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As climate change causes the environment to shift away from the local optimum that populations have adapted to, fitness declines are predicted to occur. Recently, methods known as genomic offsets (GOs) have become a popular tool to predict population responses to climate change from landscape genomic data. Populations with a high GO have been interpreted to have a high “genomic vulnerability” to climate change. GOs are often implicitly interpreted as a fitness offset, or a change in fitness of an individual or population in a new environment compared to a reference. However, there are several different types of fitness offset that can be calculated, and the appropriate choice depends on the management goals. This study uses hypothetical and empirical data to explore situations in which different types of fitness offsets may or may not be correlated with each other or with a GO. The examples reveal that even when GOs predict fitness offsets in a common garden experiment, this does not necessarily validate their ability to predict fitness offsets to environmental change. Conceptual examples are also used to show how a large GO can arise under a positive fitness offset, and thus cannot be interpreted as a population vulnerability. These issues can be resolved with robust validation experiments that can evaluate which fitness offsets are correlated with GOs.

 

Multivariate climate change presents an urgent need to understand how species adapt to complex environments. Population genetic theory predicts that loci under selection will form monotonic allele frequency clines with their selective environment, which has led to the wide use of genotype–environment associations (GEAs). This study used a set of simulations to elucidate the conditions under which allele frequency clines are more or less likely to evolve as multiple quantitative traits adapt to multivariate environments. Phenotypic clines evolved with nonmonotonic (i.e., nonclinal) patterns in allele frequencies under conditions that promoted unique combinations of mutations to achieve the multivariate optimum in different parts of the landscape. Such conditions resulted from interactions among landscape, demography, pleiotropy, and genetic architecture. GEA methods failed to accurately infer the genetic basis of adaptation under a range of scenarios due to first principles (clinal patterns did not evolve) or statistical issues (clinal patterns evolved but were not detected due to overcorrection for structure). Despite the limitations of GEAs, this study shows that a back-transformation of multivariate ordination can accurately predict individual multivariate traits from genotype and environmental data regardless of whether inference from GEAs was accurate. In addition, frameworks are introduced that can be used by empiricists to quantify the importance of clinal alleles in adaptation. This research highlights that multivariate trait prediction from genotype and environmental data can lead to accurate inference regardless of whether the underlying loci display clinal or nonmonotonic patterns. 

Complex statistical methods are continuously developed across the fields of ecology, evolution, and systematics (EES). These fields, however, lack standardized principles for evaluating methods, which has led to high variability in the rigor with which methods are tested, a lack of clarity regarding their limitations, and the potential for misapplication. In this review, we illustrate the common pitfalls of method evaluations in EES, the advantages of testing methods with simulated data, and best practices for method evaluations. We highlight the difference between method evaluation and validation and review how simulations, when appropriately designed, can refine the domain in which a method can be reliably applied. We also discuss the strengths and limitations of different evaluation metrics. The potential for misapplication of methods would be greatly reduced if funding agencies, reviewers, and journals required principled method evaluation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 53 is November 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates. 

Across many species where inversions have been implicated in local adaptation, genomes often evolve to contain multiple, large inversions that arise early in divergence. Why this occurs has yet to be resolved. To address this gap, we built forward-time simulations in which inversions have flexible characteristics and can invade a metapopulation undergoing spatially divergent selection for a highly polygenic trait. In our simulations, inversions typically arose early in divergence, captured standing genetic variation upon mutation, and then accumulated many small-effect loci over time. Under special conditions, inversions could also arise late in adaptation and capture locally adapted alleles. Polygenic inversions behaved similarly to a single supergene of large effect and were detectable by genome scans. Our results show that characteristics of adaptive inversions found in empirical studies (e.g. multiple large, old inversions that are F ST outliers, sometimes overlapping with other inversions) are consistent with a highly polygenic architecture, and inversions do not need to contain any large-effect genes to play an important role in local adaptation. By combining a population and quantitative genetic framework, our results give a deeper understanding of the specific conditions needed for inversions to be involved in adaptation when the genetic architecture is polygenic. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Genomic architecture of supergenes: causes and evolutionary consequences’. 

Supergenes are tightly linked sets of loci that are inherited together and control complex phenotypes. While classical supergenes—governing traits such as wing patterns in Heliconius butterflies or heterostyly in Primula —have been studied since the Modern Synthesis, we still understand very little about how they evolve and persist in nature. The genetic architecture of supergenes is a critical factor affecting their evolutionary fate, as it can change key parameters such as recombination rate and effective population size, potentially redirecting molecular evolution of the supergene in addition to the surrounding genomic region. To understand supergene evolution, we must link genomic architecture with evolutionary patterns and processes. This is now becoming possible with recent advances in sequencing technology and powerful forward computer simulations. The present theme issue brings together theoretical and empirical papers, as well as opinion and synthesis papers, which showcase the architectural diversity of supergenes and connect this to critical processes in supergene evolution, such as polymorphism maintenance and mutation accumulation. Here, we summarize those insights to highlight new ideas and methods that illuminate the path forward for the study of supergenes in nature. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Genomic architecture of supergenes: causes and evolutionary consequences’. 

Genome assembly can be challenging for species that are characterized by high amounts of polymorphism, heterozygosity, and large effective population sizes. High levels of heterozygosity can result in genome mis-assemblies and a larger than expected genome size due to the haplotig versions of a single locus being assembled as separate loci. Here, we describe the first chromosome-level genome for the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica. Publicly released and annotated in 2017, the assembly has a scaffold N50 of 54 mb and is over 97.3% complete based on BUSCO analysis. The genome assembly for the eastern oyster is a critical resource for foundational research into molluscan adaptation to a changing environment and for selective breeding for the aquaculture industry. Subsequent resequencing data suggested the presence of haplotigs in the original assembly, and we developed a post hoc method to break up chimeric contigs and mask haplotigs in published heterozygous genomes and evaluated improvements to the accuracy of downstream analysis. Masking haplotigs had a large impact on SNP discovery and estimates of nucleotide diversity and had more subtle and nuanced effects on estimates of heterozygosity, population structure analysis, and outlier detection. We show that haplotig masking can be a powerful tool for improving genomic inference, and we present an open, reproducible resource for the masking of haplotigs in any published genome. 

Complex life cycles, in which discrete life stages of the same organism differ in form or function and often occupy different ecological niches, are common in nature. Because stages share the same genome, selective effects on one stage may have cascading consequences through the entire life cycle. Theoretical and empirical studies have not yet generated clear predictions about how life cycle complexity will influence patterns of adaptation in response to rapidly changing environments or tested theoretical predictions for fitness trade-offs (or lack thereof) across life stages. We discuss complex life cycle evolution and outline three hypotheses—ontogenetic decoupling, antagonistic ontogenetic pleiotropy and synergistic ontogenetic pleiotropy—for how selection may operate on organisms with complex life cycles. We suggest a within-generation experimental design that promises significant insight into composite selection across life cycle stages. As part of this design, we conducted simulations to determine the power needed to detect selection across a life cycle using a population genetic framework. This analysis demonstrated that recently published studies reporting within-generation selection were underpowered to detect small allele frequency changes (approx. 0.1). The power analysis indicates challenging but attainable sampling requirements for many systems, though plants and marine invertebrates with high fecundity are excellent systems for exploring how organisms with complex life cycles may adapt to climate change.