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Abstract Observation‐based estimates of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and meridional heat transport (MHT) are necessary to better understand their evolution in the coming years. The RAPID‐MOCHA‐WBTS array at 26°N is the only trans‐Atlantic observing system to provide 20+ years of continuous measurements of the AMOC and MHT. While the design of the array has continuously evolved as our understanding of the AMOC has advanced, and as new technologies have become available, a new goal is to design a lower‐cost and more sustainable observing system to continue AMOC estimations with high accuracy. Using the RAPID array data and ocean reanalyzes, we evaluate the error in the AMOC estimate due to the choice of data included in its calculation. We find that the trend and variability of the volume transport in the upper 3,000‐m of the water column are not captured with sufficient accuracy by synoptic hydrographic data or ocean reanalyzes. However, moorings in the deep ocean interior along the eastern boundary and the Mid‐Atlantic ridge can be replaced by hydrographic data from repeat trans‐Atlantic hydrographic sections to reliably estimate the AMOC trend and variability. Experiments simulating the observing system in a high‐resolution ocean model further show that the additional error in the long‐term AMOC estimate induced by the substitution of mooring measurements below 3,000‐m depth at these locations is small (0.30 Sv) as compared to the AMOC uncertainty. 

Abstract The system of oceanic flows constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moves heat and other properties to the subpolar North Atlantic, controlling regional climate, weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Climate models suggest a potential AMOC slowdown towards the end of this century due to anthropogenic forcing, accelerating coastal sea level rise along the western boundary and dramatically increasing flood risk. While direct observations of the AMOC are still too short to infer long-term trends, we show here that the AMOC-induced changes in gyre-scale heat content, superimposed on the global mean sea level rise, are already influencing the frequency of floods along the United States southeastern seaboard. We find that ocean heat convergence, being the primary driver for interannual sea level changes in the subtropical North Atlantic, has led to an exceptional gyre-scale warming and associated dynamic sea level rise since 2010, accounting for 30-50% of flood days in 2015-2020. 

Continuous measurements of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and meridional ocean heat transport at 26.5° N began in April 2004 and are currently available through December 2020. Approximately 90% of the total meridional heat transport (MHT) at 26.5° N is carried by the zonally averaged overturning circulation, and an even larger fraction of the heat transport variability (approx. 95%) is explained by the variability of the zonally averaged overturning. A physically based separation of the heat transport into large-scale AMOC, gyre and shallow wind-driven overturning components remains challenging and requires new investigations and approaches. We review the major interannual changes in the AMOC and MHT that have occurred over the nearly two decades of available observations and their documented impacts on North Atlantic heat content. Changes in the flow-weighted temperature of the Florida Current (Gulf Stream) over the past two decades are now taken into account in the estimates of MHT, and have led to an increased heat transport relative to the AMOC strength in recent years. Estimates of the MHT at 26.5° N from coupled models and various surface flux datasets still tend to show low biases relative to the observations, but indirect estimates based on residual methods (top of atmosphere net radiative flux minus atmospheric energy divergence) have shown recent promise in reproducing the heat transport and its interannual variability.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges’. 

Abstract The dynamics of the deep recirculation offshore of the deep western boundary current (DWBC) between 15° and 30°N within the upper North Atlantic Deep Water layer (1000 ≤ z ≤ 3000 m) is investigated with two different eddy-resolving numerical simulations. Despite some differences in the recirculation cells, our assessment of the modeled deep isopycnal circulation patterns (36.77 ≤ σ 2 ≤ 37.06 kg m −3 ) shows that both simulations predict the DWBC flowing southward along the continental slope, while the so-called Abaco Gyre and two additional cyclonic cells recirculate waters northward in the interior. These cells are a few degrees wide, located along the DWBC path, and characterized by potential vorticity (PV) changes occurring along their mean streamlines. The analysis of the mean PV budget reveals that these changes result from the action of eddy forcing that tends to erode the PV horizontal gradients. The lack of a major upper-ocean boundary current within the study region, and the fact that the strongest eddy forcing is constrained within a few hundreds of kilometers of the western boundary, suggest that the DWBC is the primary source of eddy forcing. Finally, the eddies responsible for forcing the recirculation have dominant time scales between 100 and 300 days, which correspond to the primary observed variability scales of the DWBC transport at 26.5°N. 

Abstract The mean North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW, 1000 < z < 5000 m) circulation and deep western boundary current (DWBC) variability offshore of Abaco, Bahamas, at 26.5°N are investigated from nearly two decades of velocity and hydrographic observations, and outputs from a 30-yr-long eddy-resolving global simulation. Observations at 26.5°N and Argo-derived geostrophic velocities show the presence of a mean Abaco Gyre spanning the NADW layer, consisting of a closed cyclonic circulation between approximately 24° and 30°N and 72° and 77°W. The southward-flowing portion of this gyre (the DWBC) is constrained to within ~150 km of the western boundary with a mean transport of ~30 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10 6 m 3 s −1 ). Offshore of the DWBC, the data show a consistent northward recirculation with net transports varying from 6.5 to 16 Sv. Current meter records spanning 2008–17 supported by the numerical simulation indicate that the DWBC transport variability is dominated by two distinct types of fluctuations: 1) periods of 250–280 days that occur regularly throughout the time series and 2) energetic oscillations with periods between 400 and 700 days that occur sporadically every 5–6 years and force the DWBC to meander far offshore for several months. The shorter-period variations are related to DWBC meandering caused by eddies propagating southward along the continental slope at 24°–30°N, while the longer-period oscillations appear to be related to large anticyclonic eddies that slowly propagate northwestward counter to the DWBC flow between ~20° and 26.5°N. Observational and theoretical evidence suggest that these two types of variability might be generated, respectively, by DWBC instability processes and Rossby waves reflecting from the western boundary.