future COVID-19 cases involves 1) modeling the observed incidence cases using a Poisson distribution for the daily incidence number, and a gamma distribution for the series interval; 2) estimating the effective reproduction number assuming its value staysmore »constant during a short time interval; and 3) drawing future incidence cases from their posterior distributions, assuming that the current transmission rate will stay the same, or change by a certain degree. Results We apply our method to predicting the number of new COVID-19 cases in a single state in the U.S. and for a subset of counties within the state to demonstrate the utility of this method at varying scales of prediction. Our method produces reasonably accurate results when the effective reproduction number is distributed similarly in the future as in the past. Large deviations from the predicted results can imply that a change in policy or some other factors have occurred that have dramatically altered the disease transmission over time. Conclusion We presented a modelling approach that we believe can be easily adopted by others, and immediately useful for local or state planning.« less
Abstract In this work, reconfigurable metafilm absorbers based on indium silicon oxide (ISO) were investigated. The metafilm absorbers consist of nanoscale metallic resonator arrays on metal-insulator-metal (MIM) multilayer structures. The ISO was used as an active tunable layer embedded in the MIM cavities. The tunable metafilm absorbers with ISO were then fabricated and characterized. A maximum change in the reflectance of 57% and up to 620 nm shift in the resonance wavelength were measured.
Abstract Lepton scattering is an established ideal tool for studying inner structure of small particles such as nucleons as well as nuclei. As a future high energy nuclear physics project, an Electron-ion collider in China (EicC) has been proposed. It will be constructed based on an upgraded heavy-ion accelerator, High Intensity heavy-ion Accelerator Facility (HIAF) which is currently under construction, together with a new electron ring. The proposed collider will provide highly polarized electrons (with a polarization of ∼80%) and protons (with a polarization of ∼70%) with variable center of mass energies from 15 to 20 GeV and the luminositymore »of (2–3) × 10 33 cm −2 · s −1 . Polarized deuterons and Helium-3, as well as unpolarized ion beams from Carbon to Uranium, will be also available at the EicC. The main foci of the EicC will be precision measurements of the structure of the nucleon in the sea quark region, including 3D tomography of nucleon; the partonic structure of nuclei and the parton interaction with the nuclear environment; the exotic states, especially those with heavy flavor quark contents. In addition, issues fundamental to understanding the origin of mass could be addressed by measurements of heavy quarkonia near-threshold production at the EicC. In order to achieve the above-mentioned physics goals, a hermetical detector system will be constructed with cutting-edge technologies. This document is the result of collective contributions and valuable inputs from experts across the globe. The EicC physics program complements the ongoing scientific programs at the Jefferson Laboratory and the future EIC project in the United States. The success of this project will also advance both nuclear and particle physics as well as accelerator and detector technology in China.« less
Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2022
