Measurements from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) form the basis of direct numerical forecast simulations of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial
This content will become publicly available on March 1, 2025
Numerical forecasts of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial ionosphere are made based on data from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) following the method outlined in a previous study. Data are selected from pairs of successive orbits. Data from the first orbit in the pair are used to initialize and force a numerical forecast simulation, and data from the second orbit are used to validate the results 104 min later. Data from the IVM plasma density and drifts instrument and the MIGHTI red‐line thermospheric winds instrument are used to force the forecast model. Thirteen (16) data set pairs from August (October), 2022, are considered. Forecasts produced one false negative in August and another false negative in October. Possible causes of forecast discrepancies are evaluated including the failure to initialize the numerical simulations with electron density profiles measured concurrently. Volume emission 135.6‐nm OI profiles from the Far Ultraviolet (FUV) instrument on ICON are considered in the evaluation.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2230365
- PAR ID:
- 10536592
- Publisher / Repository:
- JGR: Space Physics
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather
- Volume:
- 22
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1542-7390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
Abstract F region ionosphere. ICON data are selected and used to initialize and force the simulations and then to test the results one orbit later when the satellite revisits the same longitude. Data from the IVM plasma density and drifts instrument and the MIGHTI red‐line thermospheric winds instrument are used to force the simulation. Data from IVM are also used to test for irregularities (electrically polarized plasma depletions). Fourteen datasets from late March 2022, were examined. The simulations correctly predicted the occurrence or non‐occurrence of irregularities 12 times while producing one false positive and one false negative. This demonstrates that the important telltales of instability are present in the ICON state variables and that the important mechanisms for irregularity formation are captured by the simulation code. Possible refinements to the forecast strategy are discussed. -
Abstract This study assesses the potential influence of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) data assimilation on the forecast skill of tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific in September–October 2019 through a regional model. Data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate mission II are applied. The forecast skill considers the hits and misses for nine developing cases and the false alarms and correct negatives for 23 non‐developing cases. Forecasts assimilating GNSS RO data reduce the false alarm ratio by 20% and increase the accuracy rate by 19%, compared to forecasts without GNSS RO data. Assimilation of GNSS RO data increases mid‐level moisture around the disturbance centers at the initial time of the forecasts. It also increases low‐level vorticity for developing cases but decreases vorticity throughout most of the troposphere for non‐developing cases. These lead to improved forecast performance for tropical cyclone formation.
-
Abstract This paper investigates the local and global ionospheric responses to the 2022 Tonga volcano eruption, using ground‐based Global Navigation Satellite System total electron content (TEC), Swarm in situ plasma density measurements, the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) Ion Velocity Meter (IVM) data, and ionosonde measurements. The main results are as follows: (a) A significant local ionospheric hole of more than 10 TECU depletion was observed near the epicenter ∼45 min after the eruption, comprising of several cascading TEC decreases and quasi‐periodic oscillations. Such a deep local plasma hole was also observed by space‐borne in situ measurements, with an estimated horizontal radius of 10–15° and persisted for more than 10 hr in ICON‐IVM ion density profiles until local sunrise. (b) Pronounced post‐volcanic evening equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) were continuously observed across the wide Asia‐Oceania area after the arrival of volcano‐induced waves; these caused a
N edecrease of 2–3 orders of magnitude at Swarm/ICON altitude between 450 and 575 km, covered wide longitudinal ranges of more than 140°, and lasted around 12 hr. (c) Various acoustic‐gravity wave modes due to volcano eruption were observed by accurate Beidou geostationary orbit (GEO) TEC, and the huge ionospheric hole was mainly caused by intense shock‐acoustic impulses. TEC rate of change index revealed globally propagating ionospheric disturbances at a prevailing Lamb‐wave mode of ∼315 m/s; the large‐scale EPBs could be seeded by acoustic‐gravity resonance and coupling to less‐damped Lamb waves, under a favorable condition of volcano‐induced enhancement of dusktime plasma upward E×B drift and postsunset rise of the equatorial ionospheric F‐layer. -
Retrospect and prospect of ionospheric weather observed by FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC and FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2Abstract FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) constellation of six micro-satellites was launched into the circular low-earth orbit at 800 km altitude with a 72-degree inclination angle on 15 April 2006, uniformly monitoring the ionosphere by the GPS (Global Positioning System) Radio Occultation (RO). Each F3/C satellite is equipped with a TIP (Tiny Ionospheric Photometer) observing 135.6 nm emissions and a TBB (Tri-Band Beacon) for conducting ionospheric tomography. More than 2000 RO profiles per day for the first time allows us globally studying three-dimensional ionospheric electron density structures and formation mechanisms of the equatorial ionization anomaly, middle-latitude trough, Weddell/Okhotsk Sea anomaly, etc. In addition, several new findings, such as plasma caves, plasma depletion bays, etc., have been reported. F3/C electron density profiles together with ground-based GPS total electron contents can be used to monitor, nowcast, and forecast ionospheric space weather. The S4 index of GPS signal scintillations recorded by F3/C is useful for ionospheric irregularities monitoring as well as for positioning, navigation, and communication applications. F3/C was officially decommissioned on 1 May 2020 and replaced by FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 (F7/C2). F7/C2 constellation of six small satellites was launched into the circular low-Earth orbit at 550 km altitude with a 24-degree inclination angle on 25 June 2019. F7/C2 carries an advanced TGRS (Tri Gnss (global navigation satellite system) Radio occultation System) instrument, which tracks more than 4000 RO profiles per day. Each F7/C2 satellite also has a RFB (Radio Reference Beacon) on board for ionospheric tomography and an IVM (Ion Velocity Meter) for measuring ion temperature, velocity, and density. F7/C2 TGRS, IVM, and RFB shall continue to expand the F3/C success in the ionospheric space weather forecasting.more » « less
-
Abstract Numerical weather prediction models often fail to correctly forecast convection initiation (CI) at night. To improve our understanding of such events, researchers collected a unique dataset of thermodynamic and kinematic remote sensing profilers as part of the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) experiment. This study evaluates the impacts made to a nocturnal CI forecast on 26 June 2015 by assimilating a network of atmospheric emitted radiance interferometers (AERIs), Doppler lidars, radio wind profilers, high-frequency rawinsondes, and mobile surface observations using an advanced, ensemble-based data assimilation system. Relative to operational forecasts, assimilating the PECAN dataset improves the timing, location, and orientation of the CI event. Specifically, radio wind profilers and rawinsondes are shown to be the most impactful instrument by enhancing the moisture advection into the region of CI in the forecast. Assimilating thermodynamic profiles collected by the AERIs increases midlevel moisture and improves the ensemble probability of CI in the forecast. The impacts of assimilating the radio wind profilers, AERI retrievals, and rawinsondes remain large throughout forecasting the growth of the CI event into a mesoscale convective system. Assimilating Doppler lidar and surface data only slightly improves the CI forecast by enhancing the convergence along an outflow boundary that partially forces the nocturnal CI event. Our findings suggest that a mesoscale network of profiling and surface instruments has the potential to greatly improve short-term forecasts of nocturnal convection.