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Abstract The prereversal enhancement (PRE) is a brief surge in upward plasma velocity in the evening equatorial ionosphere and a driver of equatorial spread‐F. This study reports the first PRE climatology from Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) data, exhibiting seasonal and longitudinal variability that is qualitatively consistent with results from two previous satellite missions. Previous missions, however, lacked the neutral wind observations to characterize their impact on the PRE. To quantitatively assess wind impacts, numerical experiments are performed with a standalone dynamo solver using winds from the TIEGCM‐ICON, which is driven from below by observed tides. To quantify the impact of solar/magnetic geometry, such as the alignment between the solar terminator and the magnetic meridian, the model was first driven with seasonally and longitudinally averaged winds (which includes seasonally averaged zonal‐mean winds and migrating tides). This reproduces the observed PRE variability with a correlation of 0.44. Incorporating longitudinally and seasonally varying wind patterns improves the correlation to 0.68. This suggests that climatological wind variability is an important driver of PRE variability, but future work is needed to account for the missing variability. Potential missing drivers include conductivity variability near the terminator and mesoscale wind features such as the solar terminator wave. 

Abstract Numerical forecasts of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial ionosphere are made based on data from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) following the method outlined in a previous study. Data are selected from pairs of successive orbits. Data from the first orbit in the pair are used to initialize and force a numerical forecast simulation, and data from the second orbit are used to validate the results 104 min later. Data from the IVM plasma density and drifts instrument and the MIGHTI red‐line thermospheric winds instrument are used to force the forecast model. Thirteen (16) data set pairs from August (October), 2022, are considered. Forecasts produced one false negative in August and another false negative in October. Possible causes of forecast discrepancies are evaluated including the failure to initialize the numerical simulations with electron density profiles measured concurrently. Volume emission 135.6‐nm OI profiles from the Far Ultraviolet (FUV) instrument on ICON are considered in the evaluation. 

Abstract Measurements from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) form the basis of direct numerical forecast simulations of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorialFregion ionosphere. ICON data are selected and used to initialize and force the simulations and then to test the results one orbit later when the satellite revisits the same longitude. Data from the IVM plasma density and drifts instrument and the MIGHTI red‐line thermospheric winds instrument are used to force the simulation. Data from IVM are also used to test for irregularities (electrically polarized plasma depletions). Fourteen datasets from late March 2022, were examined. The simulations correctly predicted the occurrence or non‐occurrence of irregularities 12 times while producing one false positive and one false negative. This demonstrates that the important telltales of instability are present in the ICON state variables and that the important mechanisms for irregularity formation are captured by the simulation code. Possible refinements to the forecast strategy are discussed.