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  1. Free, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2025
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  4. Path-specific effect analysis is a powerful tool in causal inference. This paper provides a definition of causal counterfactual path-specific importance score for the structural causal model (SCM). Different from existing path-specific effect definitions, which focus on the population level, the score defined in this paper can quantify the impact of a decision variable on an outcome variable along a specific pathway at the individual level. Moreover, the score has many desirable properties, including following the chain rule and being consistent. Finally, this paper presents an algorithm that can leverage these properties and find the k-most important paths with the highest importance scores in a causal graph effectively.

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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 1, 2024
  5. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is arguably one of the major health and economic challenges in our society. A key aspect of tackling AMR is rapid and accurate detection of the emergence and spread of AMR in food animal production, which requires routine AMR surveillance. However, AMR detection can be expensive and time-consuming considering the growth rate of the bacteria and the most commonly used analytical procedures, such as Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) testing. To mitigate this issue, we utilized machine learning to predict the future AMR burden of bacterial pathogens. We collected pathogen and antimicrobial data from >600 farms in the United States from 2010 to 2021 to generate AMR time series data. Our prediction focused on five bacterial pathogens (Escherichia coli, Streptococcus suis, Salmonella sp., Pasteurella multocida, andBordetella bronchiseptica). We found that Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) outperformed five baselines, including Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We hope this study provides valuable tools to predict the AMR burden not only of the pathogens assessed in this study but also of other bacterial pathogens.

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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 11, 2024
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  8. Chaudhuri, Kamalika ; Jegelka, Stefanie ; Song, Le ; Szepesvari, Csaba ; Niu, Gang ; Sabato, Sivan (Ed.)
    Traditional causal discovery methods mainly focus on estimating causal relations among measured variables, but in many real-world problems, such as questionnaire-based psychometric studies, measured variables are generated by latent variables that are causally related. Accordingly, this paper investigates the problem of discovering the hidden causal variables and estimating the causal structure, including both the causal relations among latent variables and those between latent and measured variables. We relax the frequently-used measurement assumption and allow the children of latent variables to be latent as well, and hence deal with a specific type of latent hierarchical causal structure. In particular, we define a minimal latent hierarchical structure and show that for linear non-Gaussian models with the minimal latent hierarchical structure, the whole structure is identifiable from only the measured variables. Moreover, we develop a principled method to identify the structure by testing for Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) conditions in specific ways. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. 
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