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It is essential to study the robustness and centrality of interdependent networks for building reliable interdependent systems. Here, we consider a nonlinear load-capacity cascading failure model on interdependent networks, where the initial load distribution is not random, as usually assumed, but determined by the influence of each node in the interdependent network. The node influence is measured by an automated entropy-weighted multi-attribute algorithm that takes into account both different centrality measures of nodes and the interdependence of node pairs, then averaging for not only the node itself but also its nearest neighbors and next-nearest neighbors. The resilience of interdependent networks under such a more practical and accurate setting is thoroughly investigated for various network parameters, as well as how nodes from different layers are coupled and the corresponding coupling strength. The results thereby can help better monitoring interdependent systems.

 

Quantum networks describe communication networks that are based on quantum entanglement. A concurrence percolation theory has been recently developed to determine the required entanglement to enable communication between two distant stations in an arbitrary quantum network. Unfortunately, concurrence percolation has been calculated only for very small networks or large networks without loops. Here, we develop a set of mathematical tools for approximating the concurrence percolation threshold for unprecedented large-scale quantum networks by estimating the path-length distribution, under the assumption that all paths between a given pair of nodes have no overlap. We show that our approximate method agrees closely with analytical results from concurrence percolation theory. The numerical results we present include 2D square lattices of 200²nodes and complex networks of up to 10⁴nodes. The entanglement percolation threshold of a quantum network is a crucial parameter for constructing a real-world communication network based on entanglement, and our method offers a significant speed-up for the intensive computations involved.

 

Compound failures occur when urban flooding coincides with traffic congestion, and their impact on network connectivity is poorly understood. Firstly, either three-dimensional road networks or the traffic on the roads has been considered, but not both. Secondly, we lack network science frameworks to consider compound failures in infrastructure networks. Here we present a network-theory-based framework that bridges this gap by considering compound structural, functional, and topological failures. We analyze high-resolution traffic data using network percolation theory to study the response of the transportation network in Harris County, Texas, US to Hurricane Harvey in 2017. We find that 2.2% of flood-induced compound failure may lead to a reduction in the size of the largest cluster where network connectivity exists, the giant component, 17.7%. We conclude that indirect effects, such as changes in traffic patterns, must be accounted for when assessing the impacts of flooding on transportation network connectivity and functioning.

 

Many systems may switch to an undesired state due to internal failures or external perturbations, of which critical transitions toward degraded ecosystem states are prominent examples. Resilience restoration focuses on the ability of spatially-extended systems and the required time to recover to their desired states under stochastic environmental conditions. The difficulty is rooted in the lack of mathematical tools to analyze systems with high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and stochastic effects. Here we show that nucleation theory can be employed to advance resilience restoration in spatially-embedded ecological systems. We find that systems may exhibit single-cluster or multi-cluster phases depending on their sizes and noise strengths. We also discover a scaling law governing the restoration time for arbitrary system sizes and noise strengths in two-dimensional systems. This approach is not limited to ecosystems and has applications in various dynamical systems, from biology to infrastructural systems.

 

Despite a number of successful approaches in predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and quantifying the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions starting from data about the initial outbreak location, we lack an intrinsic understanding as outbreak locations shift and evolve. Here, we fill this gap by developing a country distance approach to capture the pandemic’s propagation backbone tree from a complex airline network with multiple and evolving outbreak locations. We apply this approach, which is analogous to the effective resistance in series and parallel circuits, to examine countries’ closeness regarding disease spreading and evaluate the effectiveness of travel restrictions on delaying infections. In particular, we find that 63.2% of travel restrictions implemented as of 1 June 2020 are ineffective. The remaining percentage postponed the disease arrival time by 18.56 days per geographical area and resulted in a total reduction of 13,186,045 infected cases. Our approach enables us to design optimized and coordinated travel restrictions to extend the delay in arrival time and further reduce more infected cases while preserving air travel.

 

Network structure provides critical information for understanding the dynamic behavior of complex systems. However, the complete structure of real-world networks is often unavailable, thus it is crucially important to develop approaches to infer a more complete structure of networks. In this paper, we integrate the configuration model for generating random networks into an Expectation–Maximization–Aggregation (EMA) framework to reconstruct the complete structure of multiplex networks. We validate the proposed EMA framework against the Expectation–Maximization (EM) framework and random model on several real-world multiplex networks, including both covert and overt ones. It is found that the EMA framework generally achieves the best predictive accuracy compared to the EM framework and the random model. As the number of layers increases, the performance improvement of EMA over EM decreases. The inferred multiplex networks can be leveraged to inform the decision-making on monitoring covert networks as well as allocating limited resources for collecting additional information to improve reconstruction accuracy. For law enforcement agencies, the inferred complete network structure can be used to develop more effective strategies for covert network interdiction. 

Abstract The rapid rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine raises the question of whether and when the ongoing pandemic could be eliminated with vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Despite advances in the impact of NPIs and the conceptual belief that NPIs and vaccination control COVID-19 infections, we lack evidence to employ control theory in real-world social human dynamics in the context of disease spreading. We bridge the gap by developing a new analytical framework that treats COVID-19 as a feedback control system with the NPIs and vaccination as the controllers and a computational model that maps human social behaviors into input signals. This approach enables us to effectively predict the epidemic spreading in 381 Metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the US by learning our model parameters utilizing the time series NPIs (i.e., the stay-at-home order, face-mask wearing, and testing) data. This model allows us to optimally identify three NPIs to predict infections accurately in 381 MSAs and avoid over-fitting. Our numerical results demonstrate our approach’s excellent predictive power with R 2  > 0.9 for all the MSAs regardless of their sizes, locations, and demographic status. Our methodology allows us to estimate the needed vaccine coverage and NPIs for achieving R e to a manageable level and how the variants of concern diminish the likelihood for disease elimination at each location. Our analytical results provide insights into the debates surrounding the elimination of COVID-19. NPIs, if tailored to the MSAs, can drive the pandemic to an easily containable level and suppress future recurrences of epidemic cycles. 

Abstract An excellent method for predicting links in multiplex networks is reflected in its ability to reconstruct them accurately. Although link prediction methods perform well on estimating the existence probability of each potential link in monoplex networks by the set of partially observed links, we lack a mathematical tool to reconstruct the multiplex network from the observed aggregate topology and partially observed links in multiplex networks. Here, we fill this gap by developing a theoretical and computational framework that builds a probability space containing possible structures with a maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we discovered that the discrimination, an indicator quantifying differences between layers from an entropy perspective, determines the reconstructability, i.e., the accuracy of such reconstruction. This finding enables us to design the optimal strategy to allocate the set of observed links in different layers for promoting the optimal reconstruction of multiplex networks. Finally, the theoretical analyses are corroborated by empirical results from biological, social, engineered systems, and a large volume of synthetic networks.