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Climate-driven changes in high-elevation forest distribution and reductions in snow and ice cover have major implications for ecosystems and global water security. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the Rocky Mountains (United States), recent melting of a high-elevation (3,091 m asl) ice patch exposed a mature stand of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) trees, located ~180 m in elevation above modern treeline, that date to the mid-Holocene (c. 5,950 to 5,440 cal y BP). Here, we used this subfossil wood record to develop tree-ring-based temperature estimates for the upper-elevation climate conditions that resulted in ancient forest establishment and growth and the subsequent regional ice-patch growth and downslope shift of treeline. Results suggest that mid-Holocene forest establishment and growth occurred under warm-season (May-Oct) mean temperatures of 6.2 °C (±0.2 °C), until a multicentury cooling anomaly suppressed temperatures below 5.8 °C, resulting in stand mortality by c. 5,440 y BP. Transient climate model simulations indicate that regional cooling was driven by changes in summer insolation and Northern Hemisphere volcanism. The initial cooling event was followed centuries later (c. 5,100 y BP) by sustained Icelandic volcanic eruptions that forced a centennial-scale 1.0 °C summer cooling anomaly and led to rapid ice-patch growth and preservation of the trees. With recent warming (c. 2000–2020 CE), warm-season temperatures now equal and will soon exceed those of the mid-Holocene period of high treeline. It is likely that perennial ice cover will again disappear from the region, and treeline may expand upslope so long as plant-available moisture and disturbance are not limiting. 

The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities. 

After 4.5 billion years as an evolving and dynamic planet, the Earth continues to evolve but with human‐altered dynamics. Earth scientists have special opportunities and responsibilities to accelerate our understanding of Earth's changes that are transforming our most remarkable home. 

Molecular biomarkers preserved in lake sediments are increasingly used to develop records of past organism occurrence. When linked with traditional paleoecological methods, analysis of molecular biomarkers can yield new insights into the roles of herbivores and other animals in long-term ecosystem dynamics. We sought to determine whether fecal steroids in lake sediments could be used to reconstruct past ungulate use and dominant taxa in a small catchment in northern Yellowstone National Park. To do so, we characterized the fecal steroid profiles of a selection of North American ungulates historically present in the Yellowstone region (bison, elk, moose, mule deer, and pronghorn) and compared them with those of sediments from a small lake in the Yellowstone Northern Range. Analysis of a set of fecal steroids from herbivore dung (Δ⁵-sterols, 5α-stanols, 5β-stanols, epi5β-stanols, stanones, and bile acids) differentiated moose, pronghorn, and mule deer, whereas bison and elk were partially differentiated. Our results show that bison and/or elk were the primary ungulates in the watershed over the pastc. 2300 years. Fecal steroid influxes reached historically unprecedented levels during the early and middle 20^thcentury, possibly indicating high local use by ungulates. Comparison of fecal steroid influxes with pollen and diatom data suggests that elevated ungulate presence may have contributed to decreased forage taxa (Poaceae,Artemisia, andSalix), relative to long-term averages, and possibly increased lake production. Our results reflect past change within a single watershed, and extending this approach to a network of sites could provide much-needed information on past herbivore communities, use, and environmental influences in Yellowstone National Park and elsewhere. 

Growing season temperatures play a crucial role in controlling treeline elevation at regional to global scales. However, understanding of treeline dynamics in response to long-term changes in temperature is limited. In this study, we analyze pollen, plant macrofossils, and charcoal preserved in organic layers within a 10,400-year-old ice patch and in sediment from a 6000-year-old wetland located above present-day treeline in the Beartooth Mountains, Wyoming, to explore the relationship between Holocene climate variability and shifts in treeline elevation. Pollen data indicate a lower-than-present treeline between 9000 and 6200 cal yr BP during the warm, dry summer and cold winter conditions of the early Holocene. Increases in arboreal pollen at 6200 cal yr BP suggest an upslope treeline expansion when summers became cooler and wetter. A possible hiatus in the wetland record at ca. 4200–3000 cal yr BP suggests increased snow and ice cover at high elevations and a lowering of treeline. Treeline position continued to fluctuate with growing season warming and cooling during the late-Holocene. Periods of high fire activity correspond with times of increased woody cover at high elevations. The two records indicate that climate was an important driver of vegetation and treeline change during the Holocene. Early Holocene treeline was governed by moisture limitations, whereas late-Holocene treeline was sensitive to increases in growing season temperatures. Climate projections for the region suggest warmer temperatures could decrease effective growing season moisture at high elevations resulting in a reduction of treeline elevation. 

Abstract. Land cover governs the biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the land surface and atmosphere. Holocene vegetation-atmosphere interactions are of particular interest, both to understand the climate effects of intensifying human land use and as a possible explanation for the Holocene Conundrum, a widely studied mismatch between simulated and reconstructed temperatures. Progress has been limited by a lack of data-constrained, quantified, and consistently produced reconstructions of Holocene land cover change. As a contribution to the Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k Working Group, we present a new suite of land cover reconstructions with uncertainty for North America, based on a network of 1445 sedimentary pollen records and the REVEALS pollen-vegetation model coupled with a Bayesian spatial model. These spatially comprehensive land cover maps are then used to determine the pattern and magnitude of North American land cover changes at continental to regional scales. Early Holocene afforestation in North America was driven by rising temperatures and deglaciation, and this afforestation likely amplified early Holocene warming via the albedo effect. A continental-scale mid-Holocene peak in summergreen trees and shrubs (8.5 to 4 ka) is hypothesized to represent a positive and understudied feedback loop among insolation, temperature, and phenology seasonality. A last-millennium decrease in summergreen trees and shrubs with corresponding increases in open land likely was driven by a spatially varying combination of intensifying land use and neoglacial cooling. Land cover trends vary within and across regions, due to individualistic taxon-level responses to environmental change. Major species-level events, such as the mid-Holocene decline of eastern hemlock, may have altered regional climates. The substantial land-cover changes reconstructed here support the importance of biogeophysical vegetation feedbacks to Holocene climate dynamics. However, recent model experiments that invoke vegetation feedbacks to explain the Holocene Conundrum may have overestimated the land cover forcing by replacing Northern Hemisphere grasslands >30° N with forests; an ecosystem state that is not supported by these land cover reconstructions. These Holocene reconstructions for North America, along with similar LandCover6k products now available for other continents, serve the Earth system modeling community by providing better-constrained land cover scenarios and benchmarks for model evaluation, ultimately making it possible to better understand the regional- to global-scale processes driving Holocene land cover dynamics. 

Chemical changes in hot springs, as recorded by thermal waters and their deposits, provide a window into the evolution of the postglacial hydrothermal system of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field. Today, most hydrothermal travertine forms to the north and south of the ca. 631 ka Yellowstone caldera where groundwater flow through subsurface sedimentary rocks leads to calcite saturation at hot springs. In contrast, low-Ca rhyolites dominate the subsurface within the Yellowstone caldera, resulting in thermal waters that rarely deposit travertine. We investigated the timing and origin of five small travertine deposits in the Upper and Lower Geyser Basins to understand the conditions that allowed for travertine deposition. New 230Th-U dating, oxygen (δ18O), carbon (δ13C), and strontium (87Sr/86Sr) isotopic ratios, and elemental concentrations indicate that travertine deposits within the Yellowstone caldera formed during three main episodes that correspond broadly with known periods of wet climate: 13.9−13.6 ka, 12.2−9.5 ka, and 5.2−2.9 ka. Travertine deposition occurred in response to the influx of large volumes of cold meteoric water, which increased the rate of chemical weathering of surficial sediments and recharge into the hydrothermal system. The small volume of intracaldera travertine does not support a massive postglacial surge of CO2 within the Yellowstone caldera, nor was magmatic CO2 the catalyst for postglacial travertine deposition.