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ABSTRACT With novel ocean conditions rapidly appearing as the result of climate change, basing decisions about fisheries and other ocean activities on historical conditions is no longer tenable. There is instead a widespread need for shifting ecological baselines to more effectively guide decisions into the future. What has not been as widely recognised is that the relevant timescales differ substantially across ocean‐related decisions, from lead times of hours to decades depending on the decision being made, and that this range necessitates a matching range of ecological forecast products across similar timescales. At the moment, a predictability gap exists at intermediate timescales, from multi‐annual to multi‐decadal forecasts. Because most fisheries and many other ocean activities rely on biological conditions like fish abundance or distribution, the ecological inertia of organismal growth, generational turnover, movement, and food web dynamics can help push ecological forecasts further across this gap. To realise this potential for more effective and usable ecological forecasts, coordinated research and implementation at the intersection of biology, climate science, social science, and decision‐making is needed. These efforts will be critical for forecasting shifting ecosystem baselines and sustaining fisheries, ocean ecosystems, and the ocean economy in the coming decades of rapid change. 

Abstract Planning of marine areas has spread widely over the past two decades to support sustainable ocean management and governance. However, to succeed in a changing ocean, marine spatial planning (MSP) must be ‘climate-smart’— integrating climate-related knowledge, being flexible to changing conditions, and supporting climate actions. While the need for climate-smart MSP has been globally recognized, at a practical level, marine managers and planners require further guidance on how to put it into action. Here, we suggest ten key components that, if well-integrated, would promote the development and implementation of sustainable, equitable, climate-smart MSP initiatives around the globe. 

Synopsis Over recent years, recognition of the need to develop climate-smart marine spatial planning (MSP) has gained momentum globally. In this roundtable discussion, we use a question-and-answer format to leverage diverse perspectives and voices involved in the study of sustainable MSP and marine conservation under global environmental and social change. We intend this dialogue to serve as a stepping stone toward developing ocean planning initiatives that are sustainable, equitable, and climate-resilient around the globe. 

Abstract Global change is impacting biodiversity across all habitats on earth. New selection pressures from changing climatic conditions and other anthropogenic activities are creating heterogeneous ecological and evolutionary responses across many species' geographic ranges. Yet we currently lack standardised and reproducible tools to effectively predict the resulting patterns in species vulnerability to declines or range changes.We developed an informatic toolbox that integrates ecological, environmental and genomic data and analyses (environmental dissimilarity, species distribution models, landscape connectivity, neutral and adaptive genetic diversity, genotype‐environment associations and genomic offset) to estimate population vulnerability. In our toolbox, functions and data structures are coded in a standardised way so that it is applicable to any species or geographic region where appropriate data are available, for example individual or population sampling and genomic datasets (e.g. RAD‐seq, ddRAD‐seq, whole genome sequencing data) representing environmental variation across the species geographic range.To demonstrate multi‐species applicability, we apply our toolbox to three georeferenced genomic datasets for co‐occurring East African spiny reed frogs (Afrixalus fornasini, A. delicatusandA. sylvaticus) to predict their population vulnerability, as well as demonstrating that range loss projections based on adaptive variation can be accurately reproduced from a previous study using data for two European bat species (Myotis escaleraiandM. crypticus).Our framework sets the stage for large scale, multi‐species genomic datasets to be leveraged in a novel climate change vulnerability framework to quantify intraspecific differences in genetic diversity, local adaptation, range shifts and population vulnerability based on exposure, sensitivity and landscape barriers. 

Climate change is altering species’ distributions globally. Increasing frequency of extreme weather and climate events (EWCEs) is one of the hallmarks of climate change. Despite species redistribution being widely studied in response to longterm climatic trends, the contribution of EWCEs to range shifts is not well understood. We outline how EWCEs can trigger rapid and unexpected range boundary fluctuations by impacting dispersal, establishment, and survival. Whether these mechanisms cause temporary or persistent range shifts depends on the spatiotemporal context and exposure to EWCEs. Using the increasing availability of data and statistical tools to examine EWCE impacts at fine spatiotemporal resolutions on species redistribution will be critical for informing conservation management of ecologically, economically, and culturally important species. 

Climate change is already leaving a broad footprint of impacts on biodiversity, from an individual caterpillar emerging earlier in spring to an entire plant community migrating poleward. Despite the various modes of how species are on the move, we primarily document shifting species along only one gradient (e.g., latitude or phenology) and along one dimension (space or time). Here we present a unifying framework for integrating the study of species on the move over space and time and from micro to macro scales. Future conservation planning and natural resource management will depend on our ability to use this framework to improve understanding, attribution, and prediction of species on the move. 

Abstract The offshore windfarm industry has great potential for sustainable energy but requires space. The ability of fisheries to harvest within these windfarms varies. This has created a conflict between these two industries and discussions are hampered by differing approaches to the marine environment, a lack of understanding of what each industries requires, the significant money at stake, and the values the public place on marine conservation. To characterize, standardize, and quantify the scientific data addressing these concerns requires a framework. The framework should categorize data on spatial scales of 1 cm2 to 1 km2 (individual turbines/fishing vessels), 1–1000 km2 (companies), and >1000 km2 (regions), and by their ecological, economic, cultural, and institutional impacts. The framework should be repeated over temporal scales of the windfarm: pre-development (1–3 years), construction (1–2 years), post-construction (20–40 years), and decommission. Balancing the metrics used to describe the two industries will allow people to communicate clearly in an organized systematic way, hopefully resulting in a continuing supply of sustainable sea food and renewable energy to an increasingly hungry world.