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Award ID contains: 2116186

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  1. Abstract We compare insights provided by local and large‐scale perspectives of extreme heat events in ERA5 near‐surface temperature data. Heat waves where temperatures exceed four standard deviations about the climatological‐mean are expected less than once a century locally but occur roughly once every 10 days somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The high frequency of occurrence indicated by the hemispheric perspective is not well represented by normal statistics because it strongly depends on the shapes of the local temperature distributions. The large effective sample size afforded by the hemispheric perspective provides robust evidence of trends in the frequency of occurrence of extreme heat events integrated over the Northern Hemisphere. It also confirms that trends in heat events summed over the hemisphere can be explained by changes in mean temperature alone. 
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  2. Abstract Thermodynamical and dynamical aspects of the climate system response to an-thropogenic forcing are often considered in two distinct frameworks: The former in the context of the forcing-feedback framework; the latter in the context of eddy-mean flow feedbacks and large-scale thermodynamic constraints. Here we use experiments with the dynamical core of a general circulation model (GCM) to provide insights into the relationships between these two frameworks. We first demonstrate that the climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity in a dynamical core model are determined by its prescribed thermal relaxation timescales. We then perform two experiments: One that explores the relationships between the thermal relaxation timescale and the climatological circulation; and a second that explores the relationships between the thermal relaxation timescale and the circulation response to a global warming-like forcing perturbation. The results indicate that shorter relaxation timescales (i.e., lower climate sensitivities in the context of a dynamical core model) are associated with 1) a more vigorous large-scale circulation, including increased thermal diffusivity and stronger and more poleward storm tracks and eddy-driven jets and 2) a weaker poleward displacement of the storm tracks and eddy-driven jets in response to the global warming-like forcing perturbation. Interestingly, the circulation response to the forcing perturbation effectively disappears when the thermal relaxation timescales are spatially uniform, suggesting that the circulation response to homogeneous forcing requires spatial inhomogeneities in the local feedback parameter. Implications for anticipating the circulation response to global warming and thermodynamic constraints on the circulation are discussed. 
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