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Extreme precipitation over a two-week period can cause significant impacts to life and property. Trustworthy and easy-to-understand forecasts of these extreme periods on the subseasonal-to-seasonal timeframe may provide additional time for planning. The Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Subseasonal to Seasonal Periods (PRES²iP) project team conducted three workshops over six years to engage with stakeholders to learn what is needed for decision-making for subseasonal precipitation. In this study experimental subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast products were designed, using knowledge gained from previous stakeholder workshops, and shown to decision-makers to evaluate the products for two 14-day extreme precipitation period scenarios. Our stakeholders preferred a combination of products that covered the spatial extent, regional daily values, with associated uncertainty, and text narratives with anticipated impacts for planning within the S2S timeframe. When targeting longer extremes, having information regarding timing of expected impacts was seen as crucial for planning. We found that there is increased uncertainty tolerance with stakeholders when using products at longer lead times that typical skill metrics, such as critical success index or anomaly correlation coefficient, do not capture. Therefore, the use of object-oriented verification, that allows for more flexibility in spatial uncertainty, might be beneficial for evaluating S2S forecasts. These results help to create a foundation for design, verification, and implementation of future operational forecast products with longer lead times, while also providing an example for future workshops that engage both researchers and decision-makers.

 

Tropical easterly waves (TEWs) are a recurrent mode of low‐latitude weather that are often convectively coupled and impact precipitation extremes. Previous work has examined the development of TEWs and their associated precipitation for individual seasons or regional domains, but no studies exist that document the importance of TEW precipitation globally. This study quantifies the precipitation associated with TEWs across the entire tropics using satellite (Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement [IMERG]) and reanalysis (Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 [MERRA‐2]) data. Traditional space‐time filtering of precipitation reveals a mostly similar climatological power distribution for westward traveling, synoptic period disturbances corresponding to TEWs within all data sets. Using objective tracking, we find that areas with maximum TEW frequency such as the North Atlantic, Equatorial Pacific, and Indian Ocean have the highest accumulation of TEW‐associated precipitation. TEWs account for at most 30% of total annual precipitation in regions where they commonly occur and 1%–5% over much of the tropics. Vertically collocated storms, where the 850 and 700 hPa tracks correspond with each other, have higher conditional rain rates and indicate that waves with vertical development produce stronger and more organized convection. We find similar regional patterns using MERRA‐2 precipitation and latent heating, although the importance and contribution of TEWs to the background are reduced compared to IMERG. While the broad pattern of TEW associated precipitation in MERRA‐2 is like observations, the underestimation of rainfall contributions from TEWs, coupled with occasional false alarms in reanalysis data, suggests that MERRA‐2 does not capture organized convection within TEWs correctly.

 

Abstract Riverine ecosystems are dependent in large part on the climate of the region, and climate change is expected to alter climatic factors of interest, such as precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration. In central Texas, precipitation is expected to decrease while temperature increases as the climate changes. Drought and flooding events are also expected to increase in the region, which will also affect streamflow and stream temperature in riverine ecosystems. Numerous studies have assessed the potential impacts of climate change on riverine species. This study examines the projected climate changes, determines potential changes in streamflow and stream temperature for river basins in central Texas, and assesses the appropriate uses of climate projections for riverine species impact assessments, using the Texas fatmucket ( Lampsilis bracteata ) as a case study. Previously established regression methods were used to produce projections of streamflow and stream temperature. This study finds that streamflow is projected to decrease and stream temperature is projected to increase. Using thermal tolerance thresholds previously determined for the Lampsilis bracteata , this study also finds that the lethal temperature events for the Lampsilis bracteata will increase. This study makes several recommendations on the use of downscaled climate projections for impact assessments for riverine species such as the Lampsilis bracteata .