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Early discrimination and prediction of cognitive decline are crucial for the study of neurodegenerative mechanisms and interventions to promote cognitive resiliency.

Our research is based on resting‐state electroencephalography (EEG) and the current dataset includes 137 consensus‐diagnosed, community‐dwelling Black Americans (ages 60–90 years, 84 healthy controls [HC]; 53 mild cognitive impairment [MCI]) recruited through Wayne State University and Michigan Alzheimer's Disease Research Center. We conducted multiscale analysis on time‐varying brain functional connectivity and developed an innovative soft discrimination model in which each decision on HC or MCI also comes with a connectivity‐based score.

The leave‐one‐out cross‐validation accuracy is 91.97% and 3‐fold accuracy is 91.17%. The 9 to 18 months’ progression trend prediction accuracy over an availability‐limited subset sample is 84.61%.

The EEG‐based soft discrimination model demonstrates high sensitivity and reliability for MCI detection and shows promising capability in proactive prediction of people at risk of MCI before clinical symptoms may occur.

 

Convergent cross-mapping (CCM) has attracted increased attention recently due to its capability to detect causality in nonseparable systems under deterministic settings, which may not be covered by the traditional Granger causality. From an information-theoretic perspective, causality is often characterized as the directed information (DI) flowing from one side to the other. As information is essentially nondeterministic, a natural question is: does CCM measure DI flow? Here, we first causalize CCM so that it aligns with the presumption in causality analysis—the future values of one process cannot influence the past of the other, and then establish and validate the approximate equivalence of causalized CCM (cCCM) and DI under Gaussian variables through both theoretical derivations and fMRI-based brain network causality analysis. Our simulation result indicates that, in general, cCCM tends to be more robust than DI in causality detection. The underlying argument is that DI relies heavily on probability estimation, which is sensitive to data size as well as digitization procedures; cCCM, on the other hand, gets around this problem through geometric cross-mapping between the manifolds involved. Overall, our analysis demonstrates that cross-mapping provides an alternative way to evaluate DI and is potentially an effective technique for identifying both linear and nonlinear causal coupling in brain neural networks and other settings, either random or deterministic, or both.

 

Neurophysiological measurements suggest that human information processing is evinced by neuronal activity. However, the quantitative relationship between the activity of a brain region and its information processing capacity remains unclear. We introduce and validate a mathematical model of the information processing capacity of a brain region in terms of neuronal activity, input storage capacity, and the arrival rate of afferent information. We applied the model to fMRI data obtained from a flanker paradigm in young and old subjects. Our analysis showed that—for a given cognitive task and subject—higher information processing capacity leads to lower neuronal activity and faster responses. Crucially, processing capacity—as estimated from fMRI data—predicted task and age-related differences in reaction times, speaking to the model’s predictive validity. This model offers a framework for modelling of brain dynamics in terms of information processing capacity, and may be exploited for studies of predictive coding and Bayes-optimal decision-making.

 

Rooted in dynamic systems theory, convergent cross mapping (CCM) has attracted increased attention recently due to its capability in detecting linear and nonlinear causal coupling in both random and deterministic settings. One limitation with CCM is that it uses both past and future values to predict the current value, which is inconsistent with the widely accepted definition of causality, where it is assumed that the future values of one process cannot influence the past of another. To overcome this obstacle, in our previous research, we introduced the concept of causalized convergent cross mapping (cCCM), where future values are no longer used to predict the current value. In this paper, we focus on the implementation of cCCM in causality analysis. More specifically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of cCCM in identifying both linear and nonlinear causal coupling in various settings through a large number of examples, including Gaussian random variables with additive noise, sinusoidal waveforms, autoregressive models, stochastic processes with a dominant spectral component embedded in noise, deterministic chaotic maps, and systems with memory, as well as experimental fMRI data. In particular, we analyze the impact of shadow manifold construction on the performance of cCCM and provide detailed guidelines on how to configure the key parameters of cCCM in different applications. Overall, our analysis indicates that cCCM is a promising and easy-to-implement tool for causality analysis in a wide spectrum of applications.