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1. Costs of forest carbon sequestration in the presence of climate change impacts

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec5  

   Golub, Alla; Sohngen, Brent; Cai, Yongyang; Kim, John; Hertel, Thomas (September 2022, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Forests play a critical role in mitigating climate change, and, at the same time, are predicted to experience large-scale impacts of climate change that will affect the efficiency of forests in mitigation efforts. Projections of future carbon sequestration potential typically do not account for the changing economic costs of timber and agricultural production and land use change. We integrated a dynamic forward-looking economic optimization model of global land use with results from a dynamic global vegetation model and meta-analysis of climate impacts on crop yields to project future carbon sequestration in forests. We find that the direct impacts of climate change on forests, represented by changes in dieback and forest growth, and indirect effects due to lost crop productivity, together result in a net gain of 17 Gt C in aboveground forest carbon storage from 2000 to 2100. Increases in climate-driven forest growth rates will result in an 81%–99% reduction in costs of reaching a range of global forest carbon stock targets in 2100, while the increases in dieback rates are projected to raise the costs by 57%–132%. When combined, these two direct impacts are expected to reduce the global costs of climate change mitigation in forests by more than 70%. Inclusion of the third, indirect impact of climate change on forests through reduction in crop yields, and the resulting expansion of cropland, raises the costs by 11%–38% and widens the uncertainty range. While we cannot rule out the possibility of climate change increasing mitigation costs, the central outcomes of the simultaneous impacts of climate change on forests and agriculture are 64%–86% reductions in the mitigation costs. Overall, the results suggest that concerns about climate driven dieback in forests should not inhibit the ambitions of policy makers in expanding forest-based climate solutions. 

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2. Contributions of healthier diets and agricultural productivity toward sustainability and climate goals in the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01232-w  

   Wu, Grace C.; Baker, Justin S.; Wade, Christopher M.; McCord, Gordon C.; Fargione, Joseph E.; Havlik, Petr (January 2023, Sustainability Science)

   Abstract Meeting ambitious climate targets will require deploying the full suite of mitigation options, including those that indirectly reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. Healthy diets have sustainability co-benefits by directly reducing livestock emissions as well as indirectly reducing land use emissions. Increased crop productivity could indirectly avoid emissions by reducing cropland area. However, there is disagreement on the sustainability of proposed healthy U.S. diets and a lack of clarity on how long-term sustainability benefits may change in response to shifts in the livestock sector. Here, we explore the GHG emissions impacts of seven scenarios that vary U.S. crop yields and healthier diets in the U.S. and overseas. We also examine how impacts vary across assumptions of future ruminant livestock productivity and ruminant stocking density in the U.S. We employ two complementary land use models—the US FABLE Calculator, an agricultural and forestry sector accounting model with high agricultural commodity representation, and GLOBIOM, a spatially explicit partial equilibrium optimization model for global land use systems. Results suggest that healthier U.S. diets that follow the Dietary Guidelines for Americans reduce agricultural and land use greenhouse gas emissions by 25–57% (approx 120–310 MtCO 2e /y) and pastureland area by 28–38%. The potential emissions and land sparing benefits of U.S. agricultural productivity growth are modest within the U.S. due to the increasing comparative advantage of U.S. crops. Our findings suggest that healthy U.S. diets can significantly contribute toward meeting U.S. long-term climate goals for the land use sectors. 

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3. The effects of multifactorial stress combination on rice and maize

   https://doi.org/10.1093/plphys/kiad557  

   Sinha, Ranjita; Peláez-Vico, María Ángeles; Shostak, Benjamin; Nguyen, Thao Thi; Pascual, Lidia S; Ogden, Andrew M; Lyu, Zhen; Zandalinas, Sara I; Joshi, Trupti; Fritschi, Felix B; et al (October 2023, Plant Physiology)

   Abstract The complexity of environmental factors affecting crops in the field is gradually increasing due to climate change-associated weather events, such as droughts or floods combined with heat waves, coupled with the accumulation of different environmental and agricultural pollutants. The impact of multiple stress conditions on plants was recently termed “multifactorial stress combination” (MFSC) and defined as the occurrence of 3 or more stressors that impact plants simultaneously or sequentially. We recently reported that with the increased number and complexity of different MFSC stressors, the growth and survival of Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) seedlings declines, even if the level of each individual stress is low enough to have no significant effect on plants. However, whether MFSC would impact commercial crop cultivars is largely unknown. Here, we reveal that a MFSC of 5 different low-level abiotic stresses (salinity, heat, the herbicide paraquat, phosphorus deficiency, and the heavy metal cadmium), applied in an increasing level of complexity, has a significant negative impact on the growth and biomass of a commercial rice (Oryza sativa) cultivar and a maize (Zea mays) hybrid. Proteomics, element content, and mixOmics analyses of MFSC in rice identified proteins that correlate with the impact of MFSC on rice seedlings, and analysis of 42 different rice genotypes subjected to MFSC revealed substantial genetic variability in responses to this unique state of stress combination. Taken together, our findings reveal that the impacts of MFSC on 2 different crop species are severe and that MFSC may substantially affect agricultural productivity. 

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4. A bibliometric analysis of research for climate impact on agriculture

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1191305  

   Wu, You; Meng, Shuhan; Liu, Chaoshun; Gao, Wei; Liang, Xin-Zhong (July 2023, Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems)

   Climate anomalies and changes have complex and critical impacts on agriculture. Given global warming, the scientific community has dramatically increased research on these impacts. During 1996–2022, over 3,000 peer-reviewed papers in the Web of Science Core Collection database have investigated the fields. This study conducted a bibliometric analysis of these papers for systematic mapping and inductive understanding to comprehensively review the research’s status, focus, network, and funding. After almost 30 years, the research is now centered in quantifying climate impacts on crop yields and agriculture productivity while seeking effective adaptation solutions. The hot keywords recently emerged include poverty, food security, water resource, climate service, climate-smart agriculture, sustainability, and policy. They suggest increasing concerns on global food and water shortage and pressing needs for action to adapt to climate change and sustain agricultural productivity. Given the uncertainty of climate change and the complexity of agriculture systems, most current studies are interdisciplinary research combining various agricultural fields with climate, environmental, and socioeconomic sciences. The United States, as the world’s leading food commodity producer, has the most diverse funding agencies and provides the largest number of awards to support the research. Future priority research should take the coupled earth system approach with the food-energy-water nexus principles to provide effective, actionable decision supports at local-regional scales to sustain national agricultural productivity and quantify climate-smart agricultural practices to mitigate global warming. 

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5. Using an urban growth model framework to project the impacts of climate change on coastal populations

   https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784484852.039  

   B. Naurath, J.L. Irish (January 2023, 2023 World Environmental & Water Resources Congress)

   Coastal populations are facing increasing environmental stress from coastal hazards including sea level rise, increasing tidal ranges, and storm surges from hurricanes. The East and Gulf Coasts of the United States (U.S.) are projected to face high rates of sea level rise and include many of the U.S.’s largest urban populations. This study proposes modelling land-use change and coastal change between 1996-2019 to project the impacts of intensifying coastal hazards on the U.S. Gulf and East Coast populations and to estimate how coastal populations are growing or retreating from high-risk areas. The primary objective is to develop a multifaceted spatial-temporal (MuST) framework to model coastal change through land-use projections and thorough analysis of the indicators of coastal urban growth or retreat. While urban growth models exist, one that presents an interdisciplinary evaluation of potential growth and retreat due to geographic factors and coastal hazards has not been released. This study proposes modelling urban growth using geospatial metrics including topographic slope, topographic elevation, distance to existing urban areas, distance to existing roads, and distance to the coast. The model will also use historic hurricane data, including storm track and footprint for named storms between 1996-2019 and the associated flood claims data from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to account for existing impacts from coastal storms. Additionally, climate change data including sea level rise projections and future tidal ranges will be incorporated to project the impacts of future coastal hazards on urban expansion over the next 30 years (2020-2050). The basis of the urban growth model compares land-use change between 1996-2019 to complete a geospatial analysis of both the areas shifting from rural (agricultural, forest, wetlands) to urban, indicating growth and population data from 2000-2020, to evaluate coastal retreat or abandonment over the next 30 years. 

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