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1. Costs of forest carbon sequestration in the presence of climate change impacts

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec5  

   Golub, Alla; Sohngen, Brent; Cai, Yongyang; Kim, John; Hertel, Thomas (September 2022, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Forests play a critical role in mitigating climate change, and, at the same time, are predicted to experience large-scale impacts of climate change that will affect the efficiency of forests in mitigation efforts. Projections of future carbon sequestration potential typically do not account for the changing economic costs of timber and agricultural production and land use change. We integrated a dynamic forward-looking economic optimization model of global land use with results from a dynamic global vegetation model and meta-analysis of climate impacts on crop yields to project future carbon sequestration in forests. We find that the direct impacts of climate change on forests, represented by changes in dieback and forest growth, and indirect effects due to lost crop productivity, together result in a net gain of 17 Gt C in aboveground forest carbon storage from 2000 to 2100. Increases in climate-driven forest growth rates will result in an 81%–99% reduction in costs of reaching a range of global forest carbon stock targets in 2100, while the increases in dieback rates are projected to raise the costs by 57%–132%. When combined, these two direct impacts are expected to reduce the global costs of climate change mitigation in forests by more than 70%. Inclusion of the third, indirect impact of climate change on forests through reduction in crop yields, and the resulting expansion of cropland, raises the costs by 11%–38% and widens the uncertainty range. While we cannot rule out the possibility of climate change increasing mitigation costs, the central outcomes of the simultaneous impacts of climate change on forests and agriculture are 64%–86% reductions in the mitigation costs. Overall, the results suggest that concerns about climate driven dieback in forests should not inhibit the ambitions of policy makers in expanding forest-based climate solutions. 

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2. Contributions of healthier diets and agricultural productivity toward sustainability and climate goals in the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01232-w  

   Wu, Grace C.; Baker, Justin S.; Wade, Christopher M.; McCord, Gordon C.; Fargione, Joseph E.; Havlik, Petr (November 2022, Sustainability Science)

   Abstract Meeting ambitious climate targets will require deploying the full suite of mitigation options, including those that indirectly reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. Healthy diets have sustainability co-benefits by directly reducing livestock emissions as well as indirectly reducing land use emissions. Increased crop productivity could indirectly avoid emissions by reducing cropland area. However, there is disagreement on the sustainability of proposed healthy U.S. diets and a lack of clarity on how long-term sustainability benefits may change in response to shifts in the livestock sector. Here, we explore the GHG emissions impacts of seven scenarios that vary U.S. crop yields and healthier diets in the U.S. and overseas. We also examine how impacts vary across assumptions of future ruminant livestock productivity and ruminant stocking density in the U.S. We employ two complementary land use models—the US FABLE Calculator, an agricultural and forestry sector accounting model with high agricultural commodity representation, and GLOBIOM, a spatially explicit partial equilibrium optimization model for global land use systems. Results suggest that healthier U.S. diets that follow the Dietary Guidelines for Americans reduce agricultural and land use greenhouse gas emissions by 25–57% (approx 120–310 MtCO_2e/y) and pastureland area by 28–38%. The potential emissions and land sparing benefits of U.S. agricultural productivity growth are modest within the U.S. due to the increasing comparative advantage of U.S. crops. Our findings suggest that healthy U.S. diets can significantly contribute toward meeting U.S. long-term climate goals for the land use sectors. 

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3. The effects of multifactorial stress combination on rice and maize

   https://doi.org/10.1093/plphys/kiad557  

   Sinha, Ranjita; Peláez-Vico, María Ángeles; Shostak, Benjamin; Nguyen, Thao Thi; Pascual, Lidia S; Ogden, Andrew M; Lyu, Zhen; Zandalinas, Sara I; Joshi, Trupti; Fritschi, Felix B; et al (October 2023, Plant Physiology)

   Abstract The complexity of environmental factors affecting crops in the field is gradually increasing due to climate change-associated weather events, such as droughts or floods combined with heat waves, coupled with the accumulation of different environmental and agricultural pollutants. The impact of multiple stress conditions on plants was recently termed “multifactorial stress combination” (MFSC) and defined as the occurrence of 3 or more stressors that impact plants simultaneously or sequentially. We recently reported that with the increased number and complexity of different MFSC stressors, the growth and survival of Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) seedlings declines, even if the level of each individual stress is low enough to have no significant effect on plants. However, whether MFSC would impact commercial crop cultivars is largely unknown. Here, we reveal that a MFSC of 5 different low-level abiotic stresses (salinity, heat, the herbicide paraquat, phosphorus deficiency, and the heavy metal cadmium), applied in an increasing level of complexity, has a significant negative impact on the growth and biomass of a commercial rice (Oryza sativa) cultivar and a maize (Zea mays) hybrid. Proteomics, element content, and mixOmics analyses of MFSC in rice identified proteins that correlate with the impact of MFSC on rice seedlings, and analysis of 42 different rice genotypes subjected to MFSC revealed substantial genetic variability in responses to this unique state of stress combination. Taken together, our findings reveal that the impacts of MFSC on 2 different crop species are severe and that MFSC may substantially affect agricultural productivity. 

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4. Opposing pressures of climate and land‐use change on a native bee

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15468  

   Kelemen, Evan P.; Rehan, Sandra M. (December 2020, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract Anthropogenic activities are rapidly changing the environment, and species that do not respond face a higher risk of extinction. Species may respond to environmental changes by modifying their behaviors, shifting their distributions, or changing their morphology. Recent morphological responses are often measured by changes in body size. Changes in body size are often attributed to climate change, but may instead be due to differences in available resources associated with changes in local land‐use. The effects of temperature and land‐use can be uncoupled in populations of the small carpenter beeCeratina calcarata, which have experienced changes in agricultural and urban cover independent of climate change. We studied how the morphology of this bee has changed over the past 118 years (1902–2019) in relation to climate change and the past 45 years (1974–2019) in relation to agricultural and urban cover. Over this time, summer temperatures increased. We found that male and female size decreased with increasing temperature. Male size also decreased with agricultural expansion. Female size, however, increased with agricultural expansion. These results suggest that rising temperatures correlate with a decrease in female body size, while, opposite to predicted, agricultural land‐use may select for increased female body size. These opposing pressures act concurrently and may result in bee extirpation from agricultural habitats if selection for large sizes is unsustainable as temperatures continue to increase. Furthermore, this study emphasizes the need to consider multiple environmental stressors when examining the effects of climate change due to their interactions. 

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5. Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abeb9f  

   de Lima, Cicero Z.; Buzan, Jonathan R.; Moore, Frances C.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Huber, Matthew; Hertel, Thomas W. (March 2021, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3^∘C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3^∘C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline. 

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