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Abstract BackgroundThe global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. ResultsRespondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. ConclusionThe influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities. 

Abstract Herbivores and fire are important consumers of plant biomass that influence vegetation structure, nutrient cycling, and biodiversity globally. Departures from historic biomass consumption patterns due to wild herbivore losses, livestock proliferation, and altered fire regimes can have critical ecological consequences. We set out to (i) understand how consumer dominance and prevalence responded to spatial and temporal moisture gradients in Holocene North America and (ii) examine how past and present consumer dominance patterns in North America compare to less altered consumer regimes of modern Sub-Saharan Africa. We developed long-term records of bison abundance and biomass burning in Holocene midcontinent North America and compared these records to reconstructions of moisture availability and vegetation structure. We used these reconstructions to characterize bison and fire prevalence across associated moisture and vegetation gradients. We found that bison herbivory dominated biomass consumption in dry settings whereas fire dominated in wetter environments. Historical distributions of herbivory and burning in midcontinent North America resemble those of contemporary Sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting disturbance feedbacks and interactions regulate long-term consumer dynamics. Comparisons of consumer dynamics in contemporary North America with Holocene North America and Sub-Saharan Africa also reveal that fire is functionally absent from regions where it was once common, with profound ecological implications. 

Abstract Interactions between vegetation and sediment in post‐fire landscapes play a critical role in sediment connectivity. Prior research has focused on the effects of vegetation removal from hillslopes, but little attention has been paid to the effects of coarse woody debris (CWD) added to the forest floor following fires. We investigate the impacts of CWD on hillslope sediment storage in post‐fire environments. First, we present a new conceptual model, identifying “active” storage scenarios where sediment is trapped upslope of fire‐produced debris such as logs, and additional “passive” storage scenarios including the reduced effectiveness of tree‐throw due to burnt roots and snapped stems. Second, we use tilt table experiments to test controls on sediment storage capacity. Physical modeling suggests storage varies nonlinearly with log orientation and hillslope gradient, and the maximum storage capacity of log barriers in systems with high sediment fluxes likely exceeds estimates that assume simple sediment pile geometries. Last, we calculate hillslope sediment storage capacity in a burned catchment in southwest Montana by combining high‐resolution topographic data and digitization of over 5000 downed logs from aerial imagery. We estimate that from 3500–14 000 m³of sediment was potentially stored upslope of logs. These estimates assume that all downed logs store sediment, a process that is likely temporally dynamic as storage capacity evolves with CWD decay. Our results highlight the role that CWD plays in limiting rapid sediment movement in recently burned systems. Using a range of potential soil production rates (50–100 mm/ky), CWD would buffer the downslope transport of ~35–280 years of soil produced across the landscape, indicating that fire‐produced CWD may serve as an important source of sediment disconnectivity in catchments. These results suggest that disturbance events have previously unaccounted‐for mechanisms of increasing hillslope sediment storage that should be incorporated into models of sediment connectivity. 

Climate-driven changes in high-elevation forest distribution and reductions in snow and ice cover have major implications for ecosystems and global water security. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the Rocky Mountains (United States), recent melting of a high-elevation (3,091 m asl) ice patch exposed a mature stand of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) trees, located ~180 m in elevation above modern treeline, that date to the mid-Holocene (c. 5,950 to 5,440 cal y BP). Here, we used this subfossil wood record to develop tree-ring-based temperature estimates for the upper-elevation climate conditions that resulted in ancient forest establishment and growth and the subsequent regional ice-patch growth and downslope shift of treeline. Results suggest that mid-Holocene forest establishment and growth occurred under warm-season (May-Oct) mean temperatures of 6.2 °C (±0.2 °C), until a multicentury cooling anomaly suppressed temperatures below 5.8 °C, resulting in stand mortality by c. 5,440 y BP. Transient climate model simulations indicate that regional cooling was driven by changes in summer insolation and Northern Hemisphere volcanism. The initial cooling event was followed centuries later (c. 5,100 y BP) by sustained Icelandic volcanic eruptions that forced a centennial-scale 1.0 °C summer cooling anomaly and led to rapid ice-patch growth and preservation of the trees. With recent warming (c. 2000–2020 CE), warm-season temperatures now equal and will soon exceed those of the mid-Holocene period of high treeline. It is likely that perennial ice cover will again disappear from the region, and treeline may expand upslope so long as plant-available moisture and disturbance are not limiting. 

After 4.5 billion years as an evolving and dynamic planet, the Earth continues to evolve but with human‐altered dynamics. Earth scientists have special opportunities and responsibilities to accelerate our understanding of Earth's changes that are transforming our most remarkable home. 

Molecular biomarkers preserved in lake sediments are increasingly used to develop records of past organism occurrence. When linked with traditional paleoecological methods, analysis of molecular biomarkers can yield new insights into the roles of herbivores and other animals in long-term ecosystem dynamics. We sought to determine whether fecal steroids in lake sediments could be used to reconstruct past ungulate use and dominant taxa in a small catchment in northern Yellowstone National Park. To do so, we characterized the fecal steroid profiles of a selection of North American ungulates historically present in the Yellowstone region (bison, elk, moose, mule deer, and pronghorn) and compared them with those of sediments from a small lake in the Yellowstone Northern Range. Analysis of a set of fecal steroids from herbivore dung (Δ⁵-sterols, 5α-stanols, 5β-stanols, epi5β-stanols, stanones, and bile acids) differentiated moose, pronghorn, and mule deer, whereas bison and elk were partially differentiated. Our results show that bison and/or elk were the primary ungulates in the watershed over the pastc. 2300 years. Fecal steroid influxes reached historically unprecedented levels during the early and middle 20^thcentury, possibly indicating high local use by ungulates. Comparison of fecal steroid influxes with pollen and diatom data suggests that elevated ungulate presence may have contributed to decreased forage taxa (Poaceae,Artemisia, andSalix), relative to long-term averages, and possibly increased lake production. Our results reflect past change within a single watershed, and extending this approach to a network of sites could provide much-needed information on past herbivore communities, use, and environmental influences in Yellowstone National Park and elsewhere. 

Growing season temperatures play a crucial role in controlling treeline elevation at regional to global scales. However, understanding of treeline dynamics in response to long-term changes in temperature is limited. In this study, we analyze pollen, plant macrofossils, and charcoal preserved in organic layers within a 10,400-year-old ice patch and in sediment from a 6000-year-old wetland located above present-day treeline in the Beartooth Mountains, Wyoming, to explore the relationship between Holocene climate variability and shifts in treeline elevation. Pollen data indicate a lower-than-present treeline between 9000 and 6200 cal yr BP during the warm, dry summer and cold winter conditions of the early Holocene. Increases in arboreal pollen at 6200 cal yr BP suggest an upslope treeline expansion when summers became cooler and wetter. A possible hiatus in the wetland record at ca. 4200–3000 cal yr BP suggests increased snow and ice cover at high elevations and a lowering of treeline. Treeline position continued to fluctuate with growing season warming and cooling during the late-Holocene. Periods of high fire activity correspond with times of increased woody cover at high elevations. The two records indicate that climate was an important driver of vegetation and treeline change during the Holocene. Early Holocene treeline was governed by moisture limitations, whereas late-Holocene treeline was sensitive to increases in growing season temperatures. Climate projections for the region suggest warmer temperatures could decrease effective growing season moisture at high elevations resulting in a reduction of treeline elevation.