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Abstract This report briefly summarizes the key mentors in my scientific career and some lessons learned from those influential people. My primary advice to others: it is okay to do something wrong. By doing science we are doing something hard that, by definition, has not been done before. I believe that impostor syndrome is a real threat to researcher wellbeing and we should acknowledge its presence and support each other to get through it. Regarding an approach to science, I encourage you to get started and make something bad. Also, take time for yourself, it really does help your productivity. To lead others, I recommend to be enthusiastic, actively listen, and make connections across disciplines. I think it is important to foster creativity in those around you. I advocate that you actively make the future that you want to have. 

Abstract Previously, Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014,https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825) created estimates for a “perfect” interplanetary coronal mass ejection and performed simple calculations for the response of geospace, including. In this study, these estimates are used to drive a coupled magnetohydrodynamic‐ring current‐ionosphere model of geospace to obtain more physically accurate estimates of the geospace response to such an event. The sudden impulse phase is examined and compared to the estimations of Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014,https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825). The physics‐based simulation yields similar estimates for Dst rise, magnetopause compression, and equatorialvalues as the previous study. However, results diverge away from the equator.values in excess of 30 nT/s are found as low asmagnetic latitude. Under southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions, magnetopause erosion combines with strong region one Birkeland currents to intensify theresponse. Values obtained here surpass those found in historically recorded events and set the upper threshold of extreme geomagnetically induced current activity at Earth. 

Abstract Rosenqvist and Hall (2019),https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018SW002084developed a proof‐of‐concept modeling capability that incorporates a detailed 3D structure of Earth's electrical conductivity in a geomagnetically induced current estimation procedure (GIC‐SMAP). The model was verified based on GIC measurements in northern Sweden. The study showed that southern Sweden is exposed to stronger electric fields due to a combined effect of low crustal conductivity and the influence of the surrounding coast. This study aims at further verifying the model in this region. GIC measurements on a power line at the west coast of southern Sweden are utilized. The location of the transmission line was selected to include coast effects at the ocean‐land interface to investigate the importance of using 3D induction modeling methods. The model is used to quantify the hazard of severe GICs in this particular transmission line by using historic recordings of strong geomagnetic disturbances. To quantify a worst‐case scenario GICs are calculated from modeled magnetic disturbances by the Space Weather Modeling Framework based on estimates for an idealized extreme interplanetary coronal mass ejection. The observed and estimated GIC based on the 3D GIC‐SMAP procedure in the transmission line in southern Sweden are in good agreement. In contrast, 1D methods underestimate GICs by about 50%. The estimated GICs in the studied transmission line exceed 100 A for one of 14 historical geomagnetic storm intervals. The peak GIC during the sudden impulse phase of a “perfect” storm exceeds 300 A but depends on the locality of the station as the interplanetary magnetic cloud hits Earth. 

Abstract In this study, the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model is utilized to investigate the inter‐hemispheric asymmetry in the ionosphere‐thermosphere (I‐T) system at mid‐ and high‐latitudes (|geographic latitude| > 45°) associated with inter‐hemispheric differences in (a) the solar irradiance, (b) geomagnetic field, and (c) magnetospheric forcing under moderate geomagnetic conditions. Specifically, we have quantified the relative significance of the above three causes to the inter‐hemispheric asymmetries in the spatially weighted averaged E‐region electron density, F‐region neutral mass density, and horizontal neutral wind along with the hemispheric‐integrated Joule heating. Further, an asymmetry index defined as the percentage differences of these four quantities between the northern and southern hemispheres (|geographic latitude| > 45°) was calculated. It is found that: (a) The difference of the solar extreme ulutraviolet (EUV) irradiance plays a dominant role in causing inter‐hemispheric asymmetries in the four examined I‐T quantities. Typically, the asymmetry index for the E‐region electron density and integrated Joule heating at solstices with F10.7 = 150 sfu can reach 92.97% and 38.25%, respectively. (b) The asymmetric geomagnetic field can result in a strong daily variation of inter‐hemispheric asymmetries in the F‐region neutral wind and hemispheric‐integrated Joule heating over geographic coordinates. Their amplitude of asymmetry indices can be as large as 20.81% and 42.52%, which can be comparable to the solar EUV irradiance effect. (c) The contributions of the asymmetric magnetospheric forcing, including particle precipitation and ion convection pattern, can cause the asymmetry of integrated Joule heating as significant as 28.43% and 34.72%, respectively, which can be even stronger than other causes when the geomagnetic activity is intense. 

Abstract An intriguing aspect of the famous September 2, 1859 geomagnetic disturbance (or “Carrington” event) is the horizontal magnetic (B_H) data set measured in Colaba, India (magnetic latitude approximately 20°N). The field exhibits a sharp decrease of over 1,600 nT and a quick recovery of about 1,300 nT, all within a few hours during the daytime. The mechanism behind this has previously been attributed to magnetospheric processes, ionospheric processes or a combination of both. In this study, we outline our efforts to replicate this low‐latitude magnetic field using the Space Weather Modeling Framework. By simulating an extremely high pressure solar wind scenario, we can emulate the low‐latitude surface magnetic signal at Colaba. In our simulation, magnetospheric currents adjacent to the near‐Earth magnetopause and strong Region 1 field‐aligned currents are the main contributors to the large ColabaB_H. The rapid recovery ofB_Hin our simulated scenario is due to the retreat of these magnetospheric currents as the magnetosphere expands, as opposed to ring current dynamics. In addition, we find that the scenario that best emulated the surface magnetic field observations during the Carrington event had a minimum calculated Dst value between −431 and −1,191 nT, indicating that Dst may not be a suitable estimate of storm intensity for this kind of event. 

Abstract Space Weather Journal editors advocate for discussion of uncertainty and reliability in future journal manuscripts and throughout the space weather enterprise. 

Abstract We must be able to predict and mitigate against geomagnetically induced current (GIC) effects to minimize socio‐economic impacts. This study employs the space weather modeling framework (SWMF) to model the geomagnetic response over Fennoscandia to the September 7–8, 2017 event. Of key importance to this study is the effects of spatial resolution in terms of regional forecasts and improved GIC modeling results. Therefore, we ran the model at comparatively low, medium, and high spatial resolutions. The virtual magnetometers from each model run are compared with observations from the IMAGE magnetometer network across various latitudes and over regional‐scales. The virtual magnetometer data from the SWMF are coupled with a local ground conductivity model which is used to calculate the geoelectric field and estimate GICs in a Finnish natural gas pipeline. This investigation has lead to several important results in which higher resolution yielded: (1) more realistic amplitudes and timings of GICs, (2) higher amplitude geomagnetic disturbances across latitudes, and (3) increased regional variations in terms of differences between stations. Despite this, substorms remain a significant challenge to surface magnetic field prediction from global magnetohydrodynamic modeling. For example, in the presence of multiple large substorms, the associated large‐amplitude depressions were not captured, which caused the largest model‐data deviations. The results from this work are of key importance to both modelers and space weather operators. Particularly when the goal is to obtain improved regional forecasts of geomagnetic disturbances and/or more realistic estimates of the geoelectric field. 

Abstract We have developed a new procedure for combining lists of substorm onset times from multiple sources. We apply this procedure to observational data and to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model output from 1–31 January 2005. We show that this procedure is capable of rejecting false positive identifications and filling data gaps that appear in individual lists. The resulting combined onset lists produce a waiting time distribution that is comparable to previously published results, and superposed epoch analyses of the solar wind driving conditions and magnetospheric response during the resulting onset times are also comparable to previous results. Comparison of the substorm onset list from the MHD model to that obtained from observational data reveals that the MHD model reproduces many of the characteristic features of the observed substorms, in terms of solar wind driving, magnetospheric response, and waiting time distribution. Heidke skill scores show that the MHD model has statistically significant skill in predicting substorm onset times. 

Abstract There is considerable evidence that current sheet scattering (CSS) plays an important role in isotropic boundary (IB) formation during quiet time. However, IB formation can also result from scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves, which are much more prevalent during storm time. The effectiveness of CSS can be estimated by the parameter, the ratio of the field line radius of curvature to the particle gyroradius. Using magnetohydrodynamic and empirical models, we estimated the parameterKassociated with storm time IB observations on the nightside. We used magnetic field observations from spacecraft in the magnetotail to estimate and correct for errors in theKvalues computed by the models. We find that the magnetohydrodynamic and empirical models produce fairly similar results without correction and that correction increases this similarity. Accounting for uncertainty in both the latitude of the IB and the threshold value ofKrequired for CSS, we found that 29–54% of the IB observations satisfied the criteria for CSS. We found no correlation between the correctedKand magnetic local time, which further supports the hypothesis that CSS played a significant role in forming the observed IBs. 

Abstract Faraday's law of induction is responsible for setting up a geoelectric field due to the variations in the geomagnetic field caused by ionospheric currents. This drives geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which flow in large ground‐based technological infrastructure such as high‐voltage power lines. The geoelectric field is often a localized phenomenon exhibiting significant variations over spatial scales of only hundreds of kilometers. This is due to the complex spatiotemporal behavior of electrical currents flowing in the ionosphere and/or large gradients in the ground conductivity due to highly structured local geological properties. Over some regions, and during large storms, both of these effects become significant. In this study, we quantify the regional variability ofdB/dtusing closely placed IMAGE stations in northern Fennoscandia. The dependency between regional variability, solar wind conditions, and geomagnetic indices are also investigated. Finally, we assess the significance of spatial geomagnetic variations to modeling GICs across a transmission line. Key results from this study are as follows: (1) Regional geomagnetic disturbances are important in modeling GIC during strong storms; (2)dB/dtcan vary by several times up to a factor of three compared to the spatial average; (3)dB/dtand its regional variation is coupled to the energy deposited into the magnetosphere; and (4) regional variability can be more accurately captured and predicted from a local index as opposed to a global one. These results demonstrate the need for denser magnetometer networks at high latitudes where transmission lines extending hundreds of kilometers are present.