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ABSTRACT Examining the cues and drivers influencing seed production is crucial to better understand forest resilience to climate change. We explored the effects of five climatic variables on seed production over 22 years in an everwet Amazonian forest, by separating direct effects of these variables from indirect effects mediated through flower production. We observed a decline in seed production over the study period, which was primarily explained by direct effects of rising nighttime temperatures and declining average vapour pressure deficits. Higher daytime temperatures were positively related to seed output, mainly through a flower‐mediated effect, while rainfall effects on seed production were more nuanced, showing either positive or negative relationships depending on the seasonal timing of rains. If these trends continue, they are likely to lead to significant changes in forest dynamics, potentially impacting both forest structure and species composition. 

Abstract Forests sequester a substantial portion of anthropogenic carbon emissions. Many open questions concern how. We address two of these questions. Has leaf and fine litter production changed? And what is the contribution of old‐growth forests? We address these questions with long‐term records (≥10 years) of total, reproductive, and especially foliar fine litter production from 32 old‐growth forests. We expect increases in forest productivity associated with rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and, in cold climates, with rising temperatures. We evaluate the statistical power of our analysis using simulations of known temporal trends parameterized with sample sizes (in number of years) and levels of interannual variation observed for each record. Statistical power is inadequate to detect biologically plausible trends for records lasting less than 20 years. Modest interannual variation characterizes fine litter production, and more variable phenomena will require even longer records to evaluate global change responses with sufficient statistical power. Just four old‐growth forests have records of fine litter production lasting longer than 20 years, and these four provide no evidence for increases. Three of the four forests are in central Panama, also have long‐term records of wood production, and both components of aboveground production are unchanged over 21–38 years. The possibility that recent increases in forest productivity are limited for old‐growth forests deserves more attention. 

Abstract All species must partition resources among the processes that underly growth, survival, and reproduction. The resulting demographic trade‐offs constrain the range of viable life‐history strategies and are hypothesized to promote local coexistence. Tropical forests pose ideal systems to study demographic trade‐offs as they have a high diversity of coexisting tree species whose life‐history strategies tend to align along two orthogonal axes of variation: a growth–survival trade‐off that separates species with fast growth from species with high survival and a stature–recruitment trade‐off that separates species that achieve large stature from species with high recruitment. As these trade‐offs have typically been explored for trees ≥1 cm dbh, it is unclear how species' growth and survival during earliest seedling stages are related to the trade‐offs for trees ≥1 cm dbh. Here, we used principal components and correlation analyses to (1) determine the main demographic trade‐offs among seed‐to‐seedling transition rates and growth and survival rates from the seedling to overstory size classes of 1188 tree species from large‐scale forest dynamics plots in Panama, Puerto Rico, Ecuador, Taiwan, and Malaysia and (2) quantify the predictive power of maximum dbh, wood density, seed mass, and specific leaf area for species' position along these demographic trade‐off gradients. In four out of five forests, the growth–survival trade‐off was the most important demographic trade‐off and encompassed growth and survival of both seedlings and trees ≥1 cm dbh. The second most important trade‐off separated species with relatively fast growth and high survival at the seedling stage from species with relatively fast growth and high survival ≥1 cm dbh. The relationship between seed‐to‐seedling transition rates and these two trade‐off aces differed between sites. All four traits were significant predictors for species' position along the two trade‐off gradients, albeit with varying importance. We concluded that, after accounting for the species' position along the growth–survival trade‐off, tree species tend to trade off growth and survival at the seedling with later life stages. This ontogenetic trade‐off offers a mechanistic explanation for the stature–recruitment trade‐off that constitutes an additional ontogenetic dimension of life‐history variation in species‐rich ecosystems. 

ABSTRACT The fundamental trade‐off between current and future reproduction has long been considered to result in a tendency for species that can grow large to begin reproduction at a larger size. Due to the prolonged time required to reach maturity, estimates of tree maturation size remain very rare and we lack a global view on the generality and the shape of this trade‐off. Using seed production from five continents, we estimate tree maturation sizes for 486 tree species spanning tropical to boreal climates. Results show that a species' maturation size increases with maximum size, but in a non‐proportional way: the largest species begin reproduction at smaller sizes than would be expected if maturation were simply proportional to maximum size. Furthermore, the decrease in relative maturation size is steepest in cold climates. These findings on maturation size drivers are key to accurately represent forests' responses to disturbance and climate change. 

Abstract Flowering and fruiting phenology have been infrequently studied in the ever‐wet hyperdiverse lowland forests of northwestern equatorial Amazonía. These Neotropical forests are typically called aseasonal with reference to climate because they are ever‐wet, and it is often assumed they are also aseasonal with respect to phenology. The physiological limits to plant reproduction imposed by water and light availability are difficult to disentangle in seasonal forests because these variables are often temporally correlated, and both are rarely studied together, challenging our understanding of their relative importance as drivers of reproduction. Here we report on the first long‐term study (18 years) of flowering and fruiting phenology in a diverse equatorial forest, Yasuní in eastern Ecuador, and the first to include a full suite of on‐site monthly climate data. Using twice monthly censuses of 200 traps and >1000 species, we determined whether reproduction at Yasuní is seasonal at the community and species levels and analyzed the relationships between environmental variables and phenology. We also tested the hypothesis that seasonality in phenology, if present, is driven primarily by irradiance. Both the community‐ and species‐level measures demonstrated strong reproductive seasonality at Yasuní. Flowering peaked in September–November and fruiting peaked in March–April, with a strong annual signal for both phenophases. Irradiance and rainfall were also highly seasonal, even though no month on average experienced drought (a month with <100 mm rainfall). Flowering was positively correlated with current or near‐current irradiance, supporting our hypothesis that the extra energy available during the period of peak irradiance drives the seasonality of flowering at Yasuní. As Yasuní is representative of lowland ever‐wet equatorial forests of northwestern Amazonía, we expect that reproductive phenology will be strongly seasonal throughout this region. 

Abstract Phenology has long been hypothesized as an avenue for niche partitioning or interspecific facilitation, both promoting species coexistence. Tropical plant communities exhibit striking diversity in reproductive phenology, but many are also noted for large synchronous reproductive events. Here we study whether the phenology of seed fall in such communities is nonrandom, the temporal scales of phenological patterns, and ecological factors that drive reproductive phenology. We applied multivariate wavelet analysis to test for phenological synchrony versus compensatory dynamics (i.e., antisynchronous patterns where one species' decline is compensated by the rise of another) among species and across temporal scales. We used data from long‐term seed rain monitoring of hyperdiverse plant communities in the western Amazon. We found significant synchronous whole‐community phenology at multiple timescales, consistent with shared environmental responses or positive interactions among species. We also observed both compensatory and synchronous phenology within groups of species (confamilials) likely to share traits and seed dispersal mechanisms. Wind‐dispersed species exhibited significant synchrony at ~6‐month scales, suggesting these species might share phenological niches to match the seasonality of wind. Our results suggest that community phenology is shaped by shared environmental responses but that the diversity of tropical plant phenology may partly result from temporal niche partitioning. The scale‐specificity and time‐localized nature of community phenology patterns highlights the importance of multiple and shifting drivers of phenology. 

Abstract Understanding the mechanisms that promote the coexistence of hundreds of species over small areas in tropical forest remains a challenge. Many tropical tree species are presumed to be functionally equivalent shade tolerant species but exist on a continuum of performance trade‐offs between survival in shade and the ability to quickly grow in sunlight. These trade‐offs can promote coexistence by reducing fitness differences.Variation in plant functional traits related to resource acquisition is thought to predict variation in performance among species, perhaps explaining community assembly across habitats with gradients in resource availability. Many studies have found low predictive power, however, when linking trait measurements to species demographic rates.Seedlings face different challenges recruiting on the forest floor and may exhibit different traits and/or performance trade‐offs than older individuals face in the eventual adult niche. Seed mass is the typical proxy for seedling success, but species also differ in cotyledon strategy (reserve vs. photosynthetic) or other leaf, stem and root traits. These can cause species with the same average seed mass to have divergent performance in the same habitat.We combined long‐term studies of seedling dynamics with functional trait data collected at a standard life‐history stage in three diverse neotropical forests to ask whether variation in coordinated suites of traits predicts variation among species in demographic performance.Across hundreds of species in Ecuador, Panama and Puerto Rico, we found seedlings displayed correlated suites of leaf, stem, and root traits, which strongly correlated with seed mass and cotyledon strategy. Variation among species in seedling functional traits, seed mass, and cotyledon strategy were strong predictors of trade‐offs in seedling growth and survival. These results underscore the importance of matching the ontogenetic stage of the trait measurement to the stage of demographic dynamics.Our findings highlight the importance of cotyledon strategy in addition to seed mass as a key component of seed and seedling biology in tropical forests because of the contribution of carbon reserves in storage cotyledons to reducing mortality rates and explaining the growth‐survival trade‐off among species.Synthesis: With strikingly consistent patterns across three tropical forests, we find strong evidence for the promise of functional traits to provide mechanistic links between seedling form and demographic performance. 

Summary Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) endeavor to predict how global forests will respond to climate change. This requires simulating which trees, if any, are able to recruit under changing environmental conditions. We present a new recruitment scheme for VDMs in which functional‐type‐specific recruitment rates are sensitive to light, soil moisture and the productivity of reproductive trees.We evaluate the scheme by predicting tree recruitment for four tropical tree functional types under varying meteorology and canopy structure at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We compare predictions to those of a current VDM, quantitative observations and ecological expectations.We find that the scheme improves the magnitude and rank order of recruitment rates among functional types and captures recruitment limitations in response to variable understory light, soil moisture and precipitation regimes.Our results indicate that adopting this framework will improve VDM capacity to predict functional‐type‐specific tree recruitment in response to climate change, thereby improving predictions of future forest distribution, composition and function. 

Abstract Patterns of seed dispersal and seed mortality influence the spatial structure of plant communities and the local coexistence of competing species. Most seeds are dispersed in proximity to the parent tree, where mortality is also expected to be the highest, because of competition with siblings or the attraction of natural enemies. Whereas distance‐dependent mortality in the seed‐to‐seedling transition was often observed in tropical forests, few studies have attempted to estimate the shape of the survival‐distance curves, which determines whether the peak of seedling establishment occurs away from the parent tree (Janzen–Connell pattern) or if the peak attenuates but remains at the parent location (Hubbell pattern). In this study, we inferred the probability density of seed dispersal and two stages of seedling establishment (new recruits, and seedlings 20 cm or taller) with distance for 24 tree species present in the 50‐ha Forest Dynamics Plot of Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Using data from seed traps, seedling survey quadrats, and tree‐census records spanning the 1988–2014 period, we fit hierarchical Bayesian models including parameters for tree fecundity, the shape of the dispersal kernel, and overdispersion of seed or seedling counts. We combined predictions from multiple dispersal kernels to obtain more robust inferences. We find that Hubbell patterns are the most common and Janzen–Connell patterns are very rare among those species; that distance‐dependent mortality may be stronger in the seed stage, in the early recruit stage, or comparable in both; and that species with larger seeds experience less overall mortality and less distance‐dependent mortality. Finally, we describe how this modeling approach could be extended at a community scale to include less abundant species. 

I present the largest survey of seed germination yet for Barro Colorado Island (BCI) and central Panama, based on 1,226 seed collections from 732 species, in 103 families, including trees, shrubs, lianas, vines, herbs, and epiphytes. Most collections were germinated in both sun and shade habitats in growing houses on BCI, simulating tree fall gap and shaded understory conditions. Many ad hoc treatments were also utilized. Data were collected during the field portion (1985–1989) of the BCI Seedling Flora Project. This publication marks the public release of the entire dataset, parts of which have previously been shared with BCI colleagues. I hope that this dataset will provide background information for those needing to produce seedlings from seed for experimental studies and that it will encourage others to incorporate seed germination as an additional plant trait into community analyses.