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Abstract Dynamic earthquake triggering is commonly identified through the temporal correlation between increased seismicity rates and global earthquakes that are possible triggering events. However, correlation does not imply causation. False positives may occur when unrelated seismicity rate changes coincidently occur at around the time of candidate triggers. We investigate the expected false positive rate in Southern California with globalM ≥ 6 earthquakes as candidate triggers. We compute the false positive rate by applying the statistical tests used by DeSalvio and Fan (2023),https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487to synthetic earthquake catalogs with no real dynamic triggering. We find a false positive rate of ∼3.5%–8.5% when realistic earthquake clustering is present, consistent with the 95% confidence typically used in seismology. However, when this false positive rate is applied to the tens of thousands of spatial‐temporal windows in Southern California tested in DeSalvio and Fan (2023),https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487, thousands of false positives are expected. The expected false positive occurrence is large enough to explain the observed apparent triggering following 70% of large global earthquakes (DeSalvio & Fan, 2023,https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487), without requiring any true dynamic triggering. Aside from the known triggering from the nearby El Mayor‐Cucapah, Mexico, earthquake, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the reported triggering are indistinguishable from random false positives. This implies that best practice for dynamic triggering studies that depend on temporal correlation is to estimate the false positive rate and investigate whether the observed apparent triggering is distinguishable from the correlations that may occur by chance. 

ABSTRACT Microearthquakes can be dynamically triggered in southern California by remote earthquakes. However, directly connecting dynamic triggering mechanisms with observational data remains challenging. One proposed failure mechanism suggests that both the amplitude and duration of cyclic fatigue caused by the passing seismic wave contribute to triggering occurrence. Here, we measure dynamic strains recorded by borehole strainmeters in the Anza section of the San Jacinto fault zone from 710 earthquakes that occurred over 300 km away between 2008 and 2017 to systematically investigate the role of elevated and sustained strain in controlling dynamic triggering. We design a suite of tests to evaluate whether specific amplitude thresholds and durations of strain can predict dynamic triggering cases. We further test whether the peak dynamic strain (PDS) can predict triggering occurrence in combination with the strain amplitude and duration. Based on these tests, there is no strain amplitude–duration threshold that can distinguish triggering occurrence in Anza. Dynamic triggering is more likely to occur if a remote earthquake causes a PDS above 100 nanostrain, though many cases were triggered at smaller PDSs. The lack of clear correlation between triggering and characteristics of the dynamic strain field suggests that the tested features of the incoming waves do not determine triggering occurrence and local fault conditions and slip processes are more important in controlling dynamic triggering in Anza. 

Abstract The 1 January 2024, moment magnitude 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake ruptured in complex ways, challenging analysis of its tsunami generation. We present tsunami models informed by a 6‐subevent centroid moment tensor (CMT) model obtained through Bayesian inversion of teleseismic and strong motion data. We identify two distinct bilateral rupture episodes. Initial, onshore rupture toward the southwest is followed by delayed re‐nucleation at the hypocenter, likely aided by fault weakening, causing significant seafloor uplift to the northeast. We construct a complex multi‐fault uplift model, validated against geodetic observations, that aligns with known fault system geometries and is critical in modeling the observed tsunami. The simulations can explain tsunami wave amplitude, timing, and polarity of the leading wave, which are crucial for tsunami early warning. Upon comparison with alternative source models and analysis of 2000 multi‐CMT ensemble solutions, we highlight the importance of incorporating complex source effects for realistic tsunami simulations. 

Abstract The 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake was the largest event in California over the past 20 years. The earthquake was preceded by a sequence of foreshocks. However, the physical processes leading to the mainshock remain unclear. Here, we image the ratios of compressional (P)‐ to shear (S)‐wave velocity (V_p/V_s) in the fault zones and examine the spatial and temporal evolution of near‐source material properties during the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. We find that theV_p/V_sratios are spatially homogeneous in the rupture zones, indicating a lack of fault‐zone material difference along strike. We identify an anomalously lowV_p/V_sratio fault patch near the mainshock hypocenter before its occurrence, which returned to the background value after the earthquake. This lowV_p/V_sratio suggests fluid overpressure, which may have facilitated the nucleation of the 2019 Ridgecrest mainshock. 

The destructive 2023 moment magnitude ( M w ) 7.8-7.7 earthquake doublet ruptured multiple segments of the East Anatolian Fault system in Turkey. We integrate multi-scale seismic and space-geodetic observations with multi-fault kinematic inversions and dynamic rupture modeling to unravel the events’ complex rupture history and stress-mediated fault interactions. Our analysis reveals three sub-shear slip episodes during the initial M w 7.8 earthquake with delayed rupture initiation to the southwest. The M w 7.7 event occurred 9 hours later with larger slip and supershear rupture on its western branch. Mechanically consistent dynamic models accounting for fault interactions can explain the unexpected rupture paths, and require a heterogeneous background stress. Our results highlight the importance of combining near- and far-field observations with data-driven and physics-based models for seismic hazard assessment. 

Abstract We identify 51 near-contemporaneous earthquake pairs along a 100 km segment of California’s San Andreas fault south of San Juan Bautista between 1981 and 2021 that are separated by 5–50 s in time and 5–50 km in space. The event pairs are found throughout the time period and generally involve events smaller than magnitude 2. For 42 of these pairs (82%), the later earthquake is northwest of the earlier event—an asymmetry that is hard to explain with standard earthquake triggering models and suggests an underlying physical connection between the events. We explore possible origins for these observations but are unable to identify a definitive explanation. 

SUMMARY Backprojection has proven useful in imaging large earthquake rupture processes. The method is generally robust and requires relatively simple assumptions about the fault geometry or the Earth velocity model. It can be applied in both the time and frequency domain. Backprojection images are often obtained from records filtered in a narrow frequency band, limiting its ability to uncover the whole rupture process. Here, we develop and apply a novel frequency-difference backprojection (FDBP) technique to image large earthquakes, which imitates frequencies below the bandwidth of the signal. The new approach originates from frequency-difference beamforming, which was initially designed to locate acoustic sources. Our method stacks the phase-difference of frequency pairs, given by the autoproduct, and is less affected by scattering and -time errors from 3-D Earth structures. It can potentially locate sources more accurately, albeit with lower resolution. In this study, we first develop the FDBP algorithm and then validate it by performing synthetic tests. We further compare two stacking techniques of the FDBP method, Band Width Averaged Autoproduct and its counterpart (BWAP and non-BWAP), and their effects in the backprojection images. We then apply both the FDBP and conventional backprojection methods to the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake as a case study. The backprojection results from the two methods agree well with each other, and we find that the peak radiation loci of the FDBP non-BWAP snapshots have standard error of less than 0.33° during the rupture process. The FDBP method shows promise in resolving complex earthquake rupture processes in tectonically complex regions. 

SUMMARY In the Gulf of California, Mexico, the relative motion across the North America–Pacific boundary is accommodated by a series of marine transform faults and spreading centres. About 40 M> 6 earthquakes have occurred in the region since 1960. On 2009 August 3, an Mw 6.9 earthquake occurred near Canal de Ballenas in the region. The earthquake was a strike-slip event with a shallow hypocentre that is likely close to the seafloor. In contrast to an adjacent M7 earthquake, this earthquake triggered a ground-motion-based earthquake early warning algorithm being tested in southern California (∼600 km away). This observation suggests that the abnormally large ground motions and dynamic strains observed for this earthquake relate to its rupture properties. To investigate this possibility, we image the rupture process and resolve the slip distribution of the event using a P-wave backprojection approach and a teleseismic, finite-fault inversion method. Results from these two independent analyses indicate a relatively simple, unilateral rupture propagation directed along-strike in the northward direction. However, the average rupture speed is estimated around 4 km s−1, suggesting a possible supershear rupture. The supershear speed is also supported by a Rayleigh wave Mach cone analysis, although uncertainties in local velocity structure preclude a definitive conclusion. The Canal de Ballenas earthquake dynamically triggered seismicity at multiple sites in California, with triggering response characteristics varying from location-to-location. For instance, some of the triggered earthquakes in California occurred up to 24 hr later, suggesting that nonlinear triggering mechanisms likely have modulated their occurrence.