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Manifestations of global warming in the Arctic include amplifications of temperature increases and a general increase in precipitation. Although topography complicates the pattern of these changes in regions such as Alaska, the amplified warming and general increase in precipitation are already apparent in observational data. Changes in snow cover are complicated by the opposing effects of warming and increased precipitation. In this study, high-resolution (0.25°) outputs from simulations by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5, were analyzed for changes in snow under stabilized global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C. Future changes in snowfall are characterized by a north–south gradient over Alaska and an east–west gradient over Eurasia. Increased snowfall is projected for northern Alaska, northern Canada and Siberia, while milder regions such as southern Alaska and Europe receive less snow in a warmer climate. Overall, the results indicate that the majority of the land area poleward of 55°N will experience a reduction in snow. The approximate threshold of global warming for a statistically significant increase in temperature over 50% of the pan-Arctic land area is 1.5 °C. The corresponding threshold for precipitation is approximately 2.0 °C. The global warming threshold for the loss of high-elevation snow in Alaska is approximately 2.0 °C. The results imply that limiting global warming to the Paris Agreement target is necessary to prevent significant changes in winter climates in Alaska and the Arctic. 

While recent increases in heavy precipitation events in some midlatitude regions are consistent with climate model simulations, evidence of such increases in high latitudes is more tenuous, partly because of data limitations. The present study evaluates historical and future changes in extreme precipitation events in Alaska. Using the ERA5 reanalysis, station data, and output from two downscaled global climate models, we examine precipitation-driven flood events at five diverse locations in Alaska where major historical floods provide benchmarks: Fairbanks (August 1967), Seward (October 1986), Allakaket/Bettles (August 1994), Kivalina (August 2012), and Haines (December 2020). We place these precipitation events into a framework of historical trends and end-of-century (2065–2100) model projections. In all but one of the flood events, the amount of rainfall was the highest on record for the event duration, and precipitation events of this magnitude are generally projected by the models to remain infrequent. All of the cases had subtropical or tropical moisture sources. None of the locations show statistically significant historical trends in the magnitude of extreme precipitation events. However, the frequencies of heavy precipitation events are projected to increase at most of the locations. The frequency of events with 2 year and 5 year historical return intervals is projected to become more frequent, especially in the Interior, and in some cases increase to several times per year. Decreases are projected only for Seward along Alaska’s southern coast. 

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a relevant component of the surface moisture budget and is associated with different drivers. The interrelated drivers cause variations at daily to interannual timescales. This study uses structural equation modeling to diagnose the drivers over an ensemble of 45 high-latitude sites, each of which provides at least several years of in situ measurements, including latent heat fluxes derived from eddy covariance flux towers. The sites are grouped by vegetation type (tundra, forest) and the presence or absence of permafrost to determine how the relative importance of different drivers depends on land surface characteristics. Factor analysis is used to quantify the common variance among the variables, while a path analysis procedure is used to assess the independent contributions of different variables. The variability of ET at forest sites generally shows a stronger dependence on relative humidity, while ET at tundra sites is more temperature-limited than moisture-limited. The path analysis shows that ET has a stronger direct correlation with solar radiation than with any other measured variable. Wind speed has the largest independent contribution to ET variability. The independent contribution of solar radiation is smaller because solar radiation also affects ET through various other drivers. The independent contribution of wind speed is especially apparent at forest wetland sites. For both tundra and forest vegetation, temperature loads higher on the first factor when permafrost is present, implying that ET will become less sensitive to temperature as permafrost thaws. 

Abstract. Plant transpiration links physiological responses ofvegetation to water supply and demand with hydrological, energy, and carbonbudgets at the land–atmosphere interface. However, despite being the mainland evaporative flux at the global scale, transpiration and its response toenvironmental drivers are currently not well constrained by observations.Here we introduce the first global compilation of whole-plant transpirationdata from sap flow measurements (SAPFLUXNET, https://sapfluxnet.creaf.cat/, last access: 8 June 2021).We harmonized and quality-controlled individual datasets supplied bycontributors worldwide in a semi-automatic data workflow implemented in theR programming language. Datasets include sub-daily time series of sap flowand hydrometeorological drivers for one or more growing seasons, as well asmetadata on the stand characteristics, plant attributes, and technicaldetails of the measurements. SAPFLUXNET contains 202 globally distributeddatasets with sap flow time series for 2714 plants, mostly trees, of 174species. SAPFLUXNET has a broad bioclimatic coverage, withwoodland/shrubland and temperate forest biomes especially well represented(80 % of the datasets). The measurements cover a wide variety of standstructural characteristics and plant sizes. The datasets encompass theperiod between 1995 and 2018, with 50 % of the datasets being at least 3 years long. Accompanying radiation and vapour pressure deficit data areavailable for most of the datasets, while on-site soil water content isavailable for 56 % of the datasets. Many datasets contain data for speciesthat make up 90 % or more of the total stand basal area, allowing theestimation of stand transpiration in diverse ecological settings. SAPFLUXNETadds to existing plant trait datasets, ecosystem flux networks, and remotesensing products to help increase our understanding of plant water use,plant responses to drought, and ecohydrological processes. SAPFLUXNET version0.1.5 is freely available from the Zenodo repository (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3971689; Poyatos et al., 2020a). The“sapfluxnetr” R package – designed to access, visualize, and processSAPFLUXNET data – is available from CRAN. 

The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.