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Abstract We investigate the occurrence patterns of SSEs along the shallow (15 km) portion of the Hikurangi subduction zone. First, we build a manual catalog constraining timing and length of 92 SSEs between 2006 and 2024. Then, we investigate SSE occurrence patterns by fitting a renewal process, using Bayesian inference to obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters. Our results show that SSE recurrence intervals vary along the Hikurangi margin; less frequent SSEs occur in the southern part of the margin. The periodicity of SSEs also changes along strike. SSEs in the northern part of the margin occur more regularly than those at the central part. Finally, we do not find conclusive evidence that 2016 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake had a lasting effect on SSE occurrence patterns. 

Abstract Earthquake focal mechanisms provide crucial information about subsurface fault geometry and stress orientations. Focal mechanisms are typically inferred through analysis of seismic radiation patterns, for example, using P-wave first-motion polarities, potentially in combination with S/P amplitude ratios, to identify nodal planes. The motivation for this procedure is well-founded, as P- and S-wave radiation patterns depend fundamentally on the fault orientation. However, in practice, S/P amplitude ratio measurements can be strongly influenced by factors that are unrelated to the source mechanism. In this study, I characterize several underappreciated issues with S/P amplitude ratio data that are relevant to focal mechanism inversion. The analysis combines synthetic tests with new waveform measurements from ∼64,000 ML≥1.0 earthquakes in Nevada and California. Key findings include that (1) the statistical distribution of S/P amplitude ratio data differs markedly in shape and width from the theoretical expectation, (2) S/P amplitude ratios decay systematically with source-station distance beyond ∼60 km or so, (3) this distance effect is more severe for smaller earthquakes than for larger ones, and (4) modifying the frequency band in which amplitudes are measured can shift the observed amplitude ratio distribution but does not significantly mitigate issues (1)–(3). Taken together, these findings indicate that S/P amplitude ratio measurements are influenced by differential path attenuation and signal-to-noise effects that are not accounted for with existing workflows. Using independent moment tensor solutions, I systematically test various strategies to incorporate S/P amplitude ratios into focal mechanism solutions. The best-performing strategies transform S/P amplitude data to better match the theoretical expectation. Overall, S/P amplitude ratio data appear helpful in improving a typical mechanism solution, but even with the best-performing strategies considered here, the inclusion of S/P amplitude ratio data is expected to hinder rather than improve the solution for a subset of events. 

Abstract The Rock Valley fault zone in southern Nevada has a notable history of seismic activity and is the site of a future direct comparison experiment of explosion and earthquake sources. This study aims to gain insight into regional tectonic processes by leveraging recent advances in seismic monitoring capabilities to elucidate the local stress regime. A crucial step in this investigation is the accurate determination of P-wave first-motion polarities, which play a vital role in resolving earthquake focal mechanisms of small earthquakes. We deploy a deep learning-based method for automatic determination of first-motion polarities to vastly expand the polarity dataset beyond what has been reviewed by human analysts. By the integrating P-wave polarities with new measurements of S/P amplitude ratios, we obtain robust focal mechanism estimates for 1306 earthquakes with a local magnitude of 1 and above occurring between 2010 and 2023 in southern Nevada. We then use the focal mechanism catalog to examine the regional stress orientation, confirming an overall trans-tensional stress regime with smaller scale complexities illuminated by individual earthquake sequences. These findings demonstrate how detailed analyses of small earthquakes can provide fundamental information for understanding earthquake processes in the region and inform future experiments at the Nevada National Security Site. 

Abstract In areas of induced seismicity, earthquakes can be triggered by stress changes due to fluid injection and static deformation from fault slip. Here we present a method to distinguish between injection‐driven and earthquake‐driven triggering of induced seismicity by combining a calibrated, fully coupled, poroelastic stress model of wastewater injection with interpretation of a machine learning algorithm trained on both earthquake catalog and modeled stress features. We investigate seismicity from Paradox Valley, Colorado as an ideal test case: a single, high‐pressure injector that has induced thousands of earthquakes since 1991. Using feature importance analysis, we find that injection‐driven earthquakes are approximately 225% of the total catalog but act as background events that can trigger subsequent aftershocks. Injection‐driven events also have distinct spatiotemporal clustering properties with a larger b‐value, closer proximity to the well, and earlier occurrence in the injection history. Generalization of our technique can help characterize triggering processes in other regions where induced seismicity occurs. 

Abstract Current earthquake forecasting approaches are mainly based on probabilistic assumptions, as earthquakes seem to occur randomly. Such apparent randomness can however be caused by deterministic chaos, rendering deterministic short‐term forecasts possible. Due to the short historical and instrumental record of earthquakes, chaos detection has proven challenging, but more frequently occurring slow slip events (SSE) are promising candidates to probe for determinism. Here, we characterize the SSE signatures obtained from GNSS position time series in the Hikurangi Subduction Zone (New Zealand) to investigate whether the seemingly random SSE occurrence is governed by chaotic determinism. We find evidence for deterministic chaos for stations recording shallow SSEs, suggesting that short‐term deterministic forecasting of SSEs, similar to weather forecasts, might indeed be possible over timescales of a few weeks. We anticipate that our findings could open the door for next‐generation SSE forecasting, adding new tools to existing probabilistic approaches. 

Abstract The effect of mantle plumes is secondary to that of subducting slabs for modern plate tectonics when considering plate driving forces. However, the impact of plumes on tectonics and planetary surface evolution may nonetheless have been significant. We use numerical mantle convection models in a 3‐D spherical chunk geometry with damage rheology to study some of the dynamics of plume‐slab interactions. Substantiating our earlier 2‐D results, we observe a range of interaction scenarios, and that the plume‐driven subduction terminations we had identified earlier persist in more realistic convective flow. We analyze the dynamics of plume affected subduction, including in terms of their geometry, frequency, and the overall effect of plumes on surface dynamics as a function of the fraction of internal to bottom heating. Some versions of such plume‐slab interplay may be relevant for geologic events, for example, for the inferred ∼183 Ma Karoo large igneous province formation and associated slab disruption. More recent examples may include the impingement of the Afar plume underneath Africa leading to disruption of the Hellenic slab, and the current complex structure imaged for the subduction of the Nazca plate under South America. Our results imply that plumes may play a significant role not just in kick‐starting plate tectonics, but also in major modifications of slab‐driven plate motions, including for the present‐day mantle. 

Abstract The potential for future earthquakes on faults is often inferred from inversions of geodetically derived surface velocities for locking on faults using kinematic models such as block models. This can be challenging in complex deforming zones with many closely spaced faults or where deformation is not readily described with block motions. Furthermore, surface strain rates are more directly related to coupling on faults than surface velocities. We present a methodology for estimating slip deficit rate directly from strain rate and apply it to New Zealand for the purpose of incorporating geodetic data in the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The strain rate inversions imply slightly higher slip deficit rates than the preferred geologic slip rates on sections of the major strike‐slip systems including the Alpine Fault, the Marlborough Fault System and the northern part of the North Island Fault System. Slip deficit rates are significantly lower than even the lowest geologic estimates on some strike‐slip faults in the southern North Island Fault System near Wellington. Over the entire plate boundary, geodetic slip deficit rates are systematically higher than geologic slip rates for faults slipping less than one mm/yr but lower on average for faults with slip rates between about 5 and 25 mm/yr. We show that 70%–80% of the total strain rate field can be attributed to elastic strain due to fault coupling. The remaining 20%–30% shows systematic spatial patterns of strain rate style that is often consistent with local geologic style of faulting. 

Abstract Earthquakes are clustered in space and time, with individual sequences composed of events linked by stress transfer and triggering mechanisms. On a global scale, variations in the productivity of earthquake sequences—a normalized measure of the number of triggered events—have been observed and associated with regional variations in tectonic setting. Here, we focus on resolving systematic variations in the productivity of crustal earthquake sequences in California and Nevada—the two most seismically active states in the western United States. We apply a well-tested nearest-neighbor algorithm to automatically extract earthquake sequence statistics from a unified 40 yr compilation of regional earthquake catalogs that is complete to M ∼ 2.5. We then compare earthquake sequence productivity to geophysical parameters that may influence earthquake processes, including heat flow, temperature at seismogenic depth, complexity of quaternary faulting, geodetic strain rates, depth to crystalline basement, and faulting style. We observe coherent spatial variations in sequence productivity, with higher values in the Walker Lane of eastern California and Nevada than along the San Andreas fault system in western California. The results illuminate significant correlations between productivity and heat flow, temperature, and faulting that contribute to the understanding and ability to forecast crustal earthquake sequences in the area. 

SUMMARY Analysis of tectonic and earthquake-cycle associated deformation of the crust can provide valuable insights into the underlying deformation processes including fault slip. How those processes are expressed at the surface depends on the lateral and depth variations of rock properties. The effect of such variations is often tested by forward models based on a priori geological or geophysical information. Here, we first develop a novel technique based on an open-source finite-element computational framework to invert geodetic constraints directly for heterogeneous media properties. We focus on the elastic, coseismic problem and seek to constrain variations in shear modulus and Poisson’s ratio, proxies for the effects of lithology and/or temperature and porous flow, respectively. The corresponding nonlinear inversion is implemented using adjoint-based optimization that efficiently reduces the cost function that includes the misfit between the calculated and observed displacements and a penalty term. We then extend our theoretical and numerical framework to simultaneously infer both heterogeneous Earth’s structure and fault slip from surface deformation. Based on a range of 2-D synthetic cases, we find that both model parameters can be satisfactorily estimated for the megathrust setting-inspired test problems considered. Within limits, this is the case even in the presence of noise and if the fault geometry is not perfectly known. Our method lays the foundation for a future reassessment of the information contained in increasingly data-rich settings, for example, geodetic GNSS constraints for large earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku-oki M9 event, or distributed deformation along plate boundaries as constrained from InSAR. 

ABSTRACT As part of the 2022 revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022), deformation models were constructed for the upper plate faults and subduction interfaces that impact ground-shaking hazard in New Zealand. These models provide the locations, geometries, and slip rates of the earthquake-producing faults in the NZ NSHM 2022. For upper plate faults, two deformation models were developed: a geologic model derived directly from the fault geometries and geologic slip rates in the NZ Community Fault Model version 1.0 (NZ CFM v.1.0); and a geodetic model that uses the same faults and fault geometries and derives fault slip-deficit rates by inverting geodetic strain rates for back slip on those specified faults. The two upper plate deformation models have similar total moment rates, but the geodetic model has higher slip rates on low-slip-rate faults, and the geologic model has higher slip rates on higher-slip-rate faults. Two deformation models are developed for the Hikurangi–Kermadec subduction interface. The Hikurangi–Kermadec geometry is a linear blend of the previously published interface models. Slip-deficit rates on the Hikurangi portion of the deformation model are updated from the previously published block models, and two end member models are developed to represent the alternate hypotheses that the interface is either frictionally locked or creeping at the trench. The locking state in the Kermadec portion is less well constrained, and a single slip-deficit rate model is developed based on plate convergence rate and coupling considerations. This single Kermadec realization is blended with each of the two Hikurangi slip-deficit rate models to yield two overall Hikurangi–Kermadec deformation models. The Puysegur subduction interface deformation model is based on geometry taken directly from the NZ CFM v.1.0, and a slip-deficit rate derived from published geodetic plate convergence rate and interface coupling estimates.