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Increasing surface melt has been implicated in the collapse of several Antarctic ice shelves over the last few decades, including the collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf over a period of just a few weeks in 2002. The speed at which an ice shelf disintegrates strongly determines the subsequent loss of grounded ice and sea level rise, but the controls on collapse speed are not well understood. Here we show, using a novel cellular automaton model, that there is an intrinsic speed limit on ice shelf collapse through cascades of interacting melt pond hydrofracture events. Though collapse speed increases with the area of hydrofracture influence, the typical flexural length scales of Antarctic ice shelves ensure that hydrofracture interactions remain localized. We argue that the speed at which Larsen B Ice Shelf collapsed was caused by a season of anomalously high surface meltwater production.

 

Between 1992 and 2017, the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) lost ice equivalent to 7.6 ± 3.9 mm of sea level rise. AIS mass loss is mitigated by ice shelves that provide a buttress by regulating ice flow from tributary glaciers. However, ice‐shelf stability is threatened by meltwater ponding, which may initiate, or reactivate preexisting, fractures, currently poorly understood processes. Here, through ground penetrating radar (GPR) analysis over a buried lake in the grounding zone of an East Antarctic ice shelf, we present the first field observations of a lake drainage event in Antarctica via vertical fractures. Concurrent with the lake drainage event, we observe a decrease in surface elevation and an increase in Sentinel‐1 backscatter. Finally, we suggest that fractures that are initiated or reactivated by lake drainage events in a grounding zone will propagate with ice flow onto the ice shelf itself, where they may have implications for its stability.

 

Abstract Surface meltwater is becoming increasingly widespread on Antarctic ice shelves. It is stored within surface ponds and streams, or within firn pore spaces, which may saturate to form slush. Slush can reduce firn air content, increasing an ice-shelf's vulnerability to break-up. To date, no study has mapped the changing extent of slush across ice shelves. Here, we use Google Earth Engine and Landsat 8 images from six ice shelves to generate training classes using a k -means clustering algorithm, which are used to train a random forest classifier to identify both slush and ponded water. Validation using expert elicitation gives accuracies of 84% and 82% for the ponded water and slush classes, respectively. Errors result from subjectivity in identifying the ponded water/slush boundary, and from inclusion of cloud and shadows. We apply our classifier to the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf for the entire 2013–20 Landsat 8 record. On average, 64% of all surface meltwater is classified as slush and 36% as ponded water. Total meltwater areal extent is greatest between late January and mid-February. This highlights the importance of mapping slush when studying surface meltwater on ice shelves. Future research will apply the classifier across all Antarctic ice shelves. 

Abstract The once-contiguous Ellesmere Ice Shelf, first reported in writing by European explorers in 1876, and now almost completely disintegrated, has rolling, wave-like surface topography, the origin of which we investigate using a viscous buckling instability analysis. We show that rolls can develop during a winter season (~ 100 d) if sea-ice pressure (depth-integrated horizontal stress applied to the seaward front of the Ellesmere Ice Shelf) is sufficiently large (1 MPa m) and ice thickness sufficiently low (1–10 m). Roll wavelength initially depends only on sea-ice pressure, but evolves over time depending on amplitude growth rate. This implies that a thinner ice shelf, with its faster amplitude growth rate, will have a shorter wavelength compared to a thicker ice shelf when sea-ice pressure is equal. A drawback of the viscous buckling mechanism is that roll amplitude decays once sea-ice pressure is removed. However, non-Newtonian ice rheology, where effective viscosity, and thus roll change rate, depends on total applied stress may constrain roll decay rate to be much slower than growth rate and allow roll persistence from year to year. Whether the viscous-buckling mechanism we explore here ultimately can be confirmed as the origin of the Ellesmere Ice Shelf rolls remains for future research. 

Abstract. Surface melting on the Antarctic Ice Sheet has been monitored by satellite microwave radiometry for over 40 years. Despite this long perspective, our understanding of the microwave emission from wet snow is still limited, preventing the full exploitation of these observations to study supraglacial hydrology. Using the Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) model, this study investigatesthe sensitivity of microwave brightness temperature to snow liquid water content at frequencies from 1.4 to 37 GHz. We first determine the snowpack properties for eight selected coastal sites byretrieving profiles of density, grain size and ice layers from microwave observations when the snowpack is dry during wintertime. Second, a series of brightness temperature simulations is run with added water. The results show that (i) a small quantity of liquid water (≈0.5 kg m−2) can be detected, but the actual quantity cannot be retrieved out of the full range of possible water quantities; (ii) the detection of a buried wet layer is possible up to a maximum depth of 1 to 6 m depending on the frequency (6–37 GHz) and on the snow properties (grain size, density) at each site; (iii) surface ponds and water-saturated areas may prevent melt detection, but the current coverage of these waterbodies in the large satellite field of view is presently too small in Antarctica to have noticeable effects; and (iv) at 1.4 GHz, while the simulations are less reliable, we found a weaker sensitivity to liquid water and the maximal depth of detection is relatively shallow (<10 m) compared to the typical radiation penetration depth in dry firn (≈1000 m) at this low frequency. These numerical results pave the way for the development of improved multi-frequency algorithms to detect melt intensity and the depth of liquid water below the surface in the Antarctic snowpack. 

Abstract We develop a two-dimensional, plan-view formulation of ice-shelf flow and viscoelastic ice-shelf flexure. This formulation combines, for the first time, the shallow-shelf approximation for horizontal ice-shelf flow (and shallow-stream approximation for flow on lubricated beds such as where ice rises and rumples form), with the treatment of a thin-plate flexure. We demonstrate the treatment by performing two finite-element simulations: one of the relict pedestalled lake features that exist on some debris-covered ice shelves due to strong heterogeneity in surface ablation, and the other of ice rumpling in the grounding zone of an ice rise. The proposed treatment opens new venues to investigate physical processes that require coupling between the longitudinal deformation and vertical flexure, for instance, the effects of surface melting and supraglacial lakes on ice shelves, interactions with the sea swell, and many others. 

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) rapid mass loss is primarily driven by an increase in meltwater runoff, which highlights the importance of understanding the formation, evolution, and impact of meltwater features on the ice sheet. Buried lakes are meltwater features that contain liquid water and exist under layers of snow, firn, and/or ice. These lakes are invisible in optical imagery, challenging the analysis of their evolution and implication for larger GrIS dynamics and mass change. Here, we present a method that uses a convolutional neural network, a deep learning method, to automatically detect buried lakes across the GrIS. For the years 2018 and 2019 (which represent low- and high-melt years, respectively), we compare total areal extent of both buried and surface lakes across six regions, and we use a regional climate model to explain the spatial and temporal differences. We find that the total buried lake extent after the 2019 melt season is 56 % larger than after the 2018 melt season across the entire ice sheet. Northern Greenland has the largest increase in buried lake extent after the 2019 melt season, which we attribute to late-summer surface melt and high autumn temperatures. We also provide evidence that different processes are responsible for buried lake formation in different regions of the ice sheet. For example, in southwest Greenland, buried lakes often appear on the surface during the previous melt season, indicating that these meltwater features form when surface lakes partially freeze and become insulated as snowfall buries them. Conversely, in southeast Greenland, most buried lakes never appear on the surface, indicating that these features may form due to downward percolation of meltwater and/or subsurface penetration of shortwave radiation. We provide support for these processes via the use of a physics-based snow model. This study provides additional perspective on the potential role of meltwater on GrIS dynamics and mass loss. 

Abstract. In the 2019/2020 austral summer, the surface melt duration andextent on the northern George VI Ice Shelf (GVIIS) was exceptional comparedto the 31 previous summers of distinctly lower melt. This finding is basedon analysis of near-continuous 41-year satellite microwave radiometer andscatterometer data, which are sensitive to meltwater on the ice shelfsurface and in the near-surface snow. Using optical satellite imagery fromLandsat 8 (2013 to 2020) and Sentinel-2 (2017 to 2020), record volumes ofsurface meltwater ponding were also observed on the northern GVIIS in2019/2020, with 23 % of the surface area covered by 0.62 km3 of ponded meltwater on 19 January. These exceptional melt andsurface ponding conditions in 2019/2020 were driven by sustained airtemperatures ≥0 ∘C for anomalously long periods (55 to 90 h)from late November onwards, which limited meltwater refreezing.The sustained warm periods were likely driven by warm, low-speed (≤7.5 m s−1) northwesterly and northeasterly winds and not by foehn windconditions, which were only present for 9 h total in the 2019/2020 meltseason. Increased surface ponding on ice shelves may threaten theirstability through increased potential for hydrofracture initiation; a riskthat may increase due to firn air content depletion in response tonear-surface melting. 

Abstract Diurnal depth cycles of decimeter scale are observed in a supraglacial lake on the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica. We evaluate two possible causes: (1) tidal tilt of the ice shelf in response to the underlying ocean tide, and (2) meltwater input variation. We find the latter to be the most likely explanation of our observations. However, we do not rule out tidal tilt as a source of centimeter scale variations, and point to the possibility that other, larger supraglacial lake systems, particularly those on ice shelves that experience higher amplitude tidal tilts, such as in the Weddell Sea, may have depth cycles driven by ocean tide. The broader significance of diurnal cycles in meltwater depth is that, under circumstances where the ice shelf is thin, tidal-tilt amplitudes are high, and meltwater runoff rates are large, there may be associated flexure stresses that can contribute to ice-shelf fracture and destabilization. For the McMurdo Ice Shelf (~20–50 m thickness, ~ 1 m tidal amplitude and ~10 cm water-depth variations), these stresses amount to several 10's of kPa.