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Abstract Volcanic aerosols reduce global mean precipitation in the years after major eruptions, yet the mechanisms that produce this response have not been rigorously identified. Volcanic aerosols alter the atmosphere's energy balance, with precipitation changes being one pathway by which the atmosphere acts to return toward equilibrium. By examining the atmosphere's energy budget in climate model simulations using radiative kernels, we explain the global precipitation reduction as largely a consequence of Earth's surface cooling in response to volcanic aerosols reflecting incoming sunlight. These aerosols also directly add energy to the atmosphere by absorbing outgoing longwave radiation, which is a major cause of precipitation decline in the first post‐eruption year. We additionally identify factors limiting the post‐eruption precipitation decline, and provide evidence that our results are robust across climate models. 

Abstract We critically reexamine the question of whether volcanic eruptions cause surface warming over Eurasia in winter, in the light of recent modeling studies that have suggested internal variability may overwhelm any forced volcanic response, even for the very largest eruptions during the Common Era. Focusing on the last millennium, we combine model output, instrumental observations, tree-ring records, and ice cores to build a new temperature reconstruction that specifically targets the boreal winter season. We focus on 20 eruptions over the last millennium with volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSIs) larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We find that only 7 of these 20 large events are followed by warm surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia in the first posteruption winter. Examining the 13 events that show cold posteruption anomalies, we find no correlation between the amplitude of winter cooling and VSSI mass. We also find no evidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation is correlated with VSSI in winter, a key element of the proposed mechanism through which large, low-latitude eruptions might cause winter warming over Eurasia. Furthermore, by inspecting individual eruptions rather than combining events into a superposed epoch analysis, we are able to reconcile our findings with those of previous studies. Analysis of two additional paleoclimatic datasets corroborates the lack of posteruption Eurasian winter warming. Our findings, covering the entire last millennium, confirm the findings of most recent modeling studies and offer important new evidence that large, low-latitude eruptions are not, in general, followed by significant surface wintertime warming over Eurasia. 

Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.