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The uneven spread of COVID-19 has resulted in disparate experiences for marginalized populations in urban centers. Using computational models, we examine the effects of local cohesion on COVID-19 spread in social contact networks for the city of San Francisco, finding that more early COVID-19 infections occur in areas with strong local cohesion. This spatially correlated process tends to affect Black and Hispanic communities more than their non-Hispanic White counterparts. Local social cohesion thus acts as a potential source of hidden risk for COVID-19 infection. 

Signal maps are essential for the planning and operation of cellular networks. However, the measurements needed to create such maps are expensive, often biased, not always reflecting the performance metrics of interest, and posing privacy risks. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for predicting cellular performance maps from limited available measurements. Our framework builds on a state-of-the-art random-forest predictor, or any other base predictor. We propose and combine three mechanisms that deal with the fact that not all measurements are equally important for a particular prediction task. First, we design quality-of-service functions (Q), including signal strength (RSRP) but also other metrics of interest to operators, such as number of bars, coverage (improving recall by 76%-92%) and call drop probability (reducing error by as much as 32%). By implicitly altering the loss function employed in learning, quality functions can also improve prediction for RSRP itself where it matters (e.g., MSE reduction up to 27% in the low signal strength regime, where high accuracy is critical). Second, we introduce weight functions (W) to specify the relative importance of prediction at different locations and other parts of the feature space. We propose re-weighting based on importance sampling to obtain unbiased estimators when the sampling and target distributions are different. This yields improvements up to 20% for targets based on spatially uniform loss or losses based on user population density. Third, we apply the Data Shapley framework for the first time in this context: to assign values (ϕ) to individual measurement points, which capture the importance of their contribution to the prediction task. This can improve prediction (e.g., from 64% to 94% in recall for coverage loss) by removing points with negative values and storing only the remaining data points (i.e., as low as 30%), which also has the side-benefit of helping privacy. We evaluate our methods and demonstrate significant improvement in prediction performance, using several real-world datasets. 

Coarse-graining is a powerful tool for extending the reach of dynamic models of proteins and other biological macromolecules. Topological coarse-graining, in which biomolecules or sets thereof are represented via graph structures, is a particularly useful way of obtaining highly compressed representations of molecular structures, and simulations operating via such representations can achieve substantial computational savings. A drawback of coarse-graining, however, is the loss of atomistic detail—an effect that is especially acute for topological representations such as protein structure networks (PSNs). Here, we introduce an approach based on a combination of machine learning and physically-guided refinement for inferring atomic coordinates from PSNs. This “neural upscaling” procedure exploits the constraints implied by PSNs on possible configurations, as well as differences in the likelihood of observing different configurations with the same PSN. Using a 1 μs atomistic molecular dynamics trajectory of Aβ1–40, we show that neural upscaling is able to effectively recapitulate detailed structural information for intrinsically disordered proteins, being particularly successful in recovering features such as transient secondary structure. These results suggest that scalable network-based models for protein structure and dynamics may be used in settings where atomistic detail is desired, with upscaling employed to impute atomic coordinates from PSNs. 

Causal profiling is a novel and powerful profiling technique that quantifies the potential impact of optimizing a code segment on the program runtime. A key application of causal profiling is to analyze what-if scenarios which typically require a large number of experiments. Besides, the execution of a program highly depends on the underlying machine resources, e.g., CPU, network, storage, so profiling results on one device does not translate directly to another. This is a major bottleneck in our ability to perform scalable performance analysis and greatly limits cross-platform software development. In this paper, we address the above challenges by leveraging a unique property of causal profiling: only relative performance of different resources affects the result of causal profiling, not their absolute performance. We first analytically model and prove causal profiling, the missing piece in the seminal paper. Then, we assert the necessary condition to achieve virtual causal profiling on a secondary device. Building upon the theory, we design VCoz, a virtual causal profiler that enables profiling applications on target devices using measurements on the host device. We implement a prototype of VCoz by tuning multiple hardware components to preserve the relative execution speeds of code segments. Our experiments on benchmarks that stress different system resources demonstrate that VCoz can generate causal profiling reports of Nexus 6P (an ARM-based device) on a host MacBook (x86 architecture) with less than 16% variance. 

Monetizing websites and web apps through online advertising is widespread in the web ecosystem, creating a billion-dollar market. This has led to the emergence of a vast network of tertiary ad providers and ad syndication to facilitate this growing market. Nowadays, the online advertising ecosystem forces publishers to integrate ads from these third-party domains. On the one hand, this raises several privacy and security concerns that are actively being studied in recent years. On the other hand, the ability of today's browsers to load dynamic web pages with complex animations and Javascript has also transformed online advertising. This can have a significant impact on webpage performance. The latter is a critical metric for optimization since it ultimately impacts user satisfaction. Unfortunately, there are limited literature studies on understanding the performance impacts of online advertising which we argue is as important as privacy and security. In this paper, we apply an in-depth and first-of-a-kind performance evaluation of web ads. Unlike prior efforts that rely primarily on adblockers, we perform a fine-grained analysis on the web browser's page loading process to demystify the performance cost of web ads. We aim to characterize the cost by every component of an ad, so the publisher, ad syndicate, and advertiser can improve the ad's performance with detailed guidance. For this purpose, we develop a tool, adPerf, for the Chrome browser that classifies page loading workloads into ad-related and main-content at the granularity of browser activities. Our evaluations show that online advertising entails more than 15% of browser page loading workload and approximately 88% of that is spent on JavaScript. On smartphones, this additional cost of ads is 7% lower since mobile pages include fewer and well-optimized ads. We also track the sources and delivery chain of web ads and analyze performance considering the origin of the ad contents. We observe that 2 of the well-known third-party ad domains contribute to 35% of the ads performance cost and surprisingly, top news websites implicitly include unknown third-party ads which in some cases build up to more than 37% of the ads performance cost. 

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR or susceptible–infectious–recovered) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion models based on known spatial features of interpersonal networks, most particularly the presence of a long-tailed but monotone decline in the probability of interaction with distance, on disease diffusion. Based on simulations of unrestricted COVID-19 diffusion in 19 US cities, we conclude that heterogeneity in population distribution can have large impacts on local pandemic timing and severity, even when aggregate behavior at larger scales mirrors a classic SIR-like pattern. Impacts observed include severe local outbreaks with long lag time relative to the aggregate infection curve, and the presence of numerous areas whose disease trajectories correlate poorly with those of neighboring areas. A simple catchment model for hospital demand illustrates potential implications for health care utilization, with substantial disparities in the timing and extremity of impacts even without distancing interventions. Likewise, analysis of social exposure to others who are morbid or deceased shows considerable variation in how the epidemic can appear to individuals on the ground, potentially affecting risk assessment and compliance with mitigation measures. These results demonstrate the potential for spatial network structure to generate highly nonuniform diffusion behavior even at the scale of cities, and suggest the importance of incorporating such structure when designing models to inform health care planning, predict community outcomes, or identify potential disparities. 

Many social and other networks exhibit stable size scaling relationships, such that features such as mean degree or reciprocation rates change slowly or are approximately constant as the number of vertices increases. Statistical network models built on top of simple Bernoulli baseline (or reference) measures often behave unrealistically in this respect, leading to the development of sparse reference models that preserve features such as mean degree scaling. In this paper, we generalize recent work on the micro-foundations of such reference models to the case of sparse directed graphs with non-vanishing reciprocity, providing a dynamic process interpretation of the emergence of stable macroscopic behavior.