Search for: All records

Abstract The evolution of the spatial pattern of ocean surface warming affects global radiative feedback, yet different climate models provide varying estimates of future patterns. Paleoclimate data, especially from past warm periods, can help constrain future equilibrium warming patterns. By analyzing marine temperature records spanning the past 10 million years with a regression‐based technique that removes temporal dimensions, we extract long‐term ocean warming patterns and quantify relative sea surface temperature changes across the global ocean. This analysis revealed a distinct pattern of amplified warming that aligns with equilibrated model simulations under high CO₂conditions, yet differs from the transient warming pattern observed over the past 160 years. This paleodata‐model comparison allows us to identify models that better capture fundamental aspects of Earth's warming response, while suggesting how ocean heat uptake and circulation changes modify the development of warming patterns over time. By combining this paleo‐ocean warming pattern with equilibrated model simulations, we characterized the likely evolution of global ocean warming as the climate system approaches equilibrium. 

Abstract During the early‐to‐middle Miocene, global mean surface temperature (GMST) was approximately 8°C warmer than preindustrial, with a greater temperature increase in polar regions than the tropics. However, existing Miocene simulations underestimate this warmth, particularly in northern high latitudes. To address this discrepancy, we investigate the potential role of cloud phase. Using the Community Earth System Model, we conduct a paleoclimate sensitivity study focused on modifying ice nucleation and cloud phase partitioning schemes. These modifications increase the GMST, with a strong temperature rise in high latitudes and a muted increase in the tropics. These increases are driven by enhanced longwave cloud forcing, resulting from increased ice cloud amounts and cloud water content, and are amplified by water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the Arctic. Our study highlights that the improved parameterizations of cloud phase processes enhance models' capability to simulate Miocene high‐latitude warmth and potentially other warm climates. 

Abstract The Miocene (∼23–5 Ma) is a past warm epoch when global surface temperatures varied between ∼5 and 8°C warmer than today, and CO₂concentration was ∼400–800 ppm. The narrowing/closing of the tropical ocean gateways and widening of high‐latitude gateways throughout the Miocene is likely responsible for the evolution of the ocean's overturning circulation to its modern structure, though the mechanisms remain unclear. Here, we investigate early and middle Miocene ocean circulation in an opportunistic climate model intercomparison (MioMIP1), using 14 simulations with different paleogeography, CO₂, and vegetation. The strength of the Southern Ocean‐driven Meridional Overturning Circulation (SOMOC) bottom cell is similar in the Miocene and Pre‐Industrial (PI) but dominates the Miocene global MOC due to weaker Northern Hemisphere overturning. The Miocene Atlantic MOC (AMOC) is weaker than PI in all the simulations (by 2–21 Sv), possibly due to its connection with an Arctic that is considerably fresher than today. Deep overturning in the North Pacific (PMOC) is present in three simulations (∼5–10 Sv), of which two have a weaker AMOC, and one has a stronger AMOC (compared to its PMOC). Surface freshwater fluxes control northern overturning such that the basin with the least freshwater gain has stronger overturning. While the orography, which impacts runoff direction (Pacific vs. Atlantic), has an inconsistent impact on northern overturning across simulations, overall, features associated with the early Miocene—such as a lower Tibetan Plateau, the Rocky Mountains, and a deeper Panama Seaway—seem to favor PMOC over AMOC. 

Abstract The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has an annual mean location north of the equator today. The factors determining this location and the evolution to its modern state are actively debated. Here we investigate how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) influences the ITCZ during the early‐to‐middle Miocene. By conducting a sensitivity study with an open Canadian Arctic Archipelago gateway, we show that North Atlantic Deep‐Water formation strengthens the AMOC, in alignment with Miocene North Atlantic ventilation proxies. A vigorous AMOC increases northward Atlantic Ocean heat transport and cross‐equatorial atmospheric energy transport shifts southwards to compensate, pushing the ITCZ northwards. Our study supports AMOC development as a strong contributor to the ITCZ's northern location today. Existing proxy‐based interpretations of ITCZ history are too sparse to strongly confirm these results. We predict a strong in‐phase relationship between AMOC strength and ITCZ's northward location, which should be testable in high resolution paleoclimate records. 

Abstract The Miocene (23.03–5.33 Ma) is recognized as a period with close to modern‐day paleogeography, yet a much warmer climate. With large uncertainties in future hydroclimate projections, Miocene conditions illustrate a potential future analog for the Earth system. A recent opportunistic Miocene Model Intercomparison Project 1 (MioMIP1) focused on synthesizing published Miocene climate simulations and comparing them with available temperature reconstructions. Here, we build on this effort by analyzing the hydrological cycle response to Miocene forcings across early‐to‐middle (E2MMIO; 20.03–11.6 Ma) and middle‐to‐late Miocene (M2LMIO; 11.5–5.33 Ma) simulations with CO₂concentrations ranging from 200 to 850 ppm and providing a model‐data comparison against available precipitation reconstructions. We find global precipitation increases by ∼2.1 and 2.3% per degree of warming for E2MMIO and M2LMIO simulations, respectively. Models generally agree on a wetter than modern‐day tropics; mid and high‐latitude, however, do not agree on the sign of subtropical precipitation changes with warming. Global monsoon analysis suggests most monsoon regions, except the North American Monsoon, experience higher precipitation rates under warmer conditions. Model‐data comparison shows that mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models regardless of CO₂concentration, particularly in the mid‐ to high‐latitudes. This suggests that the models may not be (a) resolving key processes driving the hydrological cycle response to Miocene boundary conditions and/or (b) other boundary conditions or processes not considered here are critical to reproducing Miocene hydroclimate. This study highlights the challenges in modeling and reconstructing the Miocene hydrological cycle and serves as a baseline for future coordinated MioMIP efforts. 

Abstract While high latitude amplification is seen in modern observations, paleoclimate records, and climate modeling, better constraints on the magnitude and pattern of amplification would provide insights into the mechanisms that drive it, which remain actively debated. Here we present multi-proxy multi-site paleotemperature records over the last 10 million years from the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) – the warmest endmember of the global ocean that is uniquely important in the global radiative feedback change. These sea surface temperature records, based on lipid biomarkers and seawater Mg/Ca-adjusted foraminiferal Mg/Ca, unequivocally show warmer WPWP in the past, and a secular cooling over the last 10 million years. Compiling these data with existing records reveals a persistent, nearly stationary, extratropical response pattern in the Pacific in which high latitude (~50°N) temperatures increase by ~2.4° for each degree of WPWP warming. This relative warming pattern is also evident in model outputs of millennium-long climate simulations with quadrupling atmospheric CO₂, therefore providing a strong constraint on the future equilibrium response of the Earth System. 

This archived Paleoclimatology Study is available from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), under the World Data Service (WDS) for Paleoclimatology. The associated NCEI study type is Paleoceanography. The data include parameters of paleoceanography with a geographic location of Western Pacific Ocean. The time period coverage is from 12485 to 10 in calendar years before present (BP). See metadata information for parameter and study location details. Please cite this study when using the data.