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Abstract The sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature ( $T_a$) to anthropogenic heat flux ( $Q_{AH}$) is known to vary with space and time, but the key factors controlling such spatiotemporal variabilities remain elusive. To quantify the contributions of different physical processes to the magnitude and variability of $\mathrm{\Delta }{T}_a/\mathrm{\Delta }{Q}_{AH}$(where $\mathrm{\Delta }$represents a change), we develop a forcing-feedback framework based on the energy budget of air within the urban canopy layer and apply it to diagnosing $\mathrm{\Delta }{T}_a/\mathrm{\Delta }{Q}_{AH}$simulated by the Community Land Model Urban over the contiguous United States (CONUS). In summer, the median $\mathrm{\Delta }{T}_a/\mathrm{\Delta }{Q}_{AH}$is around 0.01 $\text{K\hspace{0.17em}}{\left(\text{W\hspace{0.17em}}{\text{m}}^{-\text{2}}\right)}^{-1}$over the CONUS. Besides the direct effect of $Q_{AH}$on $T_a$, there are important feedbacks through changes in the surface temperature, the atmosphere–canopy air heat conductance ( $c_a$), and the surface–canopy air heat conductance. The positive and negative feedbacks nearly cancel each other out and $\mathrm{\Delta }{T}_a/\mathrm{\Delta }{Q}_{AH}$is mostly controlled by the direct effect in summer. In winter, $\mathrm{\Delta }{T}_a/\mathrm{\Delta }{Q}_{AH}$becomes stronger, with the median value increased by about 20% due to weakened negative feedback associated with $c_a$. The spatial and temporal (both seasonal and diurnal) variability of $\mathrm{\Delta }{T}_a/\mathrm{\Delta }{Q}_{AH}$as well as the nonlinear response of $\mathrm{\Delta }{T}_a$to $\mathrm{\Delta }{Q}_{AH}$are strongly related to the variability of $c_a$, highlighting the importance of correctly parameterizing convective heat transfer in urban canopy models. 

Abstract While a large latitudinal displacement of the westerly jet brings about disproportionate socioeconomic impacts over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude continents, it is not well understood as to whether the winter circulation will become wavier or less in response to climate change. Here, using observations and large ensembles of climate models, we show that changes in atmospheric waviness can be estimated from the optimal structures of the westerly jet for wavier circulation, which are obtained from an advection‐diffusion model. Thus, the changes in westerly jet structure in climate models under climate change provide a physical constraint on changes in atmospheric waviness, indicating that the North Atlantic wave activity will experience a robust decline in a warmer climate, while future North Pacific wave activity is obscured by model uncertainty rather than internal variability. These findings highlight the changes to jet stream structure as a constraint for regional circulation waviness in a changing climate. 

Abstract The tropical tropospheric temperature is close to but typically cooler than that of the moist adiabat. The negative temperature deviation from the moist adiabat manifests a C-shape profile and is projected to increase and stretch upward under warming in both comprehensive climate models and idealized radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations. The increased temperature deviation corresponds to a larger convective available potential energy (CAPE) under warming. The extreme convective updraft velocity in RCE increases correspondingly but at a smaller fractional rate than that of CAPE. A conceptual model for the tropical temperature deviation and convective updraft velocities is formulated to understand these features. The model builds on the previous zero-buoyancy model but replaces the bulk zero-buoyancy plume by a spectrum of entraining plumes that have distinct entrainment rates and are positively buoyant until their levels of neutral buoyancy. Besides the negative temperature deviation and its increasing magnitude with warming, this allows the spectral plume model to further predict the C-shape profile as well as its upward stretch with warming. By representing extreme convective updrafts as weakly entraining plumes, the model is able to reproduce the smaller fractional increase in convective velocities with warming as compared to that of CAPE. The smaller fractional increase is mainly caused by the upward stretch in the temperature deviation profile with warming, which reduces the ratio between the integrated plume buoyancy and CAPE. The model thus provides a useful tool for understanding the tropical temperature profile and convective updraft velocities. 

Abstract Studies have indicated that North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability can significantly modulate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but there has been little effort to put extratropical–tropical interactions into the context of historical events. To quantify the role of the North Pacific in pacing the timing and magnitude of observed ENSO, we use a fully coupled climate model to produce an ensemble of North Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (nPOGA) SST pacemaker simulations. In nPOGA, SST anomalies are restored back to observations in the North Pacific (>15°N) but are free to evolve throughout the rest of the globe. We find that the North Pacific SST has significantly influenced observed ENSO variability, accounting for approximately 15% of the total variance in boreal fall and winter. The connection between the North and tropical Pacific arises from two physical pathways: 1) a wind–evaporation–SST (WES) propagating mechanism, and 2) a Gill-like atmospheric response associated with anomalous deep convection in boreal summer and fall, which we refer to as the summer deep convection (SDC) response. The SDC response accounts for 25% of the observed zonal wind variability around the equatorial date line. On an event-by-event basis, nPOGA most closely reproduces the 2014/15 and the 2015/16 El Niños. In particular, we show that the 2015 Pacific meridional mode event increased wind forcing along the equator by 20%, potentially contributing to the extreme nature of the 2015/16 El Niño. Our results illustrate the significant role of extratropical noise in pacing the initiation and magnitude of ENSO events and may improve the predictability of ENSO on seasonal time scales.