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We propose a binary classification model rooted in state‐of‐the‐art deep learning techniques to predict whether or not complete‐interface rupture is imminent along a numerical megathrust fault. The models are trained on labeled 2D space‐time input features taken from the synthetic fault system. We contrast the performance of two neural networks trained on three types of data, to determine the relative predictive power of each. The neural networks are able to discriminate imminent complete rupture precursors from everything else, thus providing a relative size and time forecast. Vertical displacements along the fault demonstrate relatively good predictive power. The results confirm previous qualitative observations that precursory deformation scales with upcoming event size, consistent with the preslip model for earthquake nucleation. The methods we propose are adaptable and can be modified to use 3D data in the future.

Earthquakes result from fast slip that occurs along a fault surface. Interestingly, numerous dense geodetic observations over the last two decades indicate that such dynamic slip may start by a gradual unlocking of the fault surface and related progressive slip acceleration. This first slow stage is of great interest, because it could define an early indicator of a devastating earthquake. However, not all slow slip turns into fast slip, and sometimes it may simply stop. In this study, we use a numerical model based on the discrete element method to simulate crustal strike‐slip faults of 50 km length that generate a wide variety of slip‐modes, from stable‐slip, to slow earthquakes, to fast earthquakes, all of which show similar characteristics to natural cases. The main goal of this work is to understand the conditions that allow slow events to turn into earthquakes, in contrast to those that cause slow earthquakes to stop. Our results suggest that fault surface geometry and related dilation/contraction patterns along strike play a key role. Slow earthquakes that initiate in large dilated regions bounded by neutral or low contracted domains, might turn into earthquakes. Slow events occurring in regions dominated by closely spaced, alternating, small magnitude dilational and contractional zones tend not to accelerate and may simply stop as isolated slow earthquakes.

Two adjacent segments of the Chile margin exhibit significant differences in earthquake magnitude and rupture extents during the 1960 Valdivia and 2010 Maule earthquakes. We use the discrete element method (DEM) to simulate the upper plate as having an inner and outer wedge defined by different frictional domains along the décollement. We find that outer wedge width strongly influences coseismic slip distributions. We use the published peak slip magnitudes to pick best fit slip distributions and compare our models to geophysical constraints on outer wedge widths for the margins. We obtain reasonable fits to published slip distributions for the 2010 Maule rupture. Our best‐fit slip distribution for the 1960 Valdivia earthquake suggests that peak slip occurred close to the trench, differing from published models but being supported by new seismic interpretations along this margin. Finally, we also demonstrate that frictional conditions beneath the outer wedge can affect the coseismic slip distributions.

We use the discrete element method to create numerical analogs to subduction megathrusts with natural roughness and heterogeneous fault friction. Boundary conditions simulate tectonic loading, inducing fault slip. Intermittently, slip develops into complex rupture events that include foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks. We probe the kinematics and stress evolution of the fault zone to gain insight into the physical processes that govern these phenomena. Prolonged, localized differential stress drops precede dynamic failure, a phenomenon we attribute to the gradual unlocking of contacts as the fault dilates prior to rupture. Slip stability in our system appears to be governed primarily by geometrical phenomena, which allow both slow and fast slip to take place at the same areas along the fault. Similarities in slip behavior between simulated faults and real subduction zones affirm that modeled physical processes are also at work in nature.

The large magnitude of the 2011M_w9.0 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, which occurred off the east coast of Japan, was not expected or predicted by any previous studies. One surprising observation was the sudden change in stress state; local earthquakes confirmed a compressional stress state before the main shock, whereas an extensional stress state was evident after the main shock. Using discrete element method modeling, this project attempts to reproduce the stress change after the main shock, and explores the conditions that can cause stress switching both onshore and offshore Tohoku. Our simulations demonstrate that rapid fault weakening can produce stress change and predominant normal‐fault earthquake mechanisms in the upper plate of Tohoku‐Oki. Several specific conditions seem to favor such stress switching; the megathrust fault must have been frictionally strong before the main shock, and comparable values of internal (μ_internal) and basal friction (μ_basal) are necessary to cause the formation of widespread normal faults within the wedge. Furthermore, dynamic extension during elastic unloading appears to play an important role in accommodating stress changes and wedge deformation in the Tohoku area; these cannot be explained solely based on Critical Coulomb Wedge models, but instead require dynamic unloading processes.