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Here we investigate the role of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by comparing a fully‐coupled large ensemble, a forced‐ocean simulation, and new experiments using a fully‐coupled global climate model where winds above the boundary layer are nudged toward reanalysis. When winds are nudged north of 45°N, agreement with RAPID array observations of AMOC at 26.5°N improves across several metrics. The phasing of interannual variability is well‐captured due to the response of the local Ekman component in both wind‐nudging and forced‐ocean simulations, however the variance remains underestimated. The mean AMOC strength is substantially reduced relative to the fully‐coupled model large ensemble, which is biased high, due to the impact of winds on surface buoyancy fluxes over the subpolar gyre. Nudging winds toward observations also reduces the 1979–2016 trend in AMOC, suggesting that improvement in the representation of the high‐latitude atmosphere is important for projecting long‐term AMOC changes.

 

Arctic surface warming under greenhouse gas forcing peaks in winter and reaches its minimum during summer in both observations and model projections. Many mechanisms have been proposed to explain this seasonal asymmetry, but disentangling these processes remains a challenge in the interpretation of general circulation model (GCM) experiments. To isolate these mechanisms, we use an idealized single-column sea ice model (SCM) that captures the seasonal pattern of Arctic warming. SCM experiments demonstrate that as sea ice melts and exposes open ocean, the accompanying increase in effective surface heat capacity alone can produce the observed pattern of peak warming in early winter (shifting to late winter under increased forcing) by slowing the seasonal heating rate, thus delaying the phase and reducing the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of surface temperature. To investigate warming seasonality in more complex models, we perform GCM experiments that individually isolate sea ice albedo and thermodynamic effects under CO₂forcing. These also show a key role for the effective heat capacity of sea ice in promoting seasonal asymmetry through suppressing summer warming, in addition to precluding summer climatological inversions and a positive summer lapse-rate feedback. Peak winter warming in GCM experiments is further supported by a positive winter lapse-rate feedback, due to cold initial surface temperatures and strong surface-trapped warming that are enabled by the albedo effects of sea ice alone. While many factors contribute to the seasonal pattern of Arctic warming, these results highlight changes in effective surface heat capacity as a central mechanism supporting this seasonality.

Under increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the strongest Arctic warming has occurred during early winter, but the reasons for this seasonal pattern of warming are not well understood. We use experiments in both simple and complex models with certain sea ice processes turned on and off to disentangle potential drivers of seasonality in Arctic warming. When sea ice melts and open ocean is exposed, surface temperatures are slower to reach the warm-season maximum and slower to cool back down below freezing in early winter. We find that this process alone can produce the observed pattern of maximum Arctic warming in early winter, highlighting a fundamental mechanism for the seasonality of Arctic warming.

 

Water mass transformation (WMT) in the North Atlantic plays a key role in driving the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its variability. Here, we analyze subpolar North Atlantic WMT in high‐ and low‐resolution versions of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and investigate whether differences in resolution and climatological WMT impact low‐frequency AMOC variability and the atmospheric response to this variability. We find that high‐resolution simulations reproduce the WMT found in a reanalysis‐forced high‐resolution ocean simulation more accurately than low‐resolution simulations. We also find that the low‐resolution simulations, including one forced with the same atmospheric reanalysis data, have larger biases in surface heat fluxes, sea‐surface temperatures, and salinities compared to the high‐resolution simulations. Despite these major climatological differences, the mechanisms of low‐frequency AMOC variability are similar in the high‐ and low‐resolution versions of CESM1. The Labrador Sea WMT plays a major role in driving AMOC variability, and a similar North Atlantic Oscillation‐like sea‐level pressure pattern leads AMOC changes. However, the high‐resolution simulation shows a pronounced atmospheric response to the AMOC variability not found in the low‐resolution version. The consistent role of Labrador Sea WMT in low‐frequency AMOC variability across high‐ and low‐resolution coupled simulations, including a simulation which accurately reproduces the WMT found in an atmospheric‐reanalysis‐forced high‐resolution ocean simulation, suggests that the mechanisms may be similar in nature.

 

We present idealized simulations to explore how the shape of eastern and western continental boundaries along the Atlantic Ocean influences the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We use a state-of-the art ocean–sea ice model (MOM6 and SIS2) with idealized, zonally symmetric surface forcing and a range of idealized continental configurations with a large, Pacific-like basin and a small, Atlantic-like basin. We perform simulations with five coastline geometries along the Atlantic-like basin that range from coastlines that are straight to coastlines that are shaped like the coasts of the American and African continents. Changing the Atlantic basin coastline shape influences AMOC strength in a manner distinct from simply increasing basin width: widening the basin while maintaining straight coastlines leads to a 10-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10⁶m³s⁻¹) increase in AMOC strength, whereas widening the basin with the geometry of the American and African continents leads to a 6-Sv increase in AMOC strength, despite both cases representing the same average basin-width increase relative to a control case. The structure of AMOC changes are different between these two cases as well: a more realistic basin geometry results in a shoaled AMOC while widening the basin with straight boundaries deepens AMOC. We test the influence of the shape of the both boundaries independently and find that AMOC is more sensitive to the American coastline while the African coastline impacts the abyssal circulation. We also find that AMOC strength and depth scales well with basin-scale meridional density difference, even with different Atlantic basin geometries, illuminating a robust physical link between AMOC and the North Atlantic western boundary density gradient.

 

The lapse rate feedback is the dominant driver of stronger warming in the Arctic than the Antarctic in simulations with increased CO₂. While Antarctic surface elevation has been implicated in promoting a weaker Antarctic lapse rate feedback, the mechanisms in which elevation impacts the lapse rate feedback are still unclear. Here we suggest that weaker Antarctic warming under CO₂forcing stems from shallower, less intense climatological inversions due to limited atmospheric heat transport above the ice sheet elevation and elevation‐induced katabatic winds. In slab ocean model experiments with flattened Antarctic topography, stronger climatological inversions support a stronger lapse rate feedback and annual mean Antarctic warming comparable to the Arctic under CO₂doubling. Unlike the Arctic, seasonality in warming over flat Antarctica is mainly driven by a negative shortwave cloud feedback, which exclusively dampens summer warming, with a smaller contribution from the winter‐enhanced lapse rate feedback.

 

Evaporation adds moisture to the atmosphere, while condensation removes it. Condensation also adds thermal energy to the atmosphere, which must be removed from the atmosphere by radiative cooling. As a result of these two processes, there is a net flow of energy driven by surface evaporation adding energy and radiative cooling removing energy from the atmosphere. Here, we calculate the implied heat transport of this process to find the atmospheric heat transport in balance with the surface evaporation. In modern-day Earth-like climates, evaporation varies strongly between the equator and the poles, while the net radiative cooling in the atmosphere is nearly meridionally uniform, and as a consequence, the heat transport governed by evaporation is similar to the total poleward heat transport of the atmosphere. This analysis is free from cancellations between moist and dry static energy transports, which greatly simplifies the interpretation of atmospheric heat transport and its relationship to the diabatic heating and cooling that governs the atmospheric heat transport. We further demonstrate, using a hierarchy of models, that much of the response of atmospheric heat transport to perturbations, including increasing CO 2 concentrations, can be understood from the distribution of evaporation changes. These findings suggest that meridional gradients in surface evaporation govern atmospheric heat transport and its changes. 

As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to polar warming and its seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed pattern of surface- and winter-dominated Arctic warming that has outpaced both tropical and Antarctic warming in recent decades. For both CMIP5 and CMIP6, CO 2 quadrupling experiments reveal that the lapse-rate and surface albedo feedbacks contribute most to stronger warming in the Arctic than the tropics or Antarctic. The relative strength of the polar surface albedo feedback in comparison to the lapse-rate feedback is sensitive to the choice of radiative kernel, and the albedo feedback contributes most to intermodel spread in polar warming at both poles. By separately calculating moist and dry atmospheric heat transport, we show that increased poleward moisture transport is another important driver of Arctic amplification and the largest contributor to projected Antarctic warming. Seasonal ocean heat storage and winter-amplified temperature feedbacks contribute most to the winter peak in warming in the Arctic and a weaker winter peak in the Antarctic. In comparison with CMIP5, stronger polar warming in CMIP6 results from a larger surface albedo feedback at both poles, combined with less-negative cloud feedbacks in the Arctic and increased poleward moisture transport in the Antarctic. However, normalizing by the global-mean surface warming yields a similar degree of Arctic amplification and only slightly increased Antarctic amplification in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. 

Abstract Ocean heat transport (OHT) plays a key role in climate and its variability. Here, we identify modes of low-frequency North Atlantic OHT variability by applying a low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to output from three global climate models. The first low-frequency component (LFC), computed using this method, is an index of OHT variability that maximizes the ratio of low-frequency variance (occurring at decadal and longer timescales) to total variance. Lead-lag regressions of atmospheric and ocean variables onto the LFC timeseries illuminate the dominant mechanisms controlling low-frequency OHT variability. Anomalous northwesterly winds from eastern North America over the North Atlantic act to increase upper ocean density in the Labrador Sea region, enhancing deep convection, which later increases OHT via changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The strengthened AMOC carries warm, salty water into the subpolar gyre, reducing deep convection and weakening AMOC and OHT. This mechanism, where changes in AMOC and OHT are driven primarily by changes in Labrador Sea deep convection, holds not only in models where the climatological (i.e., time-mean) deep convection is concentrated in the Labrador Sea, but also in models where the climatological deep convection is concentrated in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas or the Irminger and Iceland Basins. These results suggest that despite recent observational evidence suggesting that the Labrador Sea plays a minor role in driving the climatological AMOC, the Labrador Sea may still play an important role in driving low-frequency variability in AMOC and OHT. 

Abstract Motivated by the hemispheric asymmetry of land distribution on Earth, we explore the climate of Northland, a highly idealized planet with a Northern Hemisphere continent and a Southern Hemisphere ocean. The climate of Northland can be separated into four distinct regions: the Southern Hemisphere ocean, the seasonally wet tropics, the midlatitude desert, and the Great Northern Swamp. We evaluate how modifying land surface properties on Northland drives changes in temperatures, precipitation patterns, the global energy budget, and atmospheric dynamics. We observe a surprising response to changes in land surface evaporation, where suppressing terrestrial evaporation in Northland cools both land and ocean. In previous studies, suppressing terrestrial evaporation has been found to lead to local warming by reducing latent cooling of the land surface. However, reduced evaporation can also decrease atmospheric water vapor, reducing the strength of the greenhouse effect and leading to large-scale cooling. We use a set of idealized climate model simulations to show that suppressing terrestrial evaporation over Northern Hemisphere continents of varying size can lead to either warming or cooling of the land surface, depending on which of these competing effects dominates. We find that a combination of total land area and contiguous continent size controls the balance between local warming from reduced latent heat flux and large-scale cooling from reduced atmospheric water vapor. Finally, we demonstrate how terrestrial heat capacity, albedo, and evaporation all modulate the location of the ITCZ both over the continent and over the ocean.