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1. Forests on the move: Tracking climate‐related treeline changes in mountains of the northeastern United States

   https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14708  

   Tourville, Jordon; Publicover, David; Dovciak, Martin (December 2023, Journal of Biogeography)

   Alpine treeline ecotones are influenced by environmental drivers and are anticipated to shift their locations in response to changing climate. Our goal was to determine the extent of recent climate‐induced treeline advance in the northeastern United States, and we hypothesized that treelines have advanced upslope in complex ways depending on treeline structure and environmental conditions. Location: White Mountain National Forest (New Hampshire) and Baxter State Park (Maine), USA. Taxon: High‐elevation tree species—Abies balsamea, Picea mariana and Betula cordata. Methods: We compared current and historical high‐resolution aerial imagery to quantify the advance of treelines over the last four decades, and link treeline changes to treeline form (demography) and environmental drivers. Spatial analyses of the aerial images were coupled with ground surveys of forest vegetation and topographical features to ground‐truth treeline classification and provide information on treeline demography and additional potential drivers of treeline locations. We used multiple linear regression models to examine the importance of both topographic and climatic variables on treeline advance. Results: Regional treelines have significantly shifted upslope over the past several decades (on average by 3 m/decade). Gradual diffuse treelines (characterized by declining tree density) showed significantly greater upslope shifts (5 m/decade) compared to other treeline forms, suggesting that both climate warming and treeline demography are important correlates of treeline shifts. Topographical features (slope, aspect) as well as climate (accumulated growing degree days, AGDD) explained significant variation in the magnitude of treeline advance (R2 > = 0.32). Main Conclusions: The observed advance of treelines is consistent with the hypothesis that climate warming induces upslope treeline shifts. Overall, our findings suggest that gradual diffuse treelines at high elevations may be indicative of climate warming more than other alpine treeline ecotones and thus they can inform us about past and ongoing climatic changes. 

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2. The climate envelope of Alaska’s northern treelines: implications for controlling factors and future treeline advance. Primary data and analyses 2019 - 2021

   https://doi.org/10.18739/A2ZK55N5M  

   Maher, Colin; Dial, Roman; Pastick, Neal; Hewitt, Rebecca; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Sullivan, Patrick (January 2022, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   Understanding the key mechanisms that control northern treelines is important to accurately predict biome shifts and terrestrial feedbacks to climate. At a global scale, it has long been observed that elevational and latitudinal treelines occur at similar mean growing season air temperature (GSAT) isotherms, inspiring the growth limitation hypothesis (GLH) that cold GSAT limits aboveground growth of treeline trees, with mean treeline GSAT ~6-7 degrees celsius (°C). Treelines with mean GSAT warmer than 6-7 °C may indicate other limiting factors. Many treelines globally are not advancing despite warming, and other climate variables are rarely considered at broad scales. Our goals were to test whether current boreal treelines in northern Alaska correspond with the GLH isotherm, determine which environmental factors are most predictive of treeline presence, and to identify areas beyond the current treeline where advance is most likely. We digitized ~12,400 kilometers (km) of treelines (greater than 26K points) and computed seasonal climate variables across northern Alaska. We then built a generalized additive model predicting treeline presence to identify key factors determining treeline. Two metrics of mean GSAT at Alaska’s northern treelines were consistently warmer than the 6-7 °C isotherm (means of 8.5 °C and 9.3 °C), indicating that direct physiological limitation from low GSAT is unlikely to explain the position of treelines in northern Alaska. Our final model included cumulative growing degree-days, near-surface (≤ 1 meters (m)) permafrost probability, and growing season total precipitation, which together may represent the importance of soil temperature. Our results indicate that mean GSAT may not be the primary driver of treeline in northern Alaska or that its effect is mediated by other more proximate, and possibly non-climatic, controls. Our model predicts treeline potential in several areas beyond current treelines, pointing to possible routes of treeline advance if unconstrained by non-climatic factors. 

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3. The climate envelope of Alaska’s northern treelines: implications for controlling factors and future treeline advance. Mapping seasonal climate variables 2019 - 2021.

   https://doi.org/10.18739/A2GQ6R35W  

   Maher, Colin; Dial, Roman; Pastick, Neal; Hewitt, Rebecca; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Sullivan, Patrick (January 2022, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   Understanding the key mechanisms that control northern treelines is important to accurately predict biome shifts and terrestrial feedbacks to climate. At a global scale, it has long been observed that elevational and latitudinal treelines occur at similar mean growing season air temperature (GSAT) isotherms, inspiring the growth limitation hypothesis (GLH) that cold GSAT limits aboveground growth of treeline trees, with mean treeline GSAT ~6-7 degrees celsius (°C). Treelines with mean GSAT warmer than 6-7 °C may indicate other limiting factors. Many treelines globally are not advancing despite warming, and other climate variables are rarely considered at broad scales. Our goals were to test whether current boreal treelines in northern Alaska correspond with the GLH isotherm, determine which environmental factors are most predictive of treeline presence, and to identify areas beyond the current treeline where advance is most likely. We digitized ~12,400 kilometers (km) of treelines (greater than 26K (26,000) points) and computed seasonal climate variables across northern Alaska. We then built a generalized additive model predicting treeline presence to identify key factors determining treeline. Two metrics of mean GSAT at Alaska’s northern treelines were consistently warmer than the 6-7 °C isotherm (means of 8.5 °C and 9.3 °C), indicating that direct physiological limitation from low GSAT is unlikely to explain the position of treelines in northern Alaska. Our final model included cumulative growing degree-days, near-surface (≤ 1 meters (m)) permafrost probability, and growing season total precipitation, which together may represent the importance of soil temperature. Our results indicate that mean GSAT may not be the primary driver of treeline in northern Alaska or that its effect is mediated by other more proximate, and possibly non-climatic, controls. Our model predicts treeline potential in several areas beyond current treelines, pointing to possible routes of treeline advance if unconstrained by non-climatic factors. 

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4. Organic layers preserved in ice patches: A new record of Holocene environmental change on the Beartooth Plateau, USA

   https://doi.org/10.1177/09596836231211877  

   Alt, Mio; Puseman, Kathryn; Lee, Craig M; Pederson, Gregory T; McConnell, Joseph R; Chellman, Nathan J; McWethy, David B (March 2024, The Holocene)

   Growing season temperatures play a crucial role in controlling treeline elevation at regional to global scales. However, understanding of treeline dynamics in response to long-term changes in temperature is limited. In this study, we analyze pollen, plant macrofossils, and charcoal preserved in organic layers within a 10,400-year-old ice patch and in sediment from a 6000-year-old wetland located above present-day treeline in the Beartooth Mountains, Wyoming, to explore the relationship between Holocene climate variability and shifts in treeline elevation. Pollen data indicate a lower-than-present treeline between 9000 and 6200 cal yr BP during the warm, dry summer and cold winter conditions of the early Holocene. Increases in arboreal pollen at 6200 cal yr BP suggest an upslope treeline expansion when summers became cooler and wetter. A possible hiatus in the wetland record at ca. 4200–3000 cal yr BP suggests increased snow and ice cover at high elevations and a lowering of treeline. Treeline position continued to fluctuate with growing season warming and cooling during the late-Holocene. Periods of high fire activity correspond with times of increased woody cover at high elevations. The two records indicate that climate was an important driver of vegetation and treeline change during the Holocene. Early Holocene treeline was governed by moisture limitations, whereas late-Holocene treeline was sensitive to increases in growing season temperatures. Climate projections for the region suggest warmer temperatures could decrease effective growing season moisture at high elevations resulting in a reduction of treeline elevation. 

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5. Vegetation classifications for random points in the Agashashok River watershed in 1952, 1979 and 2015

   https://doi.org/10.18739/A23N20F45  

   Sullivan, Patrick; Dial, Roman; Terskaia, Anna (January 2020, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   Climate change is expected to increase woody vegetation abundance in the Arctic, yet the magnitude, spatial pattern and pathways of change remain uncertain. We compared historical orthophotos photos (1952 and 1979) with high-resolution satellite imagery (2015) to examine six decades of change in abundance of white spruce (Picea glauca) and tall shrubs (Salix spp., Alnus spp.) near the Agashashok River in northwest Alaska. We established ~3000 random points within our ~5500 hectare (ha) study area for classification into nine cover types. To examine physiographic controls on tree abundance, we fit multinomial log-linear models with predictors derived from a digital elevation model and with arctic tundra, alpine tundra and “tree” as levels of a categorical response variable. Between 1952 and 2015, points classified as arctic and alpine tundra decreased by 31% and 15%, respectively. Meanwhile, tall shrubs increased by 86%, trees mixed with tall shrubs increased by 385% and forest increased by 84%. Tundra with tall shrubs rarely transitioned to forest. The best multinomial model explained 71% of variation in cover and included elevation, slope and an interaction between slope and “northness”. Treeline was defined as the elevation where the probability of tree presence equaled that of tundra. Mean treeline elevation in 2015 was 202 meters (m), corresponding with a June-August mean air temperature greater than 11° Celsius (C), which is greater than 4°C warmer than the 6-7°C isotherm associated with global treeline elevations. Our results show dramatic increases in the abundance of trees and tall shrubs, question the universality of air temperature as a predictor of treeline elevation and suggest two mutually exclusive pathways of vegetation change, because tundra that gained tall shrubs rarely transitioned to forest. Conversion of tundra to tall shrubs and forest has important and potentially contrasting implications for carbon cycling, surface energy exchange and wildlife habitat in the Arctic. 

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