Search for: All records

Abstract A global climate model is run in radiative‐convective equilibrium including a slab ocean with a specified ocean heat transport analogous to what is seen in the tropical Pacific. The insolation is varied to create a range of global mean equilibrium temperatures. These results are compared with experiments that do not include a specified ocean heat transport. The ocean heat transport cools the coldest Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and increases the SST contrast. The warmest SSTs change much less with the addition of ocean heat transport because increased atmospheric transport moves energy away from the warm region. The ocean heat transport also increases the efficiency of cooling by outgoing longwave radiation in the subsiding region, allowing for a cooler global mean SST. At colder global mean temperatures ocean heat transport creates a high‐contrast state in which abundant low clouds play a strong role in maintaining the SST contrast. This high‐contrast state abruptly transitions to a warmer, low‐SST‐contrast state as the climate is warmed by increasing insolation. At warmer temperatures comparable to the current tropics, the low cloud response is less important than longwave emission in maintaining the SST contrast. Although ocean heat transport cools the climate, it does not much affect the sensitivity of the model climate to increasing insolation. Comparison of the model results to ERA5 reanalysis data shows that mechanisms responsible for the SST distribution and energy budget changes in this idealized model are analogous to variability that occurs over the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

Abstract We describe internal, low‐frequency variability in a 21‐year simulation with a cloud‐resolving model. The model domain is the length of the equatorial Pacific and includes a slab ocean, which permits coherent cycles of sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric convection, and the convectively coupled circulation. The warming phase of the cycle is associated with near‐uniform SST, less organized convection, and sparse low cloud cover, while the cooling phase exhibits strong SST gradients, highly organized convection, and enhanced low cloudiness. Both phases are quasi‐stable but, on long timescales, are ultimately susceptible to instabilities resulting in rapid phase transitions. The internal cycle is leveraged to understand the factors controlling the strength and structure of the tropical overturning circulation and the stratification of the tropical troposphere. The overturning circulation is strongly modulated by convective organization, with SST playing a lesser role. When convection is highly organized, the circulation is weaker and more bottom‐heavy. Alternatively, tropospheric stratification depends on both convective organization and SST, depending on the vertical level. SST‐driven variability dominates aloft while organization‐driven variability dominates at lower levels. A similar pattern is found in ERA5 reanalysis of the equatorial Pacific. The relationship between convective organization and stratification is explicated using a simple entraining plume model. The results highlight the importance of convective organization for tropical variability and lay a foundation for future work using coupled, idealized models that explicitly resolve convection. 

Abstract The radiative cooling rate in the tropical upper troposphere is expected to increase as climate warms. Since the tropics are approximately in radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE), this implies an increase in the convective heating rate, which is the sum of the latent heating rate and the eddy heat flux convergence. We examine the impact of these changes on the vertical profile of cloud ice amount in cloud-resolving simulations of RCE. Three simulations are conducted: a control run, a warming run, and an experimental run in which there is no warming but a temperature forcing is imposed to mimic the warming-induced increase in radiative cooling. Surface warming causes a reduction in cloud fraction at all upper-tropospheric temperature levels but an increase in the ice mixing ratio within deep convective cores. The experimental run has more cloud ice than the warming run at fixed temperature despite the fact that their latent heating rates are equal, which suggests that the efficiency of latent heating by cloud ice increases with warming. An analytic expression relating the ice-related latent heating rate to a number of other factors is derived and used to understand the model results. This reveals that the increase in latent heating efficiency is driven mostly by 1) the migration of isotherms to lower pressure and 2) a slight warming of the top of the convective layer. These physically robust changes act to reduce the residence time of ice at any particular temperature level, which tempers the response of the mean cloud ice profile to warming. Significance StatementHere we examine how the amount of condensed ice in part of the atmosphere—the tropical upper troposphere (UT)—responds to global warming. In the UT, the energy released during ice formation is balanced by the emission of radiation to space. This emission will strengthen with warming, suggesting that there will also be more ice. Using a model of the tropical atmosphere, we find that the increase in ice amount is mitigated by a reduction in the amount of time ice spends in the UT. This could have important implications for the cloud response to global warming, and future work should focus on how these changes are manifested across the distribution of convective cloud types. 

Abstract This study examines how the congestus mode of tropical convection is expressed in numerical simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE). We draw insights from the ensemble of cloud‐resolving models participating in the RCE Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) and from a new ensemble of two‐dimensional RCE simulations. About half of the RCEMIP models produce a congestus circulation that is distinct from the deep and shallow modes. In both ensembles, the congestus circulation strengthens with large‐scale convective aggregation, and in the 2D ensemble this comes at the expense of the shallow circulation centered at the top of the boundary layer. Congestus invigoration occurs because aggregation dries out the upper troposphere, which allows moist congestus outflow to undergo strong radiative cooling. The cooling generates divergence that promotes continued congestus overturning (a positive feedback). This mechanism is fundamentally similar to the driving of shallow circulations by radiative cooling at the top of the surface boundary layer. Aggregation and congestus invigoration are also associated with enhanced static stability throughout the troposphere, but a modeling experiment shows that enhanced stability is not necessary for congestus invigoration; rather, invigoration itself contributes to the stability increase via its impact on the vertical profile of radiative cooling. Changes in entrainment cooling are also found to play an important role in stability enhancement, as has been suggested previously. When present, congestus circulations have a large impact on the mean RCE atmospheric state; for this reason, their inconsistent representation in models and their impact on the real tropical atmosphere warrant further scrutiny. 

Abstract Warming experiments with a uniformly insolated, non‐rotating climate model with a slab ocean are conducted by increasing the solar irradiance. As the global mean surface temperature is varied across the range from 289 to 319K, the sea surface temperature (SST) contrast at first declines, then increases then declines again. Increasing SST contrast with global warming is associated with reduced climate sensitivity, while decreasing SST contrast is associated with enhanced climate sensitivity. The changing SST contrast and climate sensitivity are both related fundamentally to the effect of water vapor on clear‐sky radiative cooling. The clouds in the convective region are always more reflective than those in the subsiding region and so always act to reduce the SST contrast. At lower temperatures between 289 and 297 K the shortwave suppression of SST contrast increases faster than the longwave enhancement of SST contrast. At warmer temperatures between 297 and 309 K the longwave enhancement of SST contrast with warming is stronger than the shortwave suppression of SST contrast, so that the SST contrast increases. Above 309 K the greenhouse effect in the subsiding region begins to grow, the SST contrast declines and the climate sensitivity increases. The transitions at 297 and 309 K can be related to the increasing vapor pressure path with warming. The mass circulation rate between warm and cool regions consists of shallow and deep cells. Both cells increase in strength with SST contrast. The lower cell remains connected to the surface, while the upper cell rises to maintain a roughly constant temperature. 

Abstract. Tropical cirrus clouds play a critical role in the climate system and are a major source of uncertainty in our understanding of global warming. Tropical cirrus are affected by processes spanning a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, from ice microphysics on cloud scales to mesoscale convective organization and planetary wave dynamics. This complexity makes tropical cirrus clouds notoriously difficult to model and has left many important questions stubbornly unanswered. At the same time, their multi-scale nature makes them well positioned to benefit from the rise of global, high-resolution simulations of Earth's atmosphere and a growing abundance of remotely sensed and in situ observations. Rapid progress requires coordinated efforts to take advantage of these modern computational and observational abilities. In this Opinion, we review recent progress in cirrus studies, highlight important questions that remain unanswered, and discuss promising paths forward. We find that significant progress has been made in understanding the life cycle of convectively generated ``anvil cirrus and how their macrophysical properties respond to large-scale controls. On the other hand, much work remains to be done to understand how small-scale anvil processes and the climatological anvil radiative effect may respond to global warming. Thin, in situ-formed cirrus are now known to be closely tied to the thermal structure and humidity of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), but uncertainty at the microphysical scale remains a significant barrier to understanding how these clouds regulate the TTL moisture and temperature budgets, as well as the mixing ratio of water vapor entering the stratosphere. Model representation of ice-nucleating particles, water vapor supersaturation, and ice depositional growth continue to pose great challenges to cirrus modeling. We believe that major advances in the understanding of tropical cirrus can be made through a combination of cross-tool synthesis and cross-scale studies conducted by cross-disciplinary research teams. 

Since about 1980, the tropical Pacific has been anomalously cold, while the broader tropics have warmed. This has caused anomalous weather in midlatitudes as well as a reduction in the apparent sensitivity of the climate associated with enhanced low-cloud abundance over the cooler waters of the eastern tropical Pacific. Recent modeling work has shown that cooler temperatures over the Southern Ocean around Antarctica can lead to cooler temperatures over the eastern tropical Pacific. Here we suggest that surface wind anomalies associated with the Antarctic ozone hole can cause cooler temperatures over the Southern Ocean that extend into the tropics. We use the short-term variability of the Southern Annular Mode of zonal wind variability to show an association between surface zonal wind variations over the Southern Ocean, cooling over the Southern Ocean, and cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific. This suggests that the cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific may be associated with the onset of the Antarctic ozone hole. 

Abstract The vertical profile of clear-sky radiative cooling places important constraints on the vertical structure of convection and associated clouds. Simple theory using the cooling-to-space approximation is presented to indicate that the cooling rate in the upper troposphere should increase with surface temperature. The theory predicts how the cooling rate depends on lapse rate in an atmosphere where relative humidity remains approximately a fixed function of temperature. Radiative cooling rate is insensitive to relative humidity because of cancellation between the emission and transmission of radiation by water vapor. This theory is tested with one-dimensional radiative transfer calculations and radiative-convective equilibrium simulations. For climate simulations that produce an approximately moist adiabatic lapse rate, the radiative cooling profile becomes increasingly top-heavy with increasing surface temperature. If the temperature profile warms more slowly than a moist adiabatic profile in mid-troposphere, then the cooling rate in the upper troposphere is reduced and that in the lower troposphere is increased. This has important implications for convection, clouds and associated deep and shallow circulations.