Mapping the rheology of the Central Chile subduction zone with aftershocks: MAPPING RHEOLOGY WITH AFTERSHOCKS
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Abstract Our study is to build an aftershock catalog with a low magnitude of completeness for the 2020 Mw 6.5 Stanley, Idaho, earthquake. This is challenging because of the low signal-to-noise ratios for recorded seismograms. Therefore, we apply convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and use 2D time–frequency feature maps as inputs for aftershock detection. Another trained CNN is used to automatically pick P-wave arrival times, which are then used in both nonlinear and double-difference earthquake location algorithms. Our new one-month-long catalog has 4644 events and a completeness magnitude (Mc) 1.9, which has over seven times more events and 0.9 lower Mc than the current U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center catalog. The distribution and expansion of these aftershocks improve the resolution of two north-northwest-trending faults with different dip angles, providing further support for a central stepover region that changed the earthquake rupture trajectory and induced sustained seismicity.more » « less
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Abstract The interpretation of precursory seismicity can depend on a critical nucleation length scale h*, yet h* is largely unconstrained in the seismogenic crust. To estimate h* and associated earthquake nucleation processes at 2–7 km depths in Oklahoma, we studied seismic activity occurring prior to nine M 2.5–3.0 earthquakes that are aftershocks of the 3 September 2016 M 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, earthquake. Four of the nine M 2.5–3.0 aftershocks studied did not have detectable seismicity within a 2 km radius of their hypocenters in the preceding 16 hr time windows. For the other five events, which did exhibit foreshock sequences, we estimated the static stress changes associated with each event of each sequence based on precise earthquake relocations and magnitude estimates. By carefully examining the spatiotemporal characteristics, we found all five of these M 2.5–3.0 aftershocks, and 70% of our studied events were plausibly triggered via static stress transfer from nearby earthquakes occurring hours to seconds earlier, consistent with the cascade nucleation model and a small h* in this region. The smallest earthquakes we could quantitatively study were M −1.5 events, which likely have 1–2 m rupture dimensions. The existence of these small events also supports a small nucleation length scale h*≤1 m, consistent with laboratory estimates. However, our observations cannot rule out more complicated earthquake initiation processes involving interactions between foreshocks and slow slip. Questions also remain as to whether aftershocks initiate differently from more isolated earthquakes.more » « less
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Megathrust earthquakes release and transfer stress that has accumulated over hundreds of years, leading to large aftershocks that can be highly destructive. Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of megathrust aftershocks is key to mitigating the seismic hazard. However, conflicting observations show aftershocks concentrated either along the rupture surface itself, along its periphery or well beyond it, and they can persist for a few years to decades. Here we present aftershock data following the four largest megathrust earthquakes since 1960, focusing on the change in seismicity rate following the best-recorded 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which shows an initially high aftershock rate on the rupture surface that quickly shuts down, while a zone up to ten times larger forms a ring of enhanced seismicity around it. We find that the aftershock pattern of Tohoku and the three other megathrusts can be explained by rate and state Coulomb stress transfer. We suggest that the shutdown in seismicity in the rupture zone may persist for centuries, leaving seismicity gaps that can be used to identify prehistoric megathrust events. In contrast, the seismicity of the surrounding area decays over 4-6 decades, increasing the seismic hazard after a megathrust earthquake.more » « less
