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Microorganisms drive many aspects of organic carbon cycling in thawing permafrost soils, but the compositional trajectory of the post-thaw microbiome and its metabolic activity remain uncertain, which limits our ability to predict permafrost–climate feedbacks in a warming world. Using quantitative metabarcoding and metagenomic sequencing, we determined relative and absolute changes in microbiome composition and functional gene abundance during thaw incubations of wet sedge tundra collected from northern Alaska, USA. Organic soils from the tundra active-layer (0–50 cm), transition-zone (50–70 cm), and permafrost (70+ cm) depths were incubated under reducing conditions at 4 °C for 30 days to mimic an extended thaw duration. Following extended thaw, we found that iron (Fe)-cycling Gammaproteobacteria, specifically the heterotrophic Fe(III)-reducing Rhodoferax sp. and chemoautotrophic Fe(II)-oxidizing Gallionella sp., increased by 3–5 orders of magnitude in absolute abundance within the transition-zone and permafrost microbiomes, accounting for 65% of community abundance. We also found that the abundance of genes for Fe(III) reduction (e.g., MtrE) and Fe(II) oxidation (e.g., Cyc1) increased concurrently with genes for benzoate degradation and pyruvate metabolism, in which pyruvate is used to generate acetate that can be oxidized, along with benzoate, to CO2 when coupled with Fe(III) reduction. Gene abundance for CH4 metabolism decreased following extended thaw, suggesting dissimilatory Fe(III) reduction suppresses acetoclastic methanogenesis under reducing conditions. Our genomic evidence indicates that microbial carbon degradation is dominated by iron redox metabolism via an increase in gene abundance associated with Fe(III) reduction and Fe(II) oxidation during initial permafrost thaw, likely increasing microbial respiration while suppressing methanogenesis in wet sedge tundra.

 

Whole‐ecosystem interactions and feedbacks constrain ecosystem responses to environmental change. The effects of these constraints on responses to climate trends and extreme weather events have been well studied. Here we examine how these constraints respond to changes in day‐to‐day weather variability without changing the long‐term mean weather. Although environmental variability is recognized as a critical factor affecting ecological function, the effects of climate change on day‐to‐day weather variability and the resultant impacts on ecosystem function are still poorly understood. Changes in weather variability can alter the mean rates of individual ecological processes because many processes respond non‐linearly to environmental drivers. We assessed how these individual‐process responses to changes in day‐to‐day weather variability interact with one another at an ecosystem level. We examine responses of arctic tundra to changes in weather variability using stochastic simulations of daily temperature, precipitation, and light to drive a biogeochemical model. Changes in weather variability altered ecosystem carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus stocks and cycling rates in our model. However, responses of some processes (e.g., respiration) were inconsistent with expectations because ecosystem feedbacks can moderate, or even reverse, direct process responses to weather variability. More weather variability led to greater carbon losses from land to atmosphere; less variability led to higher carbon sequestration on land. The magnitude of modeled ecosystem response to weather variability was comparable to that predicted for the effects of climate mean trends by the end of the century.

 

Accounting for temporal changes in carbon dioxide (CO₂) effluxes from freshwaters remains a challenge for global and regional carbon budgets. Here, we synthesize 171 site-months of flux measurements of CO₂based on the eddy covariance method from 13 lakes and reservoirs in the Northern Hemisphere, and quantify dynamics at multiple temporal scales. We found pronounced sub-annual variability in CO₂flux at all sites. By accounting for diel variation, only 11% of site-months were net daily sinks of CO₂. Annual CO₂emissions had an average of 25% (range 3%–58%) interannual variation. Similar to studies on streams, nighttime emissions regularly exceeded daytime emissions. Biophysical regulations of CO₂flux variability were delineated through mutual information analysis. Sample analysis of CO₂fluxes indicate the importance of continuous measurements. Better characterization of short- and long-term variability is necessary to understand and improve detection of temporal changes of CO₂fluxes in response to natural and anthropogenic drivers. Our results indicate that existing global lake carbon budgets relying primarily on daytime measurements yield underestimates of net emissions.

 

Climate warming has increased permafrost thaw in arctic tundra and extended the duration of annual thaw (number of thaw days in summer) along soil profiles. Predicting the microbial response to permafrost thaw depends largely on knowing how increased thaw duration affects the composition of the soil microbiome. Here, we determined soil microbiome composition from the annually thawed surface active layer down through permafrost from two tundra types at each of three sites on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. Variations in soil microbial taxa were found between sites up to ~90 km apart, between tundra types, and between soil depths. Microbiome differences at a site were greatest across transitions from thawed to permafrost depths. Results from correlation analysis based on multi‐decadal thaw surveys show that differences in thaw duration by depth were significantly, positively correlated with the abundance of dominant taxa in the active layer and negatively correlated with dominant taxa in the permafrost. Microbiome composition within the transition zone was statistically similar to that in the permafrost, indicating that recent decades of intermittent thaw have not yet induced a shift from permafrost to active‐layer microbes. We suggest that thaw duration rather than thaw frequency has a greater impact on the composition of microbial taxa within arctic soils.

 

Warming and thawing in the Arctic are promoting biogeochemical processing and hydrologic transport in carbon‐rich permafrost and soils that transfer carbon to surface waters or the atmosphere. Hydrologic and biogeochemical impacts of thawing are challenging to predict with sparse information on arctic soil hydraulic and thermal properties. We developed empirical and statistical models of soil properties for three main strata in the shallow, seasonally thawed soils above permafrost in a study area of ~7,500 km²in Alaska. The models show that soil vertical stratification and hydraulic properties are predictable based on vegetation cover and slope. We also show that the distinct hydraulic and thermal properties of each soil stratum can be predicted solely from bulk density. These findings fill the gap for a sparsely mapped region of the Arctic and enable regional interpolation of soil properties critical for determining future hydrologic responses and the fate of carbon in thawing permafrost.

 

Lateral inflows control the spatial distribution of river discharge, and understanding their patterns is fundamental for accurately modelling instream flows and travel time distributions necessary for evaluating impacts of climate change on aquatic habitat suitability, river energy budgets, and fate of dissolved organic carbon. Yet, little is known about the spatial distribution of lateral inflows in Arctic rivers given the lack of gauging stations. With a network of stream gauging and meteorological stations within the Kuparuk River watershed in northern Alaska, we estimated precipitation and lateral inflows for nine subcatchments from 1 July to 4 August,2013, 2014, and 2015. Total precipitation, lateral inflows, runoff ratios (area‐normalized lateral inflow divided by precipitation), percent contribution to total basin discharge, and lateral inflow per river kilometre were estimated for each watershed for relatively dry, moderate, or wet summers. The results show substantial variability between years and subcatchments. Total basin lateral inflow depths ranged 24‐fold in response to a threefold change in rainfall between dry and wet years, whereas within‐basin lateral inflows varied fivefold from the coastal plain to the foothills. General spatial trends in lateral inflows were consistent with previous studies and mean summer precipitation patterns. However, the spatially distributed nature of these estimates revealed that reaches in the vicinity of a spring‐fed surficial ice feature do not follow general spatial trends and that the coastal plain, which is typically considered to produce minimal runoff, showed potential to contribute to total river discharge. These findings are used to provide a spatially distributed understanding of lateral inflows and identify watershed characteristics that influence hydrologic responses.

 

The external drivers and internal controls of groundwater flow in the thawed “active layer” above permafrost are poorly constrained because they are dynamic and spatially variable. Understanding these controls is critical because groundwater can supply solutes such as dissolved organic matter to surface water bodies. We calculated steady‐state three‐dimensional suprapermafrost groundwater flow through the active layer using measurements of aquifer geometry, saturated thickness, and hydraulic properties collected from two major landscape types over time within a first‐order Arctic watershed. The depth position and thickness of the saturated zone is the dominant control of groundwater flow variability between sites and during different times of year. The effect of water table depth on groundwater flow dwarfs the effect of thaw depth. In landscapes with low land‐surface slopes (2–4%), a combination of higher water tables and thicker, permeable peat deposits cause relatively constant groundwater flows between the early and late thawed seasons. Landscapes with larger land‐surface slopes (4–10%) have both deeper water tables and thinner peat deposits; here the commonly observed permeability decrease with depth is more pronounced than in flatter areas, and groundwater flows decrease significantly between early and late summer as the water table drops. Groundwater flows are also affected by microtopographic features that retain groundwater that could otherwise be released as the active layer deepens. The dominant sources of groundwater, and thus dissolved organic matter, are likely wet, flatter regions with thick organic layers. This finding informs fluid flow and solute transport dynamics for the present and future Arctic.

 

To understand patterns in CO2 partial pressure (PCO2) over time in wetlands’ surface water and porewater, we examined the relationship between PCO2 and land–atmosphere flux of CO2 at the ecosystem scale at 22 Northern Hemisphere wetland sites synthesized through an open call. Sites spanned 6 major wetland types (tidal, alpine, fen, bog, marsh, and prairie pothole/karst), 7 Köppen climates, and 16 different years. Ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross primary production (GPP), components of vertical CO2 flux, were compared to PCO2, a component of lateral CO2 flux, to determine if photosynthetic rates and soil respiration consistently influence wetland surface and porewater CO2 concentrations across wetlands. Similar to drivers of primary productivity at the ecosystem scale, PCO2 was strongly positively correlated with air temperature (Tair) at most sites. Monthly average PCO2 tended to peak towards the middle of the year and was more strongly related to Reco than GPP. Our results suggest Reco may be related to biologically driven PCO2 in wetlands, but the relationship is site-specific and could be an artifact of differently timed seasonal cycles or other factors. Higher levels of discharge do not consistently alter the relationship between Reco and temperature normalized PCO2. This work synthesizes relevant data and identifies key knowledge gaps in drivers of wetland respiration. 

Methane and carbon dioxide effluxes from aquatic systems in the Arctic will affect and likely amplify global change. As permafrost thaws in a warming world, more dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and greenhouse gases are produced and move from soils to surface waters where the DOC can be oxidized to CO 2 and also released to the atmosphere. Our main study objective is to measure the release of carbon to the atmosphere via effluxes of methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from Toolik Lake, a deep, dimictic, low-arctic lake in northern Alaska. By combining direct eddy covariance flux measurements with continuous gas pressure measurements in the lake surface waters, we quantified the k 600 piston velocity that controls gas flux across the air–water interface. Our measured k values for CH 4 and CO 2 were substantially above predictions from several models at low to moderate wind speeds, and only converged on model predictions at the highest wind speeds. We attribute this higher flux at low wind speeds to effects on water-side turbulence resulting from how the surrounding tundra vegetation and topography increase atmospheric turbulence considerably in this lake, above the level observed over large ocean surfaces. We combine this process-level understanding of gas exchange with the trends of a climate-relevant long-term (30 + years) meteorological data set at Toolik Lake to examine short-term variations (2015 ice-free season) and interannual variability (2010–2015 ice-free seasons) of CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes. We argue that the biological processing of DOC substrate that becomes available for decomposition as the tundra soil warms is important for understanding future trends in aquatic gas fluxes, whereas the variability and long-term trends of the physical and meteorological variables primarily affect the timing of when higher or lower than average fluxes are observed. We see no evidence suggesting that a tipping point will be reached soon to change the status of the aquatic system from gas source to sink. We estimate that changes in CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes will be constrained with a range of +30% and −10% of their current values over the next 30 years. 

Soil anoxia is common in the annually thawed surface (‘active’) layer of permafrost soils, particularly when soils are saturated, and supports anaerobic microbial metabolism and methane (CH4) production. Rainfall contributes to soil saturation, but can also introduce oxygen, causing soil oxidation and altering anoxic conditions. We simulated a rainfall event in soil mesocosms from two dominant tundra types, tussock tundra and wet sedge tundra, to test the impacts of rainfall‐induced soil oxidation on microbial communities and their metabolic capacity for anaerobic CH4 production and aerobic respiration following soil oxidation. In both types, rainfall increased total soil O2 concentration, but in tussock tundra there was a 2.5‐fold greater increase in soil O2 compared to wet sedge tundra due to differences in soil drainage. Metagenomic and metatranscriptomic analyses found divergent microbial responses to rainfall between tundra types. Active microbial taxa in the tussock tundra community, including bacteria and fungi, responded to rainfall with a decline in gene expression for anaerobic metabolism and a concurrent increase in gene expression for cellular growth. In contrast, the wet sedge tundra community showed no significant changes in microbial gene expression from anaerobic metabolism, fermentation, or methanogenesis following rainfall, despite an initial increase in soil O2 concentration. These results suggest that rainfall induces soil oxidation and enhances aerobic microbial respiration in tussock tundra communities but may not accumulate or remain in wet sedge tundra soils long enough to induce a community‐wide shift from anaerobic metabolism. Thus, rainfall may serve only to maintain saturated soil conditions that promote CH4 production in low‐lying wet sedge tundra soils across the Arctic.