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Abstract The dynamics shaping the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) response to present and future climate change remain unclear, partly due to limited paleo‐ENSO records spanning past abrupt climate events. Here, we measure Mg/Ca ratios on individual foraminifera to reconstruct east Pacific subsurface temperature variability, a proxy for ENSO variability, across the last 25,000 years, including the millennial‐scale events of the last deglaciation. Combining these data with proxy system model output reveals divergent ENSO responses to Northern Hemisphere stadials: enhanced variability during Heinrich Stadial 1 (H1) and reduced variability during the Younger Dryas (YD), relative to the Holocene. H1 ENSO likely intensified through meltwater‐induced changes to ocean/atmospheric circulation, a response observed in models, but the lack of a similar response during the YD challenges model simulations. We suggest the tropical Pacific mean state during H1 primed ENSO for larger fluctuations under meltwater forcing, whereas the YD mean state likely buffered against it. 

Abstract In this work, we utilize a transect of core top, mid- to late Holocene, sediments from the Eastern Siberian Sea to the central Arctic Ocean, spanning gradients in upper-ocean water column properties, to examine regional planktic foraminiferal species abundances and geochemistry. We present species- and morphotype-specific foraminiferal assemblages at these sites and stable isotope analyses of neogloboquadrinids. We find little variation in planktic species populations, and only small variations in N. pachyderma morphotype distributions, between sites. Spatial averages of N. pachyderma morphotype and N. incompta δ18O values show no significant differences, suggesting a similar calcification depth for all morphotypes of N. pachyderma and N. incompta across our sites, which we estimate to be between ∼ 50–150 m. Values of δ18O of a group of unencrusted specimens delineate a shallower calcification habitat. Neogloboquadrina pachyderma-2 Mg/Ca values yield temperatures outside the range of observations using available calibration equations, pointing toward the need for more Arctic-specific Mg/Ca-temperature calibrations. 

Abstract Particle mixing by benthic fauna beneath the sediment‐water interface (or bioturbation) fundamentally challenges the proxy based retrieval of past climatic conditions from deep‐sea sediment cores. Previous efforts targeted the impacts of bioturbation on the nature of paleoceanographic changes gleaned from the proxy record, whereas impacts on seasonal and/or interannual variability reconstructions have received less attention. We present TurbIFA (Tracking uncertainty of reworking & bioturbation on IFA), a software that adapts and combines existing algorithms to quantitatively estimate the impact of sediment reworking and other uncertainties and assess significance of ocean and climate variability reconstructions based on individual foraminiferal analyses (IFA). Building upon previous idealized investigations of bioturbation using hydroclimate‐sediment simulations, TurbIFA advances the IFA proxy system modeling such that users may directly assess the sensitivity of their data to various local parameters related to shell reworking across the global ocean. Using the output of state‐of‐the‐art coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models, TurbIFA simulates planktic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O or Mg/Ca‐temperature signal carriers and evaluates uncertainties in the sample size, analytical protocols along with as those arising from bioturbation. Application of TurbIFA to synthetic and existing data sets indicates that the significance of IFA‐based reconstructions can be assessed once the impacts of sediment accumulation rates, sediment mixed layer depths, length of time integrated by the chosen IFA sampling interval, and changes in the amplitude of climate variability (i.e., the targeted environmental signal) are comprehensively evaluated. We contend that TurbIFA can aid quantitative assessments of past seasonal and interannual variability gleaned from the paleoceanographic record. 

The Indian Ocean exhibits multiple modes of interannual climate variability, whose future behaviour is uncertain. Recent analysis of glacial climates has uncovered an additional El Niño-like equatorial mode in the Indian Ocean, which could also emerge in future warm states. Here we explore changes in the tropical Indian Ocean simulated by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). These simulations are performed by an ensemble of models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 and over four coordinated experiments: three past periods – the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years ago), the last interglacial (127 000 years ago) – and an idealized forcing scenario to examine the impact of greenhouse forcing. The two interglacial experiments are used to characterize the role of orbital variations in the seasonal cycle, whilst the other pair focus on responses to large changes in global temperature. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) is damped in both the mid-Holocene and last interglacial, with the amount related to the damping of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Pacific. No coherent changes in the strength of the IOBM are seen with global temperature changes; neither are changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) nor the Niño-like mode. Under orbital forcing, the IOD robustly weakens during the mid-Holocene experiment, with only minor reductions in amplitude during the last interglacial. Orbital changes do impact the SST pattern of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with the cold pole reaching up to the Equator and extending along it. Induced changes in the regional seasonality are hypothesized to be an important control on changes in the Indian Ocean variability. 

Presently, the Indian Ocean (IO) resides in a climate state that prevents strong year-to-year climate variations. This may change under greenhouse warming, but the mechanisms remain uncertain, thus limiting our ability to predict future changes in climate extremes. Using climate model simulations, we uncover the emergence of a mode of climate variability capable of generating unprecedented sea surface temperature and rainfall fluctuations across the IO. This mode, which is inhibited under present-day conditions, becomes active in climate states with a shallow thermocline and vigorous upwelling, consistent with the predictions of continued greenhouse warming. These predictions are supported by modeling and proxy evidence of an active mode during glacial intervals that favored such a state. Because of its impact on hydrological variability, the emergence of such a mode would become a first-order source of climate-related risks for the densely populated IO rim.