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Long-standing interpretations of the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 ± 2000 years ago) in Australia suggest that the period was extremely cold and arid, during which the Indo-Australian summer monsoon system collapsed, and human populations declined and retreated to ecological refuges to survive. Here, we use transient iTRACE simulations, combined with palaeoclimate proxy records and archaeological data to re-interpret the late Last Glacial Maximum and terminal Pleistocene (21,000 – 11,000 years) in Australia. The model suggests climates during the peak Last Glacial Maximum were cooler than present (−4 to −11 °C), but there is no evidence of monsoon collapse or substantial decreases in moisture balance across Australia. Kernel Density Estimates of archaeological ages show relatively stable and persistent human activity across most regions throughout the late Last Glacial Maximum and terminal Pleistocene, consistent with genetic evidence. Spatial coverage of archaeological sites steadily increased across the terminal Pleistocene; however, substantial population change is not evident.

 

Understanding the hydroclimate representations of precipitationδ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_p) in tropical South America (TSA) is crucial for climate reconstruction from available speleothem caves. Our preceding study (Part I) highlights a heterogeneous response in millennial hydroclimate over the TSA during the last deglaciation (20–11 ka before present), characterized by a northwest–southeast (NW–SE) dipole in both rainfall andδ¹⁸O_p, with opposite signs between central-western Amazon and eastern Brazil. Mechanisms of suchδ¹⁸O_pdipole response are further investigated in this study with the aid of moisture tagging simulations. In response to increased meltwater discharge, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) migrates southward, causing a moisture source location shift and depleting the isotopic value of the vapor transported into eastern Brazil, which almost entirely contributes to theδ¹⁸O_pdepletion in eastern Brazil (SE pole). In contrast, the moisture source location change and local condensation change (due to the lowering convergence level and increased rain reevaporation in unsaturated subcloud layers) contribute nearly equally to theδ¹⁸O_penrichment in the central-western Amazon (NW pole). Therefore, although a clear inverse relationship betweenδ¹⁸O_pand rainfall in both dipole regions seems to support the “amount effect,” we argue that the local rainfall amount only partially interprets the millennialδ¹⁸O_pchange in the central-western Amazon, whileδ¹⁸O_pdoes not document local rainfall change in eastern Brazil. Thus, the paleoclimate community should be cautious when usingδ¹⁸O_pas a proxy for past local precipitation in the TSA region. Finally, we discuss the discrepancy between the model and speleothem proxies on capturing the millennialδ¹⁸O_pdipole response and pose a challenge in reconciling the discrepancy.

We want to comprehensively understand the hydroclimate footprints ofδ¹⁸O_pand the mechanisms of the millennial variability ofδ¹⁸O_pover tropical South America with the help of water tagging experiments performed by the isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). We argue that the millennialδ¹⁸O_pchange in eastern Brazil mainly documents the moisture source location change associated with ITCZ migration and the change of the isotopic value of the incoming water vapor, instead of the local rainfall amount. In contrast, the central-western Amazon partially documents the moisture source location shift and local precipitation change. Our study cautions that one should not simply resort to the isotopic “amount effect” to reconstruct past precipitation in tropical regions without studying the mechanisms behind it.

 

Oxygen isotope speleothems have been widely used to infer past climate changes over tropical South America (TSA). However, the spatial patterns of the millennial precipitation and precipitationδ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_p) response have remained controversial, and their response mechanisms are unclear. In particular, it is not clear whether the regional precipitation represents the intensity of the millennial South American summer monsoon (SASM). Here, we study the TSA hydroclimate variability during the last deglaciation (20–11 ka ago) by combining transient simulations of an isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM) and the speleothem records over the lowland TSA. Our model reasonably simulates the deglacial evolution of hydroclimate variables and water isotopes over the TSA, albeit underestimating the amplitude of variability. North Atlantic meltwater discharge is the leading factor driving the TSA’s millennial hydroclimate variability. The spatial pattern of both precipitation andδ¹⁸O_pshow a northwest–southeast dipole associated with the meridional migration of the intertropical convergence zone, instead of a continental-wide coherent change as inferred in many previous works on speleothem records. The dipole response is supported by multisource paleoclimate proxies. In response to increased meltwater forcing, the SASM weakened (characterized by a decreased low-level easterly wind) and consequently reduced rainfall in the western Amazon and increased rainfall in eastern Brazil. A similar dipole response is also generated by insolation, ice sheets, and greenhouse gases, suggesting an inherent stability of the spatial characteristics of the SASM regardless of the external forcing and time scales. Finally, we discuss the potential reasons for the model–proxy discrepancy and pose the necessity to build more paleoclimate proxy data in central-western Amazon.

We want to reconcile the controversy on whether there is a coherent or heterogeneous response in millennial hydroclimate over tropical South America and to clearly understand the forcing mechanisms behind it. Our isotope-enabled transient simulations fill the gap in speleothem reconstructions to capture a complete picture of millennial precipitation/δ¹⁸O_pand monsoon intensity change. We highlight a heterogeneous dipole response in precipitation andδ¹⁸O_pon millennial and orbital time scales. Increased meltwater discharge shifts ITCZ southward and favors a wet condition in coastal Brazil. Meanwhile, the low-level easterly and the summer monsoon intensity reduced, causing a dry condition in the central-western Amazon. However, the millennial variability of hydroclimate response is underestimated in our model, together with the lack of direct paleoclimate proxies in the central-west Amazon, complicating the interpretation of changes in specific paleoclimate events and posing a challenge to constraining the spatial range of the dipole. Therefore, we emphasize the necessity to increase the source of proxies, enhance proxy interpretations, and improve climate model performance in the future.

 

Abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation have been well preserved in proxy records across the globe. However, one long-standing puzzle is the apparent absence of the onset of the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) cold event around 18 ka in Greenland ice core oxygen isotope δ 18 O records, inconsistent with other proxies. Here, combining proxy records with an isotope-enabled transient deglacial simulation, we propose that a substantial HS1 cooling onset did indeed occur over the Arctic in winter. However, this cooling signal in the depleted oxygen isotopic composition is completely compensated by the enrichment because of the loss of winter precipitation in response to sea ice expansion associated with AMOC slowdown during extreme glacial climate. In contrast, the Arctic summer warmed during HS1 and YD because of increased insolation and greenhouse gases, consistent with snowline reconstructions. Our work suggests that Greenland δ 18 O may substantially underestimate temperature variability during cold glacial conditions. 

The Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) is an essential global ocean water mass at intermediate depths. Coupled climate models in isotope‐enabled (δ¹⁸O,δD), fully coupled Community Earth System Model and Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 consistently show shallower AAIW depth at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) due to the northward shift of AAIW. More importantly, modeling results suggest that the northward shift of AAIW can be caused by sea ice expansion and the weakened hydrological cycle under the glacial climate. On the contrary, the AAIW under global warming tends to shift poleward compared to the pre‐industrial period driven by the retreating sea ice and strengthened hydrological cycle. However, the AAIW depth will shallow in response to the ongoing warming, likely due to the overwhelming effects of enhanced stratification and shallowing mixed layer.