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Sea‐level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage these risks. Representing the often deep uncertainties influencing these risks poses nontrivial challenges. A common uncertainty characterization approach is to use a few benchmark cases to represent the range and relative probabilities of the set of possible outcomes. This has been done in coastal adaptation studies, for example, by using low, moderate, and high percentiles of an input of interest, like sea‐level changes. A key consideration is how this simplified characterization of uncertainty influences the distributions of estimated coastal impacts. Here, we show that using only a few benchmark percentiles to represent uncertainty in future sea‐level change can lead to overconfident projections and underestimate high‐end risks as compared to using full ensembles for sea‐level change and socioeconomic parametric uncertainties. When uncertainty in future sea level is characterized by low, moderate, and high percentiles of global mean sea‐level rise, estimates of high‐end (95th percentile) damages are underestimated by between 18% (SSP1‐2.6) and 46% (SSP5‐8.5). Additionally, using the 5th and 95th percentiles of sea‐level scenarios underestimates the 5%–95% width of the distribution of adaptation costs by a factor ranging from about two to four, depending on SSP‐RCP pathway. The resulting underestimation of the uncertainty range in adaptation costs can bias adaptation and mitigation decision‐making.

 

Node-Kayles is an impartial game played on a simple graph. The Sprague-Grundy theorem states that every impartial game is associated with a nonnegative integer value called a Nimber. This paper studies the Nimber sequences of various families of graphs, including 3-paths, lattice graphs, prism graphs, chained cliques, linked cliques, linked cycles, linked diamonds, hypercubes, and generalized Petersen graphs. For most of these families, we determine an explicit formula or a recursion on their Nimber sequences. 

This paper proposes to perform unsupervised detection of bioacous- tic events by pooling the magnitudes of spectrogram frames after per-channel energy normalization (PCEN). Although PCEN was originally developed for speech recognition, it also has beneficial effects in enhancing animal vocalizations, despite the presence of atmospheric absorption and intermittent noise. We prove that PCEN generalizes logarithm-based spectral flux, yet with a tunable time scale for background noise estimation. In comparison with point- wise logarithm, PCEN reduces false alarm rate by 50x in the near field and 5x in the far field, both on avian and marine bioacoustic datasets. Such improvements come at moderate computational cost and require no human intervention, thus heralding a promising future for PCEN in bioacoustics. 

In this paper, we present the first high‐speed video observation of a cloud‐to‐ground lightning flash and its associated downward‐directed Terrestrial Gamma‐ray Flash (TGF). The optical emission of the event was observed by a high‐speed video camera running at 40,000 frames per second in conjunction with the Telescope Array Surface Detector, Lightning Mapping Array, interferometer, electric‐field fast antenna, and the National Lightning Detection Network. The cloud‐to‐ground flash associated with the observed TGF was formed by a fast downward leader followed by a very intense return stroke peak current of −154 kA. The TGF occurred while the downward leader was below cloud base, and even when it was halfway in its propagation to ground. The suite of gamma‐ray and lightning instruments, timing resolution, and source proximity offer us detailed information and therefore a unique look at the TGF phenomena.

 

Because of the pervasive role of water in the Earth system, the relative abundances of stable isotopologues of water are valuable for understanding atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric processes, and for interpreting paleoclimate proxy reconstructions. Isotopologues are transported by both large‐scale and turbulent flows, and the ratio of heavy to light isotopologues changes due to fractionation that can accompany condensation and evaporation processes. Correctly predicting the isotopic distributions requires resolving the relationships between large‐scale ocean and atmospheric circulation and smaller‐scale hydrological processes, which can be accomplished within a coupled climate modeling framework. Here we present the water isotope‐enabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (iCESM1), which simulates global variations in water isotopic ratios in the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice. In a transient Last Millennium simulation covering the 850–2005 period, iCESM1 correctly captures the late‐twentieth‐century structure of δ¹⁸O and δD over the global oceans, with more limited accuracy over land. The relationship between salinity and seawater δ¹⁸O is also well represented over the observational period, including interbasin variations. We illustrate the utility of coupled, isotope‐enabled simulations using both Last Millennium simulations and freshwater hosing experiments with iCESM1. Closing the isotopic mass balance between all components of the coupled model provides new confidence in the underlying depiction of the water cycle in CESM, while also highlighting areas where the underlying hydrologic balance can be improved. The iCESM1 is poised to be a vital community resource for ongoing model development with both modern and paleoclimate applications.

 

Abstract For several decades, the origin of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) has been an unsolved question of high-energy astrophysics. One approach for solving this puzzle is to correlate UHECRs with high-energy neutrinos, since neutrinos are a direct probe of hadronic interactions of cosmic rays and are not deflected by magnetic fields. In this paper, we present three different approaches for correlating the arrival directions of neutrinos with the arrival directions of UHECRs. The neutrino data are provided by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory and ANTARES, while the UHECR data with energies above ∼50 EeV are provided by the Pierre Auger Observatory and the Telescope Array. All experiments provide increased statistics and improved reconstructions with respect to our previous results reported in 2015. The first analysis uses a high-statistics neutrino sample optimized for point-source searches to search for excesses of neutrino clustering in the vicinity of UHECR directions. The second analysis searches for an excess of UHECRs in the direction of the highest-energy neutrinos. The third analysis searches for an excess of pairs of UHECRs and highest-energy neutrinos on different angular scales. None of the analyses have found a significant excess, and previously reported overfluctuations are reduced in significance. Based on these results, we further constrain the neutrino flux spatially correlated with UHECRs.