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Abstract Dynamic earthquake triggering is commonly identified through the temporal correlation between increased seismicity rates and global earthquakes that are possible triggering events. However, correlation does not imply causation. False positives may occur when unrelated seismicity rate changes coincidently occur at around the time of candidate triggers. We investigate the expected false positive rate in Southern California with globalM ≥ 6 earthquakes as candidate triggers. We compute the false positive rate by applying the statistical tests used by DeSalvio and Fan (2023),https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487to synthetic earthquake catalogs with no real dynamic triggering. We find a false positive rate of ∼3.5%–8.5% when realistic earthquake clustering is present, consistent with the 95% confidence typically used in seismology. However, when this false positive rate is applied to the tens of thousands of spatial‐temporal windows in Southern California tested in DeSalvio and Fan (2023),https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487, thousands of false positives are expected. The expected false positive occurrence is large enough to explain the observed apparent triggering following 70% of large global earthquakes (DeSalvio & Fan, 2023,https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487), without requiring any true dynamic triggering. Aside from the known triggering from the nearby El Mayor‐Cucapah, Mexico, earthquake, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the reported triggering are indistinguishable from random false positives. This implies that best practice for dynamic triggering studies that depend on temporal correlation is to estimate the false positive rate and investigate whether the observed apparent triggering is distinguishable from the correlations that may occur by chance. 

ABSTRACT Microearthquakes can be dynamically triggered in southern California by remote earthquakes. However, directly connecting dynamic triggering mechanisms with observational data remains challenging. One proposed failure mechanism suggests that both the amplitude and duration of cyclic fatigue caused by the passing seismic wave contribute to triggering occurrence. Here, we measure dynamic strains recorded by borehole strainmeters in the Anza section of the San Jacinto fault zone from 710 earthquakes that occurred over 300 km away between 2008 and 2017 to systematically investigate the role of elevated and sustained strain in controlling dynamic triggering. We design a suite of tests to evaluate whether specific amplitude thresholds and durations of strain can predict dynamic triggering cases. We further test whether the peak dynamic strain (PDS) can predict triggering occurrence in combination with the strain amplitude and duration. Based on these tests, there is no strain amplitude–duration threshold that can distinguish triggering occurrence in Anza. Dynamic triggering is more likely to occur if a remote earthquake causes a PDS above 100 nanostrain, though many cases were triggered at smaller PDSs. The lack of clear correlation between triggering and characteristics of the dynamic strain field suggests that the tested features of the incoming waves do not determine triggering occurrence and local fault conditions and slip processes are more important in controlling dynamic triggering in Anza. 

Abstract The 1 January 2024, moment magnitude 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake ruptured in complex ways, challenging analysis of its tsunami generation. We present tsunami models informed by a 6‐subevent centroid moment tensor (CMT) model obtained through Bayesian inversion of teleseismic and strong motion data. We identify two distinct bilateral rupture episodes. Initial, onshore rupture toward the southwest is followed by delayed re‐nucleation at the hypocenter, likely aided by fault weakening, causing significant seafloor uplift to the northeast. We construct a complex multi‐fault uplift model, validated against geodetic observations, that aligns with known fault system geometries and is critical in modeling the observed tsunami. The simulations can explain tsunami wave amplitude, timing, and polarity of the leading wave, which are crucial for tsunami early warning. Upon comparison with alternative source models and analysis of 2000 multi‐CMT ensemble solutions, we highlight the importance of incorporating complex source effects for realistic tsunami simulations. 

Abstract The 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake was the largest event in California over the past 20 years. The earthquake was preceded by a sequence of foreshocks. However, the physical processes leading to the mainshock remain unclear. Here, we image the ratios of compressional (P)‐ to shear (S)‐wave velocity (V_p/V_s) in the fault zones and examine the spatial and temporal evolution of near‐source material properties during the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. We find that theV_p/V_sratios are spatially homogeneous in the rupture zones, indicating a lack of fault‐zone material difference along strike. We identify an anomalously lowV_p/V_sratio fault patch near the mainshock hypocenter before its occurrence, which returned to the background value after the earthquake. This lowV_p/V_sratio suggests fluid overpressure, which may have facilitated the nucleation of the 2019 Ridgecrest mainshock. 

Abstract Earthquakes can be dynamically triggered by the passing waves of other distant events. The frequent occurrence of dynamic triggering offers tangible hope in revealing earthquake nucleation processes. However, the physical mechanisms behind earthquake dynamic triggering have remained unclear, and contributions of competing hypotheses are challenging to isolate with individual case studies. To gain a systematic understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of dynamic triggering, we investigate the phenomenon in southern California from 2008 to 2017. We use the Quake Template Matching catalog and an approach that does not assume an earthquake occurrence distribution. We develop a new set of statistics to examine the significance of seismicity‐rate changes as well as moment‐release changes. Our results show that up to 70% of 1,388 globalM ≥ 6 events may have triggered earthquakes in southern California. The triggered seismicity often occurred several hours after the passing seismic waves. The Salton Sea Geothermal Field, San Jacinto fault, and Coso Geothermal Field are particularly prone to triggering. Although adjacent fault segments can be triggered by the same earthquakes, the majority of triggered earthquakes seem to be uncorrelated, suggesting that the process is primarily governed by local conditions. Further, the occurrence of dynamic triggering does not seem to correlate with ground motion (e.g., peak ground velocity) at the triggered sites. These observations indicate that nonlinear processes may have primarily regulated the dynamic triggering cases. 

Abstract Understanding earthquake foreshocks is essential for deciphering earthquake rupture physics and can aid seismic hazard mitigation. With regional dense seismic arrays, we identify immediate foreshocks of 527 0.9M5.4 events of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, including 48 earthquakes with series of immediate foreshocks. These immediate foreshocks are adjacent to the mainshocks occurring within 100 s of the mainshocks, and their P waves share high resemblances with the mainshock P waves. However, attributes of the immediate‐foreshock P waves, including the amplitudes and preceding times, do not clearly scale with the mainshock magnitudes. Our observations suggest that earthquake rupture may initiate in a universal fashion but evolves stochastically. This indicates that earthquake rupture development is likely controlled by fine‐scale fault heterogeneities in the Ridgecrest fault system, and the final magnitude is the only difference between small and large earthquakes. 

SUMMARY Backprojection has proven useful in imaging large earthquake rupture processes. The method is generally robust and requires relatively simple assumptions about the fault geometry or the Earth velocity model. It can be applied in both the time and frequency domain. Backprojection images are often obtained from records filtered in a narrow frequency band, limiting its ability to uncover the whole rupture process. Here, we develop and apply a novel frequency-difference backprojection (FDBP) technique to image large earthquakes, which imitates frequencies below the bandwidth of the signal. The new approach originates from frequency-difference beamforming, which was initially designed to locate acoustic sources. Our method stacks the phase-difference of frequency pairs, given by the autoproduct, and is less affected by scattering and -time errors from 3-D Earth structures. It can potentially locate sources more accurately, albeit with lower resolution. In this study, we first develop the FDBP algorithm and then validate it by performing synthetic tests. We further compare two stacking techniques of the FDBP method, Band Width Averaged Autoproduct and its counterpart (BWAP and non-BWAP), and their effects in the backprojection images. We then apply both the FDBP and conventional backprojection methods to the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake as a case study. The backprojection results from the two methods agree well with each other, and we find that the peak radiation loci of the FDBP non-BWAP snapshots have standard error of less than 0.33° during the rupture process. The FDBP method shows promise in resolving complex earthquake rupture processes in tectonically complex regions. 

Abstract A devastating magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck Southern Haiti on 14 August 2021. The earthquake caused severe damage and over 2000 casualties. Resolving the earthquake rupture process can provide critical insights into hazard mitigation. Here we use integrated seismological analyses to obtain the rupture history of the 2021 earthquake. We find the earthquake first broke a blind thrust fault and then jumped to a disconnected strike‐slip fault. Neither of the fault configurations aligns with the left‐lateral tectonic boundary between the Caribbean and North American plates. The complex multi‐fault rupture may result from the oblique plate convergence in the region, so that the initial thrust rupture is due to the boundary‐normal compression and the following strike‐slip faulting originates from the Gonâve microplate block movement, orienting SW‐NE direction. The complex rupture development of the earthquake suggests that the regional deformation is accommodated by a network of segmented faults with diverse faulting conditions. 

Abstract Dynamic triggering of earthquakes has been reported at various fault systems. The triggered earthquakes are thought to be caused either directly by dynamic stress changes due to the passing seismic waves, or indirectly by other nonlinear processes that are initiated by the passing waves. Distinguishing these physical mechanisms is difficult because of the general lack of high‐resolution earthquake catalogs and robust means to quantitatively evaluate triggering responses, particularly, delayed responses. Here we use the high‐resolution Quake Template Matching catalog in Southern California to systematically evaluate teleseismic dynamic triggering patterns in the San Jacinto Fault Zone and the Salton Sea Geothermal Field from 2008 to 2017. We develop a new statistical approach to identify triggered cases, finding that approximately 1 out of every 5 globalM_w ≥ 6 earthquakes dynamically trigger microearthquakes in Southern California. The triggering responses include both instantaneous and delayed triggering, showing a highly heterogeneous pattern and indicating possible evolving triggering thresholds. We do not observe a clear peak ground velocity triggering threshold that can differentiate triggering earthquakes from nontriggering events, but there are subtle differences in the frequency content of the ground motion that may differentiate the earthquakes. In contrast to the depth distribution of background seismicity, the identified triggered earthquakes tend to concentrate at the edges of the seismogenic zones. Although instantaneously triggered earthquakes are likely a result of dynamic Coulomb stress changes, the cases of delayed‐dynamic triggering are best explained by nonlinear triggering processes, including cyclic material fatigue, accelerated transient creep, and stochastic frictional heterogeneities. 

The destructive 2023 moment magnitude ( M w ) 7.8-7.7 earthquake doublet ruptured multiple segments of the East Anatolian Fault system in Turkey. We integrate multi-scale seismic and space-geodetic observations with multi-fault kinematic inversions and dynamic rupture modeling to unravel the events’ complex rupture history and stress-mediated fault interactions. Our analysis reveals three sub-shear slip episodes during the initial M w 7.8 earthquake with delayed rupture initiation to the southwest. The M w 7.7 event occurred 9 hours later with larger slip and supershear rupture on its western branch. Mechanically consistent dynamic models accounting for fault interactions can explain the unexpected rupture paths, and require a heterogeneous background stress. Our results highlight the importance of combining near- and far-field observations with data-driven and physics-based models for seismic hazard assessment.