skip to main content


Search for: All records

Award ID contains: 1735316

Note: When clicking on a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) number, you will be taken to an external site maintained by the publisher. Some full text articles may not yet be available without a charge during the embargo (administrative interval).
What is a DOI Number?

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.

  1. Abstract

    Addressing how ecosystem services (ES) are distributed among groups of people is critical for making conservation and environmental policy-making more equitable. Here, we evaluate the distribution and equity of changes in ES benefits across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the United States (US) between 2020 and 2100. Specifically, we use land cover and population projections to model potential shifts in the supply, demand, and benefits of the following ES: provision of clean air, protection against a vector-borne disease (West Nile virus), and crop pollination. Across the US, changes in ES benefits are unevenly distributed among socioeconomic and demographic groups and among rural and urban communities, but are relatively uniform across geographic regions. In general, non-white, lower-income, and urban populations disproportionately bear the burden of declines in ES benefits. This is largely driven by the conversion of forests and wetlands to cropland and urban land cover in counties where these populations are expected to grow. In these locations, targeted land use policy interventions are required to avoid exacerbating inequalities already present in the US.

     
    more » « less
  2. Shifting range limits are predicted for many species as the climate warms. However, the rapid pace of climate change will challenge the natural dispersal capacity of long-lived, sessile organisms such as forest trees. Adaptive responses of populations will, therefore, depend on levels of genetic variation and plasticity for climate-responsive traits, which likely vary across the range due to expansion history and current patterns of selection. Here, we study levels of genetic and plastic variation for phenology and growth traits in populations of red spruce ( Picea rubens ), from the range core to the highly fragmented trailing edge. We measured more than 5000 offspring sampled from three genetically distinct regions (core, margin and edge) grown in three common gardens replicated along a latitudinal gradient. Genetic variation in phenology and growth showed low to moderate heritability and differentiation among regions, suggesting some potential to respond to selection. Phenology traits were highly plastic, but this plasticity was generally neutral or maladaptive in the effect on growth, revealing a potential liability under warmer climates. These results suggest future climate adaptation will depend on the regional availability of genetic variation in red spruce and provide a resource for the design and management of assisted gene flow. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’. 
    more » « less
  3. Tarnita, Corina E. (Ed.)
  4. null (Ed.)
  5. Powell, Roger (Ed.)
    Abstract Island biogeography theory (IBT) explains and estimates large-scale ecological patterns among islands and isolated habitat patches. Specifically, IBT predicts that the number of species per habitat patch differs as a function of area and isolation as a result of local colonization and extinction. Accurate estimates of species richness are essential for testing predictions of IBT, but differences in detectability of species can lead to bias in empirical data. Hierarchical community models correct for imperfect detection by leveraging information from across the community to estimate species-specific occupancy and detection probabilities. Using the fragmented Ozark glades as our model system, we constructed a hierarchical community model to 1) estimate site-level and regional species richness of small mammals while correcting for detection error, and 2) determine environmental covariates driving occupancy. We sampled 16 glades in southwestern Missouri in summer 2016–2017 and quantified mammal community structure within the glade network. The detected species pool included eight species, and the model yielded a regional species estimate of 8.6 species, with a mean of 3.47 species per glade. Species richness increased with patch area but not isolation, and effects of patch shape varied between species in the community. 
    more » « less