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Abstract Marsh accretion models predict the resiliency of coastal wetlands and their ability to store carbon in the face of accelerating sea level rise. Most existing marsh accretion models are derived from two parent models: the Marsh Equilibrium Model, which formalizes the biophysical relationships between sea level rise, dominant macrophyte growth, and elevation change; and the Cohort Theory Model, which formalizes how carbon mass pools belowground contribute to soil volume expansion over time. While there are several existing marsh accretion models, the application of these models by a broader base of researchers and practitioners is hindered because of (a) limited descriptions of how empirically derived ecological mechanism informed the development of these models, (b) limitations in the ability to apply models to geographies with variable tidal regimes, and (c) a lack of open‐source code to apply models. Here, we provide for the first time an explicit description of a mathematical version of the Cohort Theory Model and a numerical version of a combined model: the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with an accompanying open‐sourceRpackage,rCMEM. We show that, through this “depth‐aware” model, we can capture how tidal variation impacts broad patterns of marsh accretion and carbon sequestration across the United States. The application of this model will likely be imperative in predicting the fate and state of coastal wetlands and the ecosystem services they provide in an era of rapid environmental change. 

Abstract A network of 15 Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) at North Inlet estuary, South Carolina, has been monitored on annual or monthly time scales beginning from 1990 to 1996 and continuing through 2022. Of 73 time series in control plots, 12 had elevation gains equal to or exceeding the local rate of sea-level rise (SLR, 0.34 cm/year). Rising marsh elevation in North Inlet is dominated by organic production and, we hypothesize, is proportional to net ecosystem production. The rate of elevation gain was 0.47 cm/year in plots experimentally fertilized for 10 years with N&P compared to nearby control plots that have gained 0.1 cm/year in 26 years. The excess gains and losses of elevation in fertilized plots were accounted for by changes in belowground biomass and turnover. This is supported by bioassay experiments in marsh organs where at age 2 the belowground biomass of fertilizedS. alternifloraplants was increasing by 1,994 g m⁻² year⁻¹, which added a growth premium of 2.4 cm/year to elevation gain. This was contrasted with the net belowground growth of 746 g m⁻² year⁻¹in controls, which can add 0.89 cm/year to elevation. Root biomass density was greater in the fertilized bioassay treatments than in controls, plateauing at about 1,374 g m⁻²and 472 g m⁻², respectively. Growth of belowground biomass was dominated by rhizomes, which grew to 3,648 g m⁻²in the fertilized treatments after 3 years and 1,439 g m⁻²in the control treatments after 5 years. Depositional wetlands are limited by an exogenous supply of mineral sediment, whereas marshes like North Inlet could be classified as autonomous because they depend on in situ organic production to maintain elevation. Autonomous wetlands are more vulnerable to SLR because their elevation gains are constrained ultimately by photosynthetic efficiency. 

Abstract The frequency of salt marsh dieback events has increased over the last 25 years with unknown consequences to the resilience of the ecosystem to accelerated sea level rise (SLR). Salt marsh ecosystems impacted by sudden vegetation dieback events were previously thought to recover naturally within a few months to years. In this study, we used a 13‐year collection of remotely sensed imagery to provide evidence that approximately 14% of total marsh area has not revegetated 10 years after a dieback event in Charleston, SC. Dieback onset coincided with a severe drought in 2012, as indicated by the Palmer drought stress index. A second dieback event occurred in 2016 after a historic flood influenced by Hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Unvegetated zones reached nearly 30% of the total marsh area in 2017. We used a light detection and ranging‐derived digital elevation model to determine that most affected areas were associated with lower elevation zones in the interior of the marsh. Further, restoration by grass planting was effective, with pilot‐scale restored plots having greater aboveground biomass than reference sites after two years of transplanting. A positive outcome indicated that the stressors that caused the dieback are no longer present. Despite that, many affected areas have not recovered naturally, even though they are located within the typical elevation range of healthy marshes. A mechanistic modeling approach was used to assess the effects of vegetation dieback on salt marsh resilience to SLR. Predictions indicate that a highly productive restored marsh (2000 g m⁻² year⁻¹) would persist at a moderate SLR rate of 60 cm in 100 years, whereas a nonrestored mudflat would lose all its elevation capital after 100 years. Thus, rapid restoration of marsh dieback is critical to avoid further degradation. Also, failure to incorporate the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events that trigger irreversible marsh diebacks underestimates salt marsh vulnerability to climate change. Finally, at an elevated SLR rate of 122 cm in 100 years, which is most likely an extreme climate change scenario, even highly productive ecosystems augmented by sediment placement would not keep pace with SLR. Thus, climate change mitigation actions are also urgently needed to preserve present‐day marsh ecosystems. 

Different CO₂exchange pathways were monitored for a year in short- and tall-formSpartina alternifloragrasses in a southeastern USA salt marsh at North Inlet, South Carolina. The tall form of grass growing close to a creek under favorable conditions reached a higher standing biomass than the short form of grass growing in the interior marsh. However, the photosynthetic parameters of both forms of grass were equivalent. The tall canopy had greater net canopy production, 973 versus 571 g C m⁻²year⁻¹, canopy growth, 700 versus 131 g C m⁻²year⁻¹, and canopy respiration, 792 versus 225 g C m⁻²year⁻¹, but lower sediment respiration, 251 versus 392 g C m⁻²year⁻¹. In a single growing season, tall-canopy biomass increased to intercept all the available solar radiation, which limits gross photosynthesis. Total respiration increased during the growing season in proportion to live biomass to a level that limited net production. Theoretically, the difference between net canopy production and canopy growth is carbon allocated to belowground growth and respiration. However, the computation of belowground production by this method was unrealistically low. This is important because carbon sequestration is proportional to belowground production and accounts for most of the vertical elevation gain of the marsh surface. Based on the allometry of standing live biomass, alternative estimates of belowground production were 927 and 193 g C m⁻²year⁻¹in creekbank and interior marshes, which would yield gains in surface elevation of 0.2 and 0.04 cm/year, respectively. 

We review the functioning and sustainability of coastal marshes and mangroves. Urbanized humans have a 7,000-year-old enduring relationship to coastal wetlands. Wetlands include marshes, salt flats, and saline and freshwater forests. Coastal wetlands occur in all climate zones but are most abundant in deltas. Mangroves are tropical, whereas marshes occur from tropical to boreal areas. Quantification of coastal wetland areas has advanced in recent years but is still insufficiently accurate. Climate change and sea-level rise are predicted to lead to significant wetland losses and other impacts on coastal wetlands and the humans associated with them. Landward migration and coastal retreat are not expected to significantly reduce coastal wetland losses. Nitrogen watershed inputs are unlikely to alter coastal marsh stability because watershed loadings are mostly significantly lower than those in fertilization studies that show decreased belowground biomass and increased decomposition of soil organic matter. Blue carbon is not expected to significantly reduce climate impacts. The high values of ecosystem goods and services of wetlands are expected to be reduced by area losses. Humans have had strong impacts on coastal wetlands in the Holocene, and these impacts are expected to increase in the Anthropocene. 

Porewater nutrient concentrations were measured as a component of a long-term project seeking to understand how salt marsh primary production and sediment chemistry respond to anthropogenic (e.g. eutrophication) and natural (e.g. sea-level rise) environmental change. Feedbacks between plants, sediments, nutrients and flooding were investigated with particular attention to mechanisms that keep marshes in equilibrium with sea level. Other data collected as part of the project include aboveground macrophyte biomass, plant density, marsh surface elevation and annual above ground primary productivity. These data have been used to develop the Marsh Equilibrium Model, an important tool for coastal resource managers. Sampling occurred at Spartina alterniflora-dominated salt marsh sites in North Inlet, a relatively pristine estuary near Georgetown, SC on the SE coast of the United States. North Inlet is a tidally-dominated, bar-built estuary, with a semi-diurnal mixed tide and a tidal range of 1.4m. The 25-km2 estuary is comprised of about 20.5 km2 of intertidal salt marsh and mudflats, and 4.5 km2 of open water. Sampling began at two locations in December 1993, and at three additional locations in January 1994. Sampling occurred approximately monthly at these 5 locations through 2023. Sampling occurred at a sixth location from 2006 to 2010. The site was a dieback site that had recovered by 2010. At the other sites, the study is on-going. Porewater was collected at multiple depths from diffusion samplers and was analyzed for sulfide, salinity, ammonium, phosphate, and iron concentrations. There are five sampling locations at three sites. Two locations are in the low marsh; three locations are in the high marsh. One high marsh location had control sampling plots in addition to plots fertilized with nitrogen and phosphorus. 

Marsh elevation was measured with a Surface Elevation Table (SET) as a component of a long-term project seeking to understand how salt marsh primary production and sediment chemistry respond to anthropogenic (e.g. eutrophication) and natural (e.g. sea-level rise) environmental change. Feedbacks between plants, sediments, nutrients and flooding were investigated with particular attention to mechanisms that keep marshes in equilibrium with sea level. Other data collected as part of the project include aboveground annual primary productivity, plant biomass, plant density and porewater nutrient concentrations. These data have been used to develop the Marsh Equilibrium Model, an important tool for coastal resource managers. Sampling occurred at 7 Spartina alterniflora-dominated salt marsh sites in North Inlet, a relatively pristine estuary near Georgetown, SC on the SE coast of the United States. North Inlet is a tidally-dominated, bar-built estuary, with a semi-diurnal mixed tide and a tidal range of 1.4m. The 25-km2 estuary is comprised of about 20.5 km2 of intertidal salt marsh and mudflats, and 4.5 km2 of open water. Marsh elevation sampling began in 1990, 1991, 1996 or 2000, depending on the site. Sampling occurred approximately monthly or approximately annually through 2022. The study is on-going. Additionally, some plots were fertilized with nitrogen and phosphorus. 

Aboveground biomass and plant density were measured non-destructively as a component of a long-term project seeking to understand how salt marsh primary production and sediment chemistry respond to anthropogenic (e.g. eutrophication) and natural (e.g. sea-level rise) environmental change. Feedbacks between plants, sediments, nutrients and flooding were investigated with particular attention to mechanisms that keep marshes in equilibrium with sea level. Biomass was calculated from plant height measurements using allometric equations. Annual productivity was calculated from approximately-monthly biomass estimates. In addition to plant height measurements, observations of snails in sample plots were recorded. Other data collected as part of the project include marsh surface elevation and porewater nutrient concentrations. These data have been used to develop the Marsh Equilibrium Model, an important tool for coastal resource managers. Sampling occurred at Spartina alterniflora-dominated salt marsh sites in North Inlet, a relatively pristine estuary near Georgetown, SC on the SE coast of the United States. North Inlet is a tidally-dominated, bar-built estuary, with a semi-diurnal mixed tide and a tidal range of 1.4m. The 25-km2 estuary is comprised of about 20.5 km2 of intertidal salt marsh and mudflats, and 4.5 km2 of open water. Sampling began at one location in 1984, and at three additional locations in 1986. Sampling occurred approximately monthly through 2022. The study is on-going. There are four sampling locations at two sites. Two locations are in the low marsh; two locations are in the high marsh. One high marsh location had control sampling plots in addition to plots fertilized with nitrogen and phosphorus. 

Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh resilience: time to marsh drowning, time to marsh tipping point, and the probability of a regime shift, defined as the conditional probability of a transition to an alternative super-optimal, suboptimal, or drowned state. We used organic matter content (loss on ignition, LOI) and peat age combined with the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) to track wetland development and resilience under different sea-level rise scenarios in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) of California. A 100-year hindcast of the model showed excellent agreement ( R 2 = 0.96) between observed (2.86 mm/year) and predicted vertical accretion rates (2.98 mm/year) and correctly predicted a recovery in LOI ( R 2 = 0.76) after the California Gold Rush. Vertical accretion in the tidal freshwater marshes of the Delta is dominated by organic production. The large elevation range of the vegetation combined with high relative marsh elevation provides Delta marshes with resilience and elevation capital sufficiently great to tolerate centenary sea-level rise (CLSR) as high as 200 cm. The initial relative elevation of a marsh was a strong determinant of marsh survival time and tipping point. For a Delta marsh of average elevation, the tipping point at which vertical accretion no longer keeps up with the rate of sea-level rise is 50 years or more. Simulated, triennial additions of 6 mm of sediment via episodic atmospheric rivers increased the proportion of marshes surviving from 51% to 72% and decreased the proportion drowning from 49% to 28%. Our temporal metrics provide critical time frames for adaptively managing marshes, restoring marshes with the best chance of survival, and seizing opportunities for establishing migration corridors, which are all essential for safeguarding future habitats for sensitive species.