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The concept of sustainability inherently spans multiple spatial scales, sectors, variables, and time horizons. This study links a recently developed method of assessing present‐day agricultural sustainability across environmental, economic, and social dimensions with a process‐based integrated assessment model, in order to allow forward‐looking analysis of sustainability by region and scenario. The sustainable agriculture matrix estimates present‐day agricultural sustainability at the national level using 18 indicator variables, of which this study estimates nine to the year 2100, using an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model. Scenarios include a reference scenario, and scenarios that apply the following measures, both individually and in combination, that are thought to improve sustainability: yield intensification, transition toward more plant‐based (“flexitarian”) diets, and economy‐wide greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. The scenarios illustrate considerable complexity and tradeoffs inherent to efforts to improve agricultural sustainability in all regions globally. For example, yield intensification typically increases nitrogen pollution, flexitarian diets can reduce agricultural output, and greenhouse gas mitigation efforts may either increase deforestation or crowd out crop and livestock production due to consequent bioenergy demands. However, there is considerable inter‐regional heterogeneity in the responses, and the importance of such secondary responses also differs by region. The analysis and post‐processing methods developed in this study allow quantification and visualization of the absolute and relative magnitude of the tradeoffs between agricultural sustainability indicator variables across regions, time periods, and scenarios.

Nitrogen (N) deposition is a significant nutrient input to cropland and consequently important for the evaluation of N budgets and N use efficiency (NUE) at different scales and over time. However, the spatiotemporal coverage of N deposition measurements is limited globally, whereas modeled N deposition values carry uncertainties. Here, we reviewed existing methods and related data sources for quantifying N deposition inputs to crop production on a national scale. We utilized different data sources to estimate N deposition input to crop production at national scale and compared our estimates with 14 N budget datasets, as well as measured N deposition data from observation networks in 9 countries. We created four datasets of N deposition inputs on cropland during 1961–2020 for 236 countries. These products showed good agreement for the majority of countries and can be used in the modeling and assessment of NUE at national and global scales. One of the datasets is recommended for general use in regional to global N budget and NUE estimates.

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked^1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently^4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)⁴. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

To feed the world population while mitigating pressing nitrogen (N) pollution problems, tremendous efforts have been devoted to developing and implementing N‐efficient technologies in crop or livestock production, but limited progress has been made. The N management improvement on a farm does not necessarily translate to N pollution reduction on a broader scale due to complex responses of natural and human systems and lack of coordination among stakeholders. Consequently, it is imperative to develop an N management framework that encompasses the complex N dynamics across systems and spatial scales, yet simple enough to guide policies and actions of various stakeholders. Here, we propose a new framework,CAFE, that defines four N management systems (Cropping,Animal‐crop,Food, andEcosystem) in a hierarchical manner, and apply it to 13 representative countries to partition N surpluses across systems in a simple and consistent manner, thereby facilitating the identification and prioritization of systems‐based intervention strategies. Surprisingly, theCropping system contributes less than half of the total N surplus within itsEcosystem for most countries, highlighting the importance of N management beyond croplands. This framework reveals that the relevant priorities and key stakeholders for enhanced N management vary among countries, such as improving theCropping‐system efficiencies in China, adjusting the animal‐crop portfolio in the Netherlands, reducing food wastage in the U.S., and lowering crop storage losses and increasing overall production capacities in African countries. As N surplus increases along theCAFEhierarchy, systems‐based intervention strategies are revealed: (a) coupling chemical fertilizers with other N sources by maintaining half of the N from manure and biological N fixation; (b) coupling animal‐crop production by reducing animal density to lower than 1.2 livestock units per hectare, and increasing self‐sufficiency of animal feed to above 50%; (c) coupling food trade with domestic demand and production; and (d) coupling population needs for economic opportunities with environmental capacity of the region. This novel framework can help unpack the “wicked” N management challenges across systems to provide new insights and tools for improving N management on and beyond farms.

Abstract. Nutrient budgets help to identify the excess or insufficient use of fertilizers and other nutrient sources in agriculture. They allow for the calculation of indicators, such as the nutrient balance (surplus if positive or deficit if negative) and nutrient use efficiency, that help to monitor agricultural productivity and sustainability across the world. We present a global database of country-level budget estimates for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) on cropland. The database, disseminated in FAOSTAT, is meant to provide a global reference, synthesizing and continuously updating the state of the art on this topic. The database covers 205 countries and territories, as well as regional and global aggregates, for the period from 1961 to 2020. Results highlight the wide range in nutrient use and nutrient use efficiencies across geographic regions, nutrients, and time. The average N balance on global cropland has remained fairly steady at about 50–55 kg ha−1 yr−1 during the past 15 years, despite increasing N inputs. Regional trends, however, show recent average N surpluses that range from a low of about 10 kg N ha−1 yr−1 in Africa to more than 90 kg N ha−1 yr−1 in Asia. Encouragingly, average global cropland N use efficiency decreased from about 59 % in 1961 to a low of 43 % in 1988, but it has risen since then to a level of 55 %. Phosphorus deficits are mainly found in Africa, whereas potassium deficits occur in Africa and the Americas. This study introduces improvements over previous work in relation to the key nutrient coefficients affecting nutrient budgets and nutrient use efficiency estimates, especially with respect to nutrient removal in crop products, manure nutrient content, atmospheric deposition and crop biological N fixation rates. We conclude by discussing future research directions and highlighting the need to align statistical definitions across research groups as well as to further refine plant and livestock coefficients and expand estimates to all agricultural land, including nutrient flows in meadows and pastures. Further information is available from https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.hx3ffbgkh (Ludemann et al., 2023b) as well as the FAOSTAT database (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/ESB; FAO, 2022a) and is updated annually.