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The Greenland Ice Sheet is the primary source of global Barystatic sea‐level rise, and at least half of its recent mass‐loss acceleration is caused by surface meltwater runoff. Previous studies on surface melt have examined various thermodynamic and dynamic drivers, yet their contributions are not compared using unified observations. We use decade‐long in‐situ measurements from automatic weather stations throughout the ablation zone to assess energy components and identify the leading physical processes in this area. Large melt events exceeding 3σcontribute only ∼2% to total surface melt since 2007. The day‐to‐day variability of all melt is dominated by sensible heat exchange (31 ± 7%) and shortwave radiation (28 ± 5%). Sensible and solar heating correlate with the occurrence of dry and fast gravity‐driven winds. These katabatic winds increase sensible heating of the surface mainly by enhancing vertical mixing that reduces the temperature inversion. The concomitant low humidity and clear skies yield increased solar heating.

 

We explore the potential of feed‐forward deep neural networks (DNNs) for emulating cloud superparameterization in realistic geography, using offline fits to data from the superparameterized community atmospheric model. To identify the network architecture of greatest skill, we formally optimize hyperparameters using ∼250 trials. Our DNN explains over 70% of the temporal variance at the 15‐min sampling scale throughout the mid‐to‐upper troposphere. Autocorrelation timescale analysis compared against DNN skill suggests the less good fit in the tropical, marine boundary layer is driven by neural network difficulty emulating fast, stochastic signals in convection. However, spectral analysis in the temporal domain indicates skillful emulation of signals on diurnal to synoptic scales. A closer look at the diurnal cycle reveals correct emulation of land‐sea contrasts and vertical structure in the heating and moistening fields, but some distortion of precipitation. Sensitivity tests targeting precipitation skill reveal complementary effects of adding positive constraints versus hyperparameter tuning, motivating the use of both in the future. A first attempt to force an offline land model with DNN emulated atmospheric fields produces reassuring results further supporting neural network emulation viability in real‐geography settings. Overall, the fit skill is competitive with recent attempts by sophisticated Residual and Convolutional Neural Network architectures trained on added information, including memory of past states. Our results confirm the parameterizability of superparameterized convection with continents through machine learning and we highlight the advantages of casting this problem locally in space and time for accurate emulation and hopefully quick implementation of hybrid climate models.

 

Warm and dry föhn winds on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) cause surface melt that can destabilize vulnerable ice shelves. Topographic funneling of these downslope winds through mountain passes and canyons can produce localized wind‐induced melt that is difficult to quantify without direct measurements. Our Föhn Detection Algorithm (FöhnDA) identifies the surface föhn signature that causes melt from measurement by 12 Automatic Weather Stations on the AP, that train a machine learning model to detect föhn in 5 km Regional Atmospheric Climate Model 2 (RACMO2.3p2) simulations and in the ERA5 reanalysis model. We estimate the fraction of AP surface melt attributed to föhn and possibly katabatic winds and identify the drivers of melt, temporal variability, and long‐term trends and evolution from 1979–2018. We find that föhn wind‐induced melt accounts for 3.1% of the total melt on the AP and can be as high at 18% close to the mountains where the winds funnel through mountain canyons. Föhn‐induced surface melt does not significantly increase from 1979–2018, despite a warmer atmosphere and more positive Southern Annular Mode. However, a significant increase (+0.1 Gt y‐1) and subsequent decrease/stabilization occur in 1979–1998 and 1999–2018, consistent with the AP warming and cooling trends during the same time periods. Föhn occurrence, more than föhn strength, drives the annual variability in föhn‐induced melt. Long‐term föhn‐induced melt trends and evolution are attributable to seasonal changes in föhn occurrence, with increased occurrence in summer, and decreased occurrence in fall, winter, and early spring over the past 20 years.

 

We expose the statistical foundations of deep learning with the goal of facilitating conversation between the deep learning and statistics communities. We highlight core themes at the intersection; summarize key neural models, such as feedforward neural networks, sequential neural networks, and neural latent variable models; and link these ideas to their roots in probability and statistics. We also highlight research directions in deep learning where there are opportunities for statistical contributions. 

Abstract Modern tokamaks have achieved significant fusion production, but further progress towards steady-state operation has been stymied by a host of kinetic and MHD instabilities. Control and identification of these instabilities is often complicated, warranting the application of data-driven methods to complement and improve physical understanding. In particular, Alfvén eigenmodes are a class of ubiquitous mixed kinetic and MHD instabilities that are important to identify and control because they can lead to loss of confinement and potential damage to the walls of a plasma device. In the present work, we use reservoir computing networks to classify Alfvén eigenmodes in a large labeled database of DIII-D discharges, covering a broad range of operational parameter space. Despite the large parameter space, we show excellent classification and prediction performance, with an average hit rate of 91% and false alarm ratio of 7%, indicating promise for future implementation with additional diagnostic data and consolidation into a real-time control strategy. 

A bstract Distinguishing between prompt muons produced in heavy boson decay and muons produced in association with heavy-flavor jet production is an important task in analysis of collider physics data. We explore whether there is information available in calorimeter deposits that is not captured by the standard approach of isolation cones. We find that convolutional networks and particle-flow networks accessing the calorimeter cells surpass the performance of isolation cones, suggesting that the radial energy distribution and the angular structure of the calorimeter deposits surrounding the muon contain unused discrimination power. We assemble a small set of high-level observables which summarize the calorimeter information and close the performance gap with networks which analyze the calorimeter cells directly. These observables are theoretically well-defined and can be studied with collider data. 

We define a new family of similarity and distance measures on graphs, and explore their theoretical properties in comparison to conventional distance metrics. These measures are defined by the solution(s) to an optimization problem which attempts find a map minimizing the discrepancy between two graph Laplacian exponential matrices, under norm-preserving and sparsity constraints. Variants of the distance metric are introduced to consider such optimized maps under sparsity constraints as well as fixed time-scaling between the two Laplacians. The objective function of this optimization is multimodal and has discontinuous slope, and is hence difficult for univariate optimizers to solve. We demonstrate a novel procedure for efficiently calculating these optima for two of our distance measure variants. We present numerical experiments demonstrating that (a) upper bounds of our distance metrics can be used to distinguish between lineages of related graphs; (b) our procedure is faster at finding the required optima, by as much as a factor of 10 3 ; and (c) the upper bounds satisfy the triangle inequality exactly under some assumptions and approximately under others. We also derive an upper bound for the distance between two graph products, in terms of the distance between the two pairs of factors. Additionally, we present several possible applications, including the construction of infinite “graph limits” by means of Cauchy sequences of graphs related to one another by our distance measure.