Search for: All records

Abstract The response of highly productive croplands at northern mid-latitudes to climate change is a primary source of uncertainty in the global carbon cycle, and a concern for future food production. We present a decadal time series (2007 to 2019) of hourly CO 2 concentration measured at a very tall tower in the United States Corn Belt. Analyses of this record, with other long-term data in the region, reveal that warming has had a positive impact on net CO 2 uptake during the early crop growth stage, but has reduced net CO 2 uptake in both croplands and natural ecosystems during the peak growing season. Future increase in summer temperature is projected to reduce annual CO 2 sequestration in the Corn Belt by 10–20%. These findings highlight the dynamic control of warming on cropland CO 2 exchange and crop yields and challenge the paradigm that warming will continue to favor CO 2 sequestration in northern mid-latitude ecosystems.

Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) is the primary form of reactive nitrogen (Nr) and a precursor ofammonium (NH4+) aerosols. Ammonia has been linked to adverse impacts on human health, the loss ofecosystem biodiversity, and plays a key role in aerosol radiative forcing. The midwestern United States is themajor NH3source in North America because of dense livestock operations and the high use of syntheticnitrogen fertilizers. Here, we combine tall‐tower (100 m) observations in Minnesota and Weather Researchand Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) modeling to investigate high and low NH3emission episodes within the U.S. Corn Belt to improve our understanding of the distribution of emissionsources and transport processes. We examined observations and performed model simulations for cases inFebruary through November of 2017 and 2018. The results showed the following: (1) Peak emissions inNovember 2017 were enhanced by above‐normal air temperatures, implying aQ10(i.e., the change in NH3emissions for a temperature increase of 10°C) of 2.5 for emissions. (2) The intensive livestock emissionsrom northern Iowa, approximately 400 km away from the tall tower, accounted for 17.6% of theabundance in tall‐tower NH3mixing ratios. (3) Ammonia mixing ratios in the innermost domain 3frequently (i.e., 336 hr, 48% of November 2017) exceeded 5.3 ppb, an important air qualitymore »health standard.(4) In November 2017, simulated NH3net ecosystem exchange (the difference between NH3emissionsand dry deposition) accounted for 60–65% of gross NH3emissions for agricultural areas and was2.8–3.1 times the emissions of forested areas. (5) We estimated a mean annual NH3net ecosystem exchangeof 1.60 ± 0.06 nmol · m−2·s−1for agricultural lands and−0.07 ± 0.02 nmol · m−2·s−1for forested lands.These results imply that future warmer fall temperatures will enhance agricultural NH3emissions, increasethe frequency of dangerous NH3episodes, and enhance dry NH3deposition in adjacent forested lands.« less

Nitrous oxide (N2O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N2O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N2O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt—one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world—combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N2O emissions (316 Gg N2O-N⋅y−1 to 585 Gg N2O-N⋅y−1). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N2O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N2O-N⋅y−1, on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent amore »harbinger of intensifying N2O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N2O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals.« less