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  1. Abstract

    The radiative cooling rate in the tropical upper troposphere is expected to increase as climate warms. Since the tropics are approximately in radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE), this implies an increase in the convective heating rate, which is the sum of the latent heating rate and the eddy heat flux convergence. We examine the impact of these changes on the vertical profile of cloud ice amount in cloud-resolving simulations of RCE. Three simulations are conducted: a control run, a warming run, and an experimental run in which there is no warming but a temperature forcing is imposed to mimic the warming-induced increase in radiative cooling. Surface warming causes a reduction in cloud fraction at all upper-tropospheric temperature levels but an increase in the ice mixing ratio within deep convective cores. The experimental run has more cloud ice than the warming run at fixed temperature despite the fact that their latent heating rates are equal, which suggests that the efficiency of latent heating by cloud ice increases with warming. An analytic expression relating the ice-related latent heating rate to a number of other factors is derived and used to understand the model results. This reveals that the increase in latent heating efficiency is driven mostly by 1) the migration of isotherms to lower pressure and 2) a slight warming of the top of the convective layer. These physically robust changes act to reduce the residence time of ice at any particular temperature level, which tempers the response of the mean cloud ice profile to warming.

    Significance Statement

    Here we examine how the amount of condensed ice in part of the atmosphere—the tropical upper troposphere (UT)—responds to global warming. In the UT, the energy released during ice formation is balanced by the emission of radiation to space. This emission will strengthen with warming, suggesting that there will also be more ice. Using a model of the tropical atmosphere, we find that the increase in ice amount is mitigated by a reduction in the amount of time ice spends in the UT. This could have important implications for the cloud response to global warming, and future work should focus on how these changes are manifested across the distribution of convective cloud types.

     
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  2. Abstract

    This study examines how the congestus mode of tropical convection is expressed in numerical simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE). We draw insights from the ensemble of cloud‐resolving models participating in the RCE Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) and from a new ensemble of two‐dimensional RCE simulations. About half of the RCEMIP models produce a congestus circulation that is distinct from the deep and shallow modes. In both ensembles, the congestus circulation strengthens with large‐scale convective aggregation, and in the 2D ensemble this comes at the expense of the shallow circulation centered at the top of the boundary layer. Congestus invigoration occurs because aggregation dries out the upper troposphere, which allows moist congestus outflow to undergo strong radiative cooling. The cooling generates divergence that promotes continued congestus overturning (a positive feedback). This mechanism is fundamentally similar to the driving of shallow circulations by radiative cooling at the top of the surface boundary layer. Aggregation and congestus invigoration are also associated with enhanced static stability throughout the troposphere, but a modeling experiment shows that enhanced stability is not necessary for congestus invigoration; rather, invigoration itself contributes to the stability increase via its impact on the vertical profile of radiative cooling. Changes in entrainment cooling are also found to play an important role in stability enhancement, as has been suggested previously. When present, congestus circulations have a large impact on the mean RCE atmospheric state; for this reason, their inconsistent representation in models and their impact on the real tropical atmosphere warrant further scrutiny.

     
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  3. Abstract

    Warming experiments with a uniformly insolated, non‐rotating climate model with a slab ocean are conducted by increasing the solar irradiance. As the global mean surface temperature is varied across the range from 289 to 319K, the sea surface temperature (SST) contrast at first declines, then increases then declines again. Increasing SST contrast with global warming is associated with reduced climate sensitivity, while decreasing SST contrast is associated with enhanced climate sensitivity. The changing SST contrast and climate sensitivity are both related fundamentally to the effect of water vapor on clear‐sky radiative cooling. The clouds in the convective region are always more reflective than those in the subsiding region and so always act to reduce the SST contrast. At lower temperatures between 289 and 297 K the shortwave suppression of SST contrast increases faster than the longwave enhancement of SST contrast. At warmer temperatures between 297 and 309 K the longwave enhancement of SST contrast with warming is stronger than the shortwave suppression of SST contrast, so that the SST contrast increases. Above 309 K the greenhouse effect in the subsiding region begins to grow, the SST contrast declines and the climate sensitivity increases. The transitions at 297 and 309 K can be related to the increasing vapor pressure path with warming. The mass circulation rate between warm and cool regions consists of shallow and deep cells. Both cells increase in strength with SST contrast. The lower cell remains connected to the surface, while the upper cell rises to maintain a roughly constant temperature.

     
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  4. Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 16, 2024
  5. Since about 1980, the tropical Pacific has been anomalously cold, while the broader tropics have warmed. This has caused anomalous weather in midlatitudes as well as a reduction in the apparent sensitivity of the climate associated with enhanced low-cloud abundance over the cooler waters of the eastern tropical Pacific. Recent modeling work has shown that cooler temperatures over the Southern Ocean around Antarctica can lead to cooler temperatures over the eastern tropical Pacific. Here we suggest that surface wind anomalies associated with the Antarctic ozone hole can cause cooler temperatures over the Southern Ocean that extend into the tropics. We use the short-term variability of the Southern Annular Mode of zonal wind variability to show an association between surface zonal wind variations over the Southern Ocean, cooling over the Southern Ocean, and cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific. This suggests that the cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific may be associated with the onset of the Antarctic ozone hole. 
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  6. Abstract The vertical profile of clear-sky radiative cooling places important constraints on the vertical structure of convection and associated clouds. Simple theory using the cooling-to-space approximation is presented to indicate that the cooling rate in the upper troposphere should increase with surface temperature. The theory predicts how the cooling rate depends on lapse rate in an atmosphere where relative humidity remains approximately a fixed function of temperature. Radiative cooling rate is insensitive to relative humidity because of cancellation between the emission and transmission of radiation by water vapor. This theory is tested with one-dimensional radiative transfer calculations and radiative-convective equilibrium simulations. For climate simulations that produce an approximately moist adiabatic lapse rate, the radiative cooling profile becomes increasingly top-heavy with increasing surface temperature. If the temperature profile warms more slowly than a moist adiabatic profile in mid-troposphere, then the cooling rate in the upper troposphere is reduced and that in the lower troposphere is increased. This has important implications for convection, clouds and associated deep and shallow circulations. 
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