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Abstract The North Brazil Current (NBC) is considered a bottleneck in the South Atlantic, responsible for carrying upper‐ocean waters into the North Atlantic. This work explores the surface pathways connecting the NBC and 26°N in the North Atlantic. To identify said pathways, we use observational trajectories from surface drifters in conjunction with transition path theory applied on a Markov chain. The pathways are computed as ensembles of paths transitioning directly between the NBC and 26°N. Our results suggest that there are two dominant surface pathways: The first is the traditional pathway through the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, carrying waters to the Florida Current, while the second is a direct route east of the Caribbean supplying waters to the Antilles Current and basin interior. The latter is composed of multiple pathways that are collectively more probable than the traditional pathway. 

Abstract In this note, we apply transition path theory (TPT) from Markov chains to shed light on the problem of Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) equatorward export. A recent analysis of observed trajectories of submerged floats demanded revision of the traditional abyssal circulation theory, which postulates that ISOW should steadily flow along a deep boundary current (DBC) around the subpolar North Atlantic prior to exiting it. The TPT analyses carried out here allow attention to be focused on the portions of flow from the origin of ISOW to the region where ISOW exits the subpolar North Atlantic and suggest that insufficient sampling may be biasing the aforementioned demand. The analyses, appropriately adapted to represent a continuous input of ISOW, are carried out on three time-homogeneous Markov chains modeling the ISOW flow. One is constructed using a high number of simulated trajectories homogeneously covering the flow domain. The other two use much fewer trajectories which heterogeneously cover the domain. The trajectories in the latter two chains are observed trajectories or simulated trajectories subsampled at the observed frequency. While the densely sampled chain supports a well-defined DBC, whether this is a peculiarity of the simulation considered or not, the more heterogeneously sampled chains do not, irrespective of the nature of the trajectories used, i.e., observed or simulated. Studying the sampling sensitivity of the Markov chains, we can give recommendations for enlarging the existing float dataset to improve the significance of conclusions about long-time-asymptotic aspects of the ISOW circulation. 

Abstract Recently introduced in oceanography to interpret the near surface circulation, Transition Path Theory ( TPT ) is a methodology that rigorously characterizes ensembles of trajectory pieces flowing out from a source last and into a target next, i.e., those that most productively contribute to transport. Here we use TPT to frame, in a statistically more robust fashion than earlier analysis, equatorward routes of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the subpolar North Atlantic. TPT is applied on all available RAFOS and Argo floats in the area by means of a discretization of the Lagrangian dynamics described by their trajectories. By considering floats at different depths, we investigate transition paths of NADW in its upper (UNADW) and lower (LNADW) layers. We find that the majority of UNADW transition paths sourced in the Labrador and southwestern Irminger Seas reach the western side of a target arranged zonally along the southern edge of the subpolar North Atlantic domain visited by the floats. This is accomplished in the form of a well-organized deep boundary current (DBC). LNADW transition paths sourced west of the Reykjanes Ridge reveal a similar pattern, while those sourced east of the ridge are found to hit the western side of the target via a DBC and also several other places along it in a less organized fashion, indicating southward flow along the eastern and western flanks of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Naked-eye inspection of trajectories suggest generally much more diffusive equatorward NADW routes. A source-independent dynamical decomposition of the flow domain into analogous backward-time basins of attraction, beyond the reach of direct inspection of trajectories, reveals a much wider influence of the western side of the target for UNADW than for LNADW. For UNADW, the average expected duration of the pathways from the Labrador and Irminger Seas was found to be of 2 to 3 years. For LNADW, the duration was found to be influenced by the Reykjanes Ridge, being as long as 8 years from the western side of the ridge and of about 3 years on average from its eastern side.