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            Summary Natural history collections (NHCs) are essential for studying biodiversity. Although spatial, temporal, and taxonomic biases in NHCs affect analyses, the influence of collector practices on biases remains largely unexplored.We utilized one million digitized specimens collected in the northeastern United States byc.10 000 collectors to investigate how collector practices shape spatial, temporal, and taxonomic biases in NHCs; and similarities and differences between practices of more‐ and less‐prolific collectors.We identified six common collector practices, or collection norms: collectors generally collected different species, from multiple locations, from sites sampled by others, during the principal growing season, species identifiable outside peak collecting months, and species from species‐poor families and genera. Some norms changed over decades, with different taxa favored during different periods. Collection norms have increased taxonomic coverage in NHCs; however, collectors typically avoided large, taxonomically complex groups, causing their underrepresentation in NHCs. Less‐prolific collectors greatly enhanced coverage by collecting during more months and from less‐sampled locations.We assert that overall collection biases are shaped by shared predictable collection norms rather than random practices of individual collectors. Predictable biases offer an opportunity to more effectively address biases in future biodiversity models.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available June 19, 2026
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            Abstract Anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity necessitate efficient and highly scalable methods to predict global species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) face limitations with large-scale datasets, complex interspecies interactions, and data quality. Here, we introduce EcoVAE, a framework of autoencoder-based generative models trained separately on nearly 124 million georeferenced occurrences from taxa including plants, butterflies and mammals, to predict their global distributions at both genus and species levels. EcoVAE achieves high precision and speed, captures underlying distribution patterns through unsupervised learning, and reveals interspecies interactions viain silicoperturbation analyses. Additionally, it evaluates global sampling efforts and interpolates distributions without relying on environmental variables, offering new applications for biodiversity exploration and monitoring.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available December 16, 2025
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            Summary Phenological response to global climate change can impact ecosystem functions. There are various data sources from which spatiotemporal and taxonomic phenological data may be obtained: mobilized herbaria, community science initiatives, observatory networks, and remote sensing. However, analyses conducted to date have generally relied on single sources of these data. Siloed treatment of data in analyses may be due to the lack of harmonization across different data sources that offer partially nonoverlapping information and are often complementary. Such treatment precludes a deeper understanding of phenological responses at varying macroecological scales. Here, we describe a detailed vision for the harmonization of phenological data, including the direct integration of disparate sources of phenological data using a common schema. Specifically, we highlight existing methods for data harmonization that can be applied to phenological data: data design patterns, metadata standards, and ontologies. We describe how harmonized data from multiple sources can be integrated into analyses using existing methods and discuss the use of automated extraction techniques. Data harmonization is not a new concept in ecology, but the harmonization of phenological data is overdue. We aim to highlight the need for better data harmonization, providing a roadmap for how harmonized phenological data may fill gaps while simultaneously being integrated into analyses.more » « less
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            Summary Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate‐sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges.Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel ‘phenology‐informed’ SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology‐informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting.When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology‐informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes.Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait‐based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.more » « less
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            Summary Urbanization can affect the timing of plant reproduction (i.e. flowering and fruiting) and associated ecosystem processes. However, our knowledge of how plant phenology responds to urbanization and its associated environmental changes is limited.Herbaria represent an important, but underutilized source of data for investigating this question. We harnessed phenological data from herbarium specimens representing 200 plant species collected across 120 yr from the eastern US to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on flowering and fruiting phenology and frost risk (i.e. time between the last frost date and flowering).Effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology varied significantly in direction and magnitude across species ranges. Increased urbanization led to earlier flowering in colder and wetter regions and delayed fruiting in regions with wetter spring conditions. Frost risk was elevated with increased urbanization in regions with colder and wetter spring conditions.Our study demonstrates that predictions of phenological change and its associated impacts must account for both climatic and human effects, which are context dependent and do not necessarily coincide. We must move beyond phenological models that only incorporate temperature variables and consider multiple environmental factors and their interactions when estimating plant phenology, especially at larger spatial and taxonomic scales.more » « less
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            Abstract Native biodiversity decline and non-native species spread are major features of the Anthropocene. Both processes can drive biotic homogenization by reducing trait and phylogenetic differences in species assemblages between regions, thus diminishing the regional distinctiveness of biotas and likely have negative impacts on key ecosystem functions. However, a global assessment of this phenomenon is lacking. Here, using a dataset of >200,000 plant species, we demonstrate widespread and temporal decreases in species and phylogenetic turnover across grain sizes and spatial extents. The extent of homogenization within major biomes is pronounced and is overwhelmingly explained by non-native species naturalizations. Asia and North America are major sources of non-native species; however, the species they export tend to be phylogenetically close to recipient floras. Australia, the Pacific and Europe, in contrast, contribute fewer species to the global pool of non-natives, but represent a disproportionate amount of phylogenetic diversity. The timeline of most naturalisations coincides with widespread human migration within the last ~500 years, and demonstrates the profound influence humans exert on regional biotas beyond changes in species richness.more » « less
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            Abstract Species interactions drive ecosystem processes and are a major focus of global change research. Among the most consequential interactions expected to shift with climate change are those between insect herbivores and plants, both of which are highly sensitive to temperature. Insect herbivores and their host plants display varying levels of synchrony that could be disrupted or enhanced by climate change, yet empirical data on changes in synchrony are lacking. Using evidence of herbivory on herbarium specimens collected from the northeastern United States and France from 1900 to 2015, we provide evidence that plant species with temperature‐sensitive phenologies experience higher levels of insect damage in warmer years, while less temperature‐sensitive, co‐occurring species do not. While herbivory might be mediated by interactions between warming and phenology through multiple pathways, we suggest that warming might lengthen growing seasons for phenologically sensitive plant species, exposing their leaves to herbivores for longer periods of time in warm years. We propose that elevated herbivory in warm years may represent a previously underappreciated cost to phenological tracking of climate change over longer timescales.more » « less
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            Summary Interactions between species can influence successful reproduction, resulting in reproductive character displacement, where the similarity of reproductive traits – such as flowering time – among close relatives growing together differ from when growing apart. Evidence for the overall prevalence and direction of this phenomenon, and its stability under environmental change, remains untested across large scales.Using the power of crowdsourcing, we gathered phenological information from over 40 000 herbarium specimens, and investigated displacement in flowering time across 110 animal‐pollinated species in the eastern USA.Overall, flowering time displacement is not common across large scales. However, displacement is generally greater among species pairs that flower close in time, regardless of direction. Furthermore, with climate change, the flowering times of closely related species are predicted, on average, to shift further apart by the mid‐21stcentury.We demonstrate that the degree and direction of phenological displacement among co‐occurring closely related species pairs varies tremendously. However, future climate change may alter the differences in reproductive timing among many of these species pairs, which may have significant consequences for species interactions and gene flow. Our study provides one promising path towards understanding how the phenological landscape is structured and may respond to future environmental change.more » « less
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            Free, publicly-accessible full text available March 1, 2026
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