There is currently no theory for the rate of tropical cyclone (TC) formation given a particular climate, so our understanding of the relationship between TC frequency and large‐scale environmental factors is largely empirical. Here, we explore the sensitivity of TC formation and intensification rates to climate warming in a series of highly idealized cloud‐permitting simulations, in which TCs form spontaneously from a base state of rest on an
Warming experiments with a uniformly insolated, non‐rotating climate model with a slab ocean are conducted by increasing the solar irradiance. As the global mean surface temperature is varied across the range from 289 to 319K, the sea surface temperature (SST) contrast at first declines, then increases then declines again. Increasing SST contrast with global warming is associated with reduced climate sensitivity, while decreasing SST contrast is associated with enhanced climate sensitivity. The changing SST contrast and climate sensitivity are both related fundamentally to the effect of water vapor on clear‐sky radiative cooling. The clouds in the convective region are always more reflective than those in the subsiding region and so always act to reduce the SST contrast. At lower temperatures between 289 and 297 K the shortwave suppression of SST contrast increases faster than the longwave enhancement of SST contrast. At warmer temperatures between 297 and 309 K the longwave enhancement of SST contrast with warming is stronger than the shortwave suppression of SST contrast, so that the SST contrast increases. Above 309 K the greenhouse effect in the subsiding region begins to grow, the SST contrast declines and the climate sensitivity increases. The transitions at 297 and 309 K can be related to the increasing vapor pressure path with warming. The mass circulation rate between warm and cool regions consists of shallow and deep cells. Both cells increase in strength with SST contrast. The lower cell remains connected to the surface, while the upper cell rises to maintain a roughly constant temperature.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2124496
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10446013
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Volume:
- 127
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 2169-897X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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